2014 Miami Dolphins Season Win Total Picks & Futures Odds
by Robert Ferringo - 6/9/2014
2013 Record: 8-8
2014 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 8.0
2014 Season Win Total Pick: 'Under'
As a pure football man, I am a fan of Miami coach Joe Philbin. But obviously he is pretty limited as an administrator and the Dolphins will try to rebound this season from a 2013 campaign marred by off-field issues.
The most tangible result from last year's "bullying scandal" is that Miami's offensive line has gone from a strength to a weakness. That further exposes Ryan Tannehill, who has yet to prove that he can A) stay healthy and B) be a productive, consistent quarterback at the NFL level. Miami doesn't have much of a running game to support Tannehill. So how the passing game comes together will be the critical factor for this Fins club.
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I like the makeup of this Dolphins defense, whichhas finished in the Top 10 in scoring for three straight seasons, and think it has a chance to be a very strong asset. However, they have been in the bottom half of the league in total yards in those seasons so something has to give. Also, Miami has been outscored on the season in four of the past five years yet still has managed to hover around .500. Those are statistical anomalies.
The season-defining portion of this year's schedule will be between Week 7 and Week 13. The Dolphins will play five of seven games on the road during that stretch with one of the home games coming on a short week against division rival Buffalo. They finish out with three of four games at home, including a revenge game against the Ravens. But it is not as if the Dolphins benefit from some huge home field advantage. Also, a lot of their most winnable games - against Oakland, Chicago, Detroit and Jacksonville - come on the road, which is rough.
Miami is tough to read. But the bottom line is that they are just 1-6 against their season win total and haven't cleared the bar the last five years. They have overachieved, statistically, and the dysfunction of this organization has even rubbed off on a football lifer like Philbin. I think they're going to be a high-risk, high-reward team with several big upsets swinging for and against them. But I wouldn't bet on them finishing over .500.
Dolphins Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 7, New England, 1 p.m.
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 14, at Buffalo, 1 p.m.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 21, Kansas City, 4:25 p.m.
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 28, at Oakland, 1 p.m. (in London)
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 12, Green Bay, 1 p.m.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 19, at Chicago, 1 p.m.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26, at Jacksonville, 1 p.m.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 2, San Diego, 1 p.m.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 9, at Detroit, 1 p.m.
Week 11: Thursday, Nov. 13, Buffalo, 8:25 p.m.
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 23, at Denver, 4:25 p.m.
Week 13: Monday, Dec. 1, at NY Jets, 8:30 p.m.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 7, Baltimore, 1 p.m.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14, at New England, 1 p.m.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21, Minnesota, 1 p.m.
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 28, NY Jets, 1 p.m.
Robert will be releasing his 2014 NFL Futures Picks on Thursday, Aug. 14. Last year's top two picks (8-Unit Play on Arizona 'over' 5.5 wins and 6-Unit Play on Kansas City over 7.0 wins) both won easily and he has hit his top NFL Futures Play (rated 7.0 or higher) in four straight seasons. For more information visit his Insider's Page HERE.
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