NBA Basketball Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 3/10/2014
There are about 20 games left in the NBA's regular season. So which is best right now: Get some struggles out of the way because there is plenty of time left to fix things before the playoffs, or start peaking now and carry it into the postseason?
It's interesting how the six top NBA title contenders are squarely in one of those two categories at the moment. Atop the Eastern Conference, the Pacers have lost four straight. For the most part, the Evan Turner acquisition for Indiana has been a bust. However, the Pacers could see center Andrew Bynum make his Indiana debut Friday against the comically bad Philadelphia 76ers. He won't play a ton of minutes, clearly, but the Pacers want him in game shape and to know the system in time for the postseason. Indiana has been a terrible bet for a while. It has failed to cover seven straight games and 11 of 12. Since the all-star break, Indiana has been outscored by 1.9 points per game.
While there may be cause for concern there, I don't think there is in Miami. The Heat entered Monday's home game against Washington having lost three straight, but there is no shame in falling at Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. LeBron James hasn't been the same since his 61-point night last Monday against Charlotte. He has 58 total points since then and is 23-for-59 shooting overall and 1-for-9 from 3-pont range. Probably just a bit tired. So much for that MVP talk, though. James is +220 on Sportsbook.ag to win the award, with Kevin Durant at -300.
Durant's Thunder also are scuffling in losing two straight and five of eight . Everyone wants to blame Russell Westbrook's return for this, but he's averaging 20.9 points, 7.4 assists and 5.4 rebounds in the eight games since the all-star break. Durant's numbers haven't suffered with Westbrook in there. Mostly it's the defense has gotten worse as the Thunder clearly miss Thabo Sefolosha and to a lesser extent Kendrick Perkins. OKC's stunning loss to the Lakers on Sunday was the first time the worst team in a conference beat the best in March or later in 13 years.
Meanwhile, the Spurs, Rockets and Clippers are all surging as they have won a combined 18 straight entering this week. Watch for San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich to really start monitoring the Big 3's minutes in these final 20 games even if it means not getting the West's top seed. For example, you might see one take a seat Wednesday when the Spurs host the Blazers a night after visiting Chicago (or one rest there). The Spurs are otherwise healthy as are the Rockets. The Clippers want to get Jamal Crawford right and determine whether J.J. Redick will be able to contribute anything the rest of the way.
On Sportsbook.ag, those are your six title contenders: Miami (+190), Indiana (+400), Oklahoma City (+550), San Antonio (+650), the Clippers (+1200) and the Rockets (+1700). Those Houston odds look pretty good as the Rockets are an NBA-best 23-6 since Jan. 1. Last week the Rockets became the 10th team this season to play the Heat and the Pacers during the same week and the first of those 10 to win both. Houston and the Clippers are the only teams in the NBA this year not to lose as many as three straight games.
Knicks Still Have A Pulse
I had all but given up on the Knicks reaching the playoffs but am now having second thoughts. They have won three straight entering Monday's sure victory over Philly. It's not out of the question a 10-game winning streak could be coming. After Philly here is the schedule: at Boston (second of a back-to-back for Celtics and they will likely be without Rajon Rondo), vs. Milwaukee, vs. Indiana, at Philly, vs. Cleveland, at the Lakers, at Kings. Those are all very winnable. Tyson Chandler missed Monday's game for personal reasons but should be back against Boston.
Unfortunately for New York, it is done with current East No. 8 Atlanta. The Hawks are likely to lose Monday in Utah for their 15th defeat in the past 16 games, but then they have four of their next five at home and can win them all: Bucks, Bobcats, Raptors, Pelicans. How sad will it be it the eighth playoff spot is decided in Atlanta's season finale at a Bucks team that is trying to lose? I still give the Knicks a solid shot if they can win six of their next eight at worst. Maybe the news that Phil Jackson will be joining the team's front office will be good karma. ESPN's Hollinger Power Rankings give New York a 13.3 percent chance of reaching the postseason and the Hawks 77.0.
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