Week 6 Free NFL Teaser Picks from New Handicapper Doug Upstone
We got back to normal last week on NFL teasers, hitting three of four and knocking down winners on three and two-team teasers. That takes my season record to 16-4, and I (and hopefully you) have made a significant amount of cash in winning four of the first five weeks of 2019.
For those new to this space, I'm the newest member of the sports handicapping team at Doc's Sports and it will take a while for many of you learn what I am about and my sports betting style. With that in mind for prior readers, I'm going to leave the key points of how, in my opinion, is the best way to bet teasers against the NFL odds. This is a condensed version of the most pertinent information for your usage for NFL picks.
Further below are my Week 6 NFL Picks .
Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers is not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers . Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.
The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet, when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.
Along with that, so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay - Oct. 13 - Bucs Taken From +2.5 to +8.5 over Panthers
This week's NFL Sunday gets off to an early start with a rise and shine (especially as a West Coaster, 6:30 a.m.) NFC South showdown in London. Carolina has won and covered three games since Cam Newton was injured, and he has to be feeling a little pressure to return before too long. Tampa Bay should have the same 3-2 record as the Panthers, and would, except for a botched game-winning field goal. In this contest, all but one of Carolina's games were decided by seven or fewer points. The same is true in three of the past four Buccaneers battles. By lifting the Bucs to +8.5, we blow by the key numbers of 3,6 and 7. Tampa Bay is 5-2 on the teaser line versus Carolina of late.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Buccaneers +8.5
Houston at Kansas City - Oct. 13 - Texans Taken From +4.5 to +10.5 over Chiefs
We understand things change swiftly in the NFL. Kansas City started like they were headed to the Super Bowl. Now, Patrick Mahomes' ankle is affecting his throwing motion, the offensive line is beat up, and the defense is permitting almost 400 yards a game. In comes Houston, who has similar firepower, and it seems unlikely the Chiefs stop troops are going to contain quarterback Deshawn Watson. Plus, Kansas City's past three contests have been decided by 15 total points. Toss in we pass the key football figures of 6, 7 and 10, and we should have a winner.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Texans +10.5
New Orleans at Jacksonville - Oct. 13 - Saints Taken From +1.5 to +7.5 over Jaguars
Yet another contest where the edge appears to be enlarging the spread for teasers instead of taking it down. New Orleans is 3-0 SU and ATS with Teddy Bridgewater commanding the Saints ship. Honestly, a bit surprised to see New Orleans receiving points since Jacksonville's home-field edge is only worth two points, meaning the Saints would only have a half-point edge on a neutral field, which would never happen. However, that aside, this works to our advantage in surpassing three key numbers with New Orleans, and they are 28-2 against a teaser line versus teams averaging 375 or more yards a game.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Saints +7.5
Dallas at N.Y. Jets - Oct. 13 - Cowboys Taken From -7 to -1 over Jets
Dallas has not played well the last two weeks, and some say they are overrated, losing to a pair of winning clubs as opposed to feasting on three weak ones. No matter, the New York Jets are in the "very beatable" category at 0-4. There should not be any threat of Dallas taking Gang Green lightly after dropping two straight. Sam Darnold is an upgrade at the QB position for the Jets, but he's only played one game in first-year head coach Adam Gase system, so how much he can really mean is questionable. With the teaser adjustment, there is only one way we don't win if the Cowboys do, Besides, the 'Boys are 26-2 against a teaser line in road games after one or more losses.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Cowboys -1
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