Ferringo NFL Report: K-Fed, T.O. Drop the Ball
by Robert Ferringo - 11/07/2006
Here are a few observations from a enjoyable (see: profitable) weekend of NFL football:
- Over the course of the past three weekends the underdogs have posted a 23-17 mark against the spread. It appears that the books have gotten over that whole "favorites won't stop covering!" thing, Also, home dogs have been an automatic play, going 18-9 ATS over the course of the past six weeks.
- Anyone who thinks that you shouldn't lose your job to injury still believes in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. If a starter goes down and his replacement plays as well, or better, than the injured starter, why would you make a change? Chemistry is such a huge issue, why would you rock the boat just to get some guy who was unlucky enough to get injured back in the lineup?
To me, it's blatantly obvious that David Garrard and Damon Huard should start for the rest of the year - or at least until they put up two or three horrid games in a row. And I know that I'm betting against either team that goes back to Byron Leftwich or Trent Green.
- ESPN bobbleheads sound really immature to me most of the time. They really do - squabbling about the most trivial and insignificant issues in sports, and trying to make them seem like a really big deal.
Case in point: how whiny did Tony Kornheiser and the rest of the MNF crew sound while talking about that Jerramy Stevens-Tyler Brayton incident? Honestly, in a game of such pure violence and terror, a knee to the groin (and the guy didn't even go down) is cause for an uproar? What a bunch of candy-asses.
- What a strange game. Buffalo was getting completely dominated by Green Bay in the second half of that game. I mean totally mauled. But two plays resulted in a double-digit win: a blown coverage by Mike McKenzie and a fortunate INT in the end zone thrown by Brett Favre.
- Atlanta had six dropped passes on Sunday. It must be something in the water in Georgia, because the UGA wideouts are by far the absolute worst in the NCAA at catching the ball.
- If Dallas misses the playoffs by one game, think back to that dropped touchdown pass against Washington. Then you can honestly and truly say that T.O. cost them their season.
- After a season-low 0-4 ATS mark in Week 5, the AFC has owned the NFC. The boys from the AFC are 7-2 ATS against their NFC counterparts over the past two weeks, and 11-7 ATS in the last four.
- Wow. Britney and K-Fed didn't last. I'm shocked. The only question now is whether he can top Shawn Kemp's mark of seven illegitimate children. I mean, can we get a line on this or what?
- I loved the emotion that Mario Williams showed in the Meadowlands. And it wasn't just his mocking jump shot after a sack (which was great). After an absolutely atrocious roughing the passer penalty on a third down during New York's first drive of the second half, Williams almost lost it. I mean, I thought he was going to go Orpheus Roye on the official. Those plays showed that he doesn't give a damn about the hype and is just trying to be a football player.
Oh, and by the way, you can't say that Reggie Bush is playing that much better than Williams now.
- The Giants didn't cover, but they did win. And that does say something about this team. They went into their game against Houston without a ton of key players. In those situations in the past the G-Men would fold up the tents and take a poor loss.
- I wonder if Randy Moss wishes he had been a better teammate and human being in Minnesota? He's a scumbag, and it brings me nothing but joy to watch him rot in Oakland.
- Kansas City continues to impress me. That was a two-touchdown win, on the road, against a team with a winning record, and in a place they never play well. Over the past month, no one has impressed me more than K.C. and the Giants. They're a combined 8-3 ATS.
- Cleveland has managed 45 combined points in its last two games. That's more than any two-game total since the middle of 2004.
- Kudos to Allen Eastman on his NFL Total of the Year - the first half 'under' in the Minnesota-San Fran game. Those two teams still haven't cleared that number!
- The Bengals have lost five in a row against the spread and absolutely imploded on Sunday. Hey guys, you're not that good!!!
And its funny, I don't get any more e-mails from people calling me crazy for saying that Tampa Bay and Cincinnati weren't going to be that good this season. Weird.
- Thank you to Adam Vinatieri for coming through in the clutch for me again. This time it was missing that late field goal to keep this total 'under' 48.5.
- Chicago has turned the ball over six times in a game twice in its last three games. Who does that? I don't even think the Martz Rams were that careless with the ball. The Bears weakness on offense was again exposed on Sunday:
1. They can't handle pressure up the middle. Minnesota did the same thing to Chicago and the Bears never adjusted by calling quick slants. Miami obviously had watched that tape because they were coming straight up the gut with blitzes, and Grossman reacted by heaving the ball downfield off his back foot.
2. They are dangerously thin at wide receiver. Bernard Berrian - one of the breakout offensive players of the year - will likely miss the next three weeks. Justin Gage is a fringe NFL player, at best.
- I think DeAngelo Hall is an outstanding cover corner. But the guy is a dirty player. He was in college, and that shot he took at Jon Kitna - one of the nicest guys in the NFL - was bush league stuff.
- Kyle Forney, Atlanta's starting right guard, has had his right shoulder pop out of place three times in five games. Ouch. Also, I don't know why Atlanta kept guard Tyson Clabo inactive last week when he's played so well recently.
- "I don't like them. I don't like their attitude. I don't like their approach to the game, and I don't like their actions on the field." That was Bertrand Berry on an Arizona radio station this week.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at email@example.com or check out his Insider Page here.