Giants vs Patriots Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
Our first losing Thursday of the season in Week 5 as we recommended Seattle at -1 against the Los Angeles Rams and "under" 49 points. Seattle did win, but it was a push on the spread with the final score 30-29. The Seahawks were lucky not to lose as Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein, arguably the best in the business not named Justin Tucker, missed a 44-yard field goal wide right with 11 seconds to go. Zuerlein had hit three field goals earlier in the game.
This week looks to be the Thursday mismatch of the season as the 5-0 New England Patriots host the 2-3 New York Giants. I hate the Giants being honest, but I'll always remember rooting for them in Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Ariz., because I didn't want the Patriots to finish unbeaten. I'm sure the members of the perfect 1972 Miami Dolphins were rooting hard for Big Blue too. Eli Manning and Co. upset the Patriots 17-14 in one of the biggest playoff stunners ever. Four years later, Eli did it to Tom Brady again in Super Bowl XLVI. Just think how close Brady and Bill Belichick are to having eight Super Bowl rings instead of six. Of course, the Patriots easily could have lost all six of those Super Bowls they won.
Belichick spent several years as a Giants assistant coach, really getting on the head coaching radar as the defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells from 1985-90. His defensive game plan from the Giants' 20-19 upset of the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXV has been placed in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Of course, Brady won't see Eli this time unless Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones gets hurt. Somewhat fitting that Brady is playing a Manning this week because he's going to pass brother Peyton for the second-most passing yards in NFL history on Thursday. Drew Brees is still pretty far ahead at No. 1.
Giants at Patriots Betting Story Lines
Related: NFL Betting Predictions Week 6
New York had been 2-0 under Jones, but he ran into a good defense Sunday and struggled some in a 28-10 home loss to Minnesota. He was 21-for-38 (missing open receivers a few times) for 182 yards, a touchdown and a pick. He didn't get much help from his ground game as it totaled just 64 yards on 20 carries.
The Giants were again without Saquon Barkley, but there's a possibility he returns this week from his ankle injury. His backup, Wayne Gallman, left with a concussion, so he's surely not playing this week. And on Monday it was revealed that No. 1 receiver Sterling Shepard suffered his second concussion of the season already and is going to be out for a while. That should mean a bigger role for Golden Tate, who returned from a four-game suspension on Sunday but didn't do much. Tight end Evan Engram was listed on the first injury report with a knee issue but isn't thought to be in risk of sitting here.
New England has looked fabulous thus far and is allowing just 6.8 points per game, which would obviously be a league record. However, other than Ben Roethlisberger, the Pats have faced all pretty bad quarterbacks in Miami's Josh Rosen/Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets' Luke Falk, Buffalo's Josh Allen and Washington's Colt McCoy in Sunday's 33-7 win in D.C. that ended the head coaching career of the Redskins' Jay Gruden. Brady threw for 348 yards and three scores to pass Brett Favre for third on the all-time passing yardage list.
On Monday, the team released veteran tight end Benjamin Watson. He just returned Sunday from a four-game suspension. The Patriots will go with four-year veteran Matt LaCosse and second-year player Ryan Izzo at tight end … unless maybe Rob Gronkowski unretires. New England also may be without receiver Phillip Dorsett on Thursday as he left vs. Washington with a hamstring injury. Could mean more action for Jakobi Meyers.
Giants at Patriots Betting Odds and Trends
At 5Dimes, New England is a 17.5-point favorite (+100) with a total of 43.5. On the moneyline , the Patriots are -1165 and Giants +750. On the alternate lines, the Pats are -17 (-110), -16.5 (-120) and -16 (-126). New York is 1-1 against the spread on the road and 2-0 "over/under." New England is 1-1 ATS at home and 1-1 O/U.
The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their past five following a double-digit home loss. They are 8-0 ATS in their past eight after scoring less than 15 points in the previous game. The Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 at home vs. teams with a losing road record. They are 4-1 ATS in their past five on Thursday. The under is 5-2 in the Giants' past seven in October. It's 19-7 in the Pats' past 26 vs. teams with a losing record. New York has covered the past five in the series. The under has hit in five of the previous seven.
Giants at Patriots Betting Prediction
Obviously no question which team wins here, but I think the Giants - especially if Barkley plays - can stay within 17 points. I'll take the 17.5 and go under. Something like 27-10.
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