New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 10/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots +7.0

Total-Over-Under: 48

Highmark Stadium is the location where the Buffalo Bills (3-0) will meet the New England Patriots (1-2) on Sunday. New England opens this contest as 7-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over-under has been set at 48.

The New England Patriots step on the gridiron holding a record of 1-2 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Patriots played against the Jacksonville Jaguars and took a loss by a final of 35-6. Drake Maye finished 14-25 with 199 yards through the air. He had a QB rating of 48.6 and ended the game with 2 picks. TreVeyon Henderson led the offense in rushing for the Patriots with 8 totes for 23 yds (2.9 yards per carry). Mack Hollins had an average of 14.5 yards per reception by notching 87 yds on 6 catches. The New England Patriots ran the rock 26 different times and amassed 83 yds, earning them an average of 3.2 yards per attempt. Overall, they tallied 57 plays for 317 yds. New England allowed 19 completions on 29 tries for a total of 178 yards, and a completion percentage of 65.5%. When it came to stopping the run, the Patriots gave up 137 yards on 30 attempts, which is 4.6 yds per run allowed.

The Patriots have recorded 921 total yards on the season. New England has earned 23 first downs offensively, and they have been hurt by 22 infractions for 149 yards. When analyzing putting points on the board, New England has collected 1 passing touchdown and 1 rushing touchdown. They have turned the ball over 8 different times (6 picks and 2 lost fumbles). As a team, they're averaging 109.3 rushing yds which ranks them 14th in football. Concerning getting the ball into the endzone, the AFC representatives are averaging 12.0 points per game.

The Patriots sit 6th in professional football if you examine their defensive prowess, relinquishing 17.0 PPG. The opposition is running for an average of 4.3 yds per attempt on the ground and 108.3 rush yds per contest over the course of this season. With reference to passing yards, the Patriots have yielded 510 total yards, ranking this team at 2nd in professional football. They have surrendered 170.0 yds per contest through the air, and are granting a completion percentage of 63.4%. Altogether, they are relinquishing 278.3 total yards per contest, ranking this team at 5th in professional football. They have granted 4 touchdowns via the pass, along with 2 touchdowns via the rush. Overall, they have relinquished 325 yards via the running game in 3 games so far this season.

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The Bills come into this matchup holding a record of 3-0 over the course of this season. In their last contest, the Bills got the win with a final of 24-16 when they faced the Los Angeles Chargers. Josh Allen finished the game with 204 yards on 16-26 through the air while his quarterback rating was 54. He tossed 2 picks and his Y-A was 7.8 yards. D.J. Moore was the leading receiver for the Bills, hauling in 6 balls for 67 yards (11.2 yds per catch). James Cook carried the football 24 times for 154 yards, finishing the contest with 6.4 yds per attempt for Buffalo. The Bills finished the game with a total of 350 yds while running 59 plays (5.9 yards per play). Buffalo ran for 5.3 yds per carry, totaling 176 yards on 33 carries. Buffalo gave up 28 run attempts for 131 yds (4.7 yards per carry). The Bills pass defense gave up a completion rate of 58.8%, surrendering 217 yards on 20 out of 34 through the air.

The Buffalo Bills hold an average of 401.7 yards per contest, which has them sitting 4th in football. They hold an average of 155.0 rushing yds per game, and have carried the football for 465 yards. They have allowed 2 picks while granting 3 fumbles lost, and have been able to earn 37 first downs. The Buffalo offense has granted 219 total yards on 25 infractions, which ranks them 5th in football in terms of helping out the opposition. On the season, the Bills have a total of 740 passing yds and are averaging 246.7 passing yds per contest, which ranks them 9th in football. With reference to putting points on the board, the Bills are ranking 1st in professional football, maintaining an average of 33.7 points per contest.

They have granted 7 touchdowns via the pass and 254.3 yards through the air per contest, which ranks them 27th in football. Buffalo has surrendered a total of 321 running yards (107.0 total yards per outing), along with 2 touchdowns to runners on the campaign. Their defense has accrued 3 takeaways (2 forced fumbles and 1 interception) so far this year. Altogether, they have yielded 78 points in total. The Bills defense has taken the field for 199 plays, putting them 27th in professional football. The Bills are allowing 26.0 PPG, ranking this team at 22nd in professional football.

Who will win tonight's Patriots-Bills NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Patriots +7.0

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