Jets vs. Bills Predictions, Picks, Betting Tips 9/13/20
Game: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Date: 1 p.m., Sunday, September 13, 2020
Location: New Era Field, Buffalo, NY
Odds/Point Spread: Buffalo -6.0
It’s a little odd that the Jets and the Bills don’t have a stronger rivalry. Think about it: what is your most memorable moment from this series? Rex Ryan, in his first season with the Bills, eliminating the Jets from the playoffs in Week 17 back in 2015? Does that even crack your top 500 moments of the last decade of NFL football?
This series is the definition of nondescript. These two teams have split the last 10 meetings. They’ve split the season series the last three years. And the road team has won four straight (and six of 10) over the course of the last five years.
The Jets-Bills series is the worst thing you can be in the entertainment business: boring.
It really doesn’t make any sense. The two teams have been division rivals for more than 50 years. They both play in the same state. They both hate the Patriots, and they both have the same “little brother complex” with regards to the Giants, New York’s favorite team. The Jets’ and Bills’ lack of rivalry is an affront to The Natural Order.
Despite a lack of interest from anyone involved, these two teams will square off to open the 2020 season. This isn’t an inconsequential game. With Tom Brady sunning himself in Tampa, the Jets, Bills and Dolphins all have a real sense of optimism in the AFC East race for the first time in years. And the winner of this clash will have an early leg up in the divisional race.
The stakes of this matchup may be even bigger than just an early lead in a four-month division race. Both teams will enter this game feeling pressure, but for different reasons. The Jets have been selling optimism and forward momentum all offseason. Adam Gase may be coaching for his job, and Sam Darnold, now in his third season, is reaching that put-up-or-shut-up point in his young career.
For the Bills, this game is crucial. Buffalo has spent the entire offseason being lauded as An Up-And-Coming Sleeper Team. The Bills have had an excellent offseason in general. And a Week 1 blowout of a division rival at home would make a statement that all the offseason hype was worth it.
The Bills are capable. Buffalo’s defense finished No. 2 in points allowed and No. 3 in total defense. And they actually got better this offseason, with Buffalo adding potential difference-makers at all three levels. Add their trade for Stefon Diggs, and a potential third-year breakout from ascending quarterback Josh Allen, and the Bills have all the making so a team on the verge of a breakthrough.
The Jets defense is no slouch. New York finished No. 7 in yards allowed last year despite getting absolutely no help from the offense. The Jets were a major statistical overachiever – winning seven games even though they were outscored by 83 total points on the season – and they won the last meeting with the Bills last December. The Bills may be trending upward. But New York isn’t scared of the Bills. And they absolutely aren’t scared of a trip to Orchard Park without fans in the stands.
New York is the underdog in this matchup, and the dog has won outright in eight of the last 10 meetings. The dog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four between these two teams.
I don’t love the Bills laying points. But I do think that this team is legit and that they are the best team in the AFC East. Early in the season I like to bet teams rather than numbers. I do like the Bills this season, and I think they are the top team in the East. I don’t like the Jets and I think that they have the look of a 5-11 or 6-10 team. This game won’t be at the top of my list to bet in Week 1, but it is a game in which I like the home team.
Who will win the Jets/Bills NFL game against the spread?
Robert Ferringo’s Pick: Take Buffalo -6.0.
NOTE: Robert made these picks and predictions in May. Things can and will change in the four months between May and September. These May predictions may or may not match his rated Week 1 picks released to his clients on Thursday, Sept. 10.
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