2019 Miami Dolphins Odds to win the Super Bowl with Expert Betting Predictions
In 2016, the Miami Dolphins finished 10-6. It was their first time above .500 since 2008, and not coincidentally the first time in the playoffs since then as well. It seemed, finally, that the franchise had turned a corner. But then they won seven and six games the next two seasons. The Dolphins couldn't quit being the Dolphins, it appears. That led to a summer of big changes - new coach, new QB, new attitude; for what that's worth. But will it matter? Can Brian Flores win when the last five coaches haven't?
Miami Dolphins Coaching
The team hoped to tap into the mojo of their unbeatable divisional rival by hiring Brian Flores. He had most recently been the linebackers coach for the Patriots, but he joined the franchise in 2004 as a 23-year-old and had been there ever since. Head coaches from the Belichick coaching tree have had a mixed record - and much, much less than that if you only look at Nick Saban's NFL years. But Flores is as ingrained in the system as anyone, so you understand why the Dolphins made the hire. And Flores hired his staff well. Most notably, he brought in experienced head coach Jim Caldwell as his assistant head coach. And both of his coordinators are long-time Patriots staffers, so familiarity and chemistry are certain.
The coaching realm hasn't been without drama, though, and that's a potential concern. Flores hired Pat Flaherty, who has been an offensive line coaching the NFL since 2004, to guide the offensive trenches. But just four days into training camp, Flaherty was fired and replaced by Dave DeGuglielmo. It's an odd move - especially because the excuse was that Flaherty was struggling, and that seems unlikely given his experience. Flores was likely trying to set a tone, but going that nuclear that early makes me nervous about what could happen when the going actually gets tough.
Miami Dolphins Quarterback Situation
Big changes happened here as well. Ryan Tannehill just wasn't good enough, and the team finally owned the reality. But they don't have a lock of a solution to replace him. They acquired Josh Rosen, the highly-touted draft pick who was deemed redundant in Arizona after the Kyler Murray pick. Rosen had a rough rookie year, though, and has a lot to prove. And at this point he doesn't even seem like a lock to win the starting gig, as ageless wonder Ryan Fitzpatrick is also aboard and has made some noise early in training camp. Jake Rudock, who made some noise in his years in Detroit but never broke through, is also at camp. There is some real upside with this group, but nothing is certain - and it is no lock that they will have better QB player overall than last year.
How The Miami Dolphins Improved
The team made only six draft picks, and four came in the fifth round or later, so the impact from the rookie class won't be as big as it could be. DT Christian Wilkins from Clemson was a nice value pick at 13th, though. And the team locked down Xavien Howard, a very good corner, for the long term. Add in the change in QB - a change is a positive even if the improvement isn't immediately massive - and the coaching overhaul and there were some real positives.
How The Miami Dolphins Got Worse
It seems very odd that the team got so aggressive on the coaching and quarterback front then mostly stood pat beyond that. They made some small moves but largely sat out free agency. It feels tougher for a new coach to start a new era for the franchise when he largely has the same pieces to work with.
Miami Dolphins Schedule Analysis
Three of their first four games are at home, but it's not an easy schedule. They host three likely playoff teams in Baltimore, New England and the Chargers. And the road game is at Dallas, which won't be super easy, either. Of course, the home-heavy schedule early means that road games will catch up late, and indeed they close with three of four on the road. At tough trip to New England closes things out. But trips to the two New York teams are likely to be much easier, and a home game against the Bengals in between should be very manageable.
2019-20 Miami Dolphins Betting Odds and Trends
Oddsmakers do not love this team at all - at +12500 to win the Super Bowl they are currently the longest shot on the board. At +6600 they are also the longest shot to win the AFC, and at +2000 they are by far the longest shot to win the AFC East, too. They are at +50000 to have the best record in the NFL and are favored at +600 to have the worst record. The season win total is set at a very low, and league-worst, 4.5, with the "over" slightly favored at -130. Wilkins is a long shot to win the defensive rookie of the year at +3300, which makes sense given his position, among other things. If you hate money you can bet that Josh Rosen will have the top QB rating in the league at +15000, or you can get the same price for the most touchdowns, and an only slightly lower +12500 for passing yards. He's much more of a contender to lead the league in interceptions at +1200. DeVante Parker is a long shot, not surprisingly, to lead the league in passing yards at +15000. And, keeping with the trend of this offense, running back Kenyan Drake is a long shot to lead the league in rushing yards at +8000.
2019-20 Miami Dolphins Predictions and NFL Picks
It's hard to like much here. The roster wasn't great last year and hasn't gotten better. And the coaching change is a significant change in philosophy - from an offensive to a defensive coach, among many other things. I think they have a decent chance to go over their win total, but .500 just isn't happening.
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