Robert Ferringo Picks the Most Popular Super Bowl Props
Well, Sunday is The Big Game. And while I have already laid out my 2021 Super Bowl predictions pretty clear right here I wanted to give an update on where I stand on some of the more popular/ridiculous Super Bowl prop bets set to take place this weekend.
Now, I have already broken down which Super Bowl props to avoid in 2021 and given a relatively thorough analysis of why betting on the Super Bowl coin toss isn’t a high-value situation. However, despite my best efforts to avoid these props, I just can’t seem to shake them.
A betting website was looking for predictions on Super Bowl props: the coin toss, the color Gatorade in the winning coach’s Gatorade shower, the length of the national anthem, the number of songs in the halftime show and the Super Bowl MVP. They wanted my picks as part of a contest, with the tiebreaker being a prediction on the total number of passing yards on both teams.
To be clear: I don’t advocate betting on ANY of these props! These are exactly the kind of sucker bets that rope in billions (with a ‘B’) of dollars in action for the sportsbooks each year without any advantage for the players.
But I also know people. And like the Keto Diet, heroin or “Temptation Island,” people are going to do things that they shouldn’t because they enjoy them. So below I figured I would lay out my thoughts and predictions on popular Super Bowl props and let you decide for yourself whether to follow them, ignore them, or realize that you shouldn’t be betting on these things to begin with.
1. Coin Toss – Heads or Tails
Context is the key to any social interaction. Wearing a leather mask carrying a whip while offering kids candy on Halloween? Perfectly fine. Doing it on a Tuesday in January? You get the cops called. So it goes with the Super Bowl coin toss. Betting $100 or $500 on a random coin toss between friends would be seen as pathological, compulsive behavior. But when that coin is tossed at the Super Bowl, that makes it socially acceptable. Tails has hit on the coin toss six of the last seven years. You should never bet against the hot hand. So I will call HEADS, and I’ve never been so sure of anything in my life.
2. Gatorade Shower Color
I remember going to the grocery store last May. At that point it was the first time I had been in a store in over 10 weeks since my wife thought that if I left the house I would be walking into the opening scene of “Dawn of the Dead”. Most of the aisles were cleaned out. And I remember they had just one six-pack of yellow Gatorade left. Even on the eve of Judgment Day, no one wanted yellow Gatorade. So I bought it because I needed something (else) to mix my vodka with. I have to tell you: it was 1000% better than I remembered. Honestly. It was pretty solid. With that in mind, I’ll go with RED as the color of the winning Gatorade shower.
3. National Anthem – ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ 2:00 Minutes
The last time a duet crooned the National Anthem, it was Aaron Neville and Aretha Franklin back in Super Bowl 40. That took over two minutes (2:08), but you know both Neville and Aretha knew how to milk a note or 12. I’m still going to go a little against-the-grain here and call OVER. I think that having two people singing is going to lead to some awkward transitions, and at least one of them is going to go for a full-throated flourish. Those few seconds will help this one tuck over at 2:02.
4. Halftime Show – ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ 7.5 Songs
This one is going way OVER! Last year there were 15 songs from J-Lo and Shakira. The three years prior there were 10, 11 and eight songs played at the half. At 7.5, this line is as soft as a Tom Brady mouth kiss on one of his boys’ lips. I will hop on the ‘over’ here.
5. Super Bowl MVP
I hate this bet. HATE it. Quarterbacks have been named the Super Bowl MVP 14 times over the last 25 years. So it seems safe to throw your money down on one of the signal callers, right? No. Because the odds are shaded heavily toward the QBs. This year, Patrick Mahomes is -120 to win the MVP. You’re getting better odds on the coin toss – with fewer possible outcomes. Gun to my head I will still go with MAHOMES because football writers and broadcasters lack imagination. (But if you want a long shot, look at Travis Kelce.)
BONUS: TOTAL PASSING YARDS
So, I went back and checked out the average passing yards of the last five Super Bowls, the last 10 Super Bowls, Tampa Bay the last two years, Kansas City the last two years, Bruce Arians in his playoff coaching history, and Andy Reid in his playoff coaching history. I took all those numbers, threw them together, hit 88 miles per hour, and the flux capacitor spit out: 548 passing yards.
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