2015 Record: 11-2
2016 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 7.0*
2016 Season Win Total Prediction: 'Under'
The 2015 campaign was as good as it gets for the Midshipmen. Navy won 11 games and finished in the Top 25, was a major factor in the program's first-ever season in a conference, slammed Pittsburgh in a bowl game, swept the other service academies (including a 14th straight win over Army) and watched quarterback Keenan Reynolds become college football's all-time rushing leader.
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That was last year. This is this year. And this year won't be nearly as dreamy for Ken Niumatalolo's crew.
Reynolds is simply irreplaceable. Navy will turn to senior Tago Smith, who waited patiently behind Reynolds the past three years. But a kid like Keenan Reynolds only comes around once every couple decades at a place like Navy. Reynolds is one of 10 lost offensive starters - including the entire starting offensive line - and Navy's triple-option won't be nearly as effective as the group that averaged 36.8 points per game last year.
Navy's defense was solid last year and does have seven starters back. But I think they'll give up at least a touchdown more per game this season (21.8 PPG last year) due to less help from the offense.
Further, Navy had a big edge in their first trip through the AAC because these teams weren't used to preparing for or facing the option offense. Now, not only have teams like Connecticut, Houston and Memphis seen the option, but also with Tulane switching to the same rush-based attack the defenses in the AAC will be much more familiar with what Navy runs.
After opening with two straight home games, Navy has to play five of its next seven (and seven of its last 10) away from home. Most of their "easy" games are on the road this season. And a brutal three-game stretch against Memphis, at South Florida, and versus Notre Dame in Jacksonville could define their season.
I see this team taking a major step back, and I think they will have to scramble just to get to six wins and get bowl eligible. I have them at either 5-7 or 6-6, but either way this team is going 'under'.
2016 Navy Midshipmen Schedule
DATE OPPONENT TIME (ET) Location
Sat, Sep 3rd, 2016 Fordham 12:00 PM Jack Stephens Field
Sat, Sep 10th, 2016 Connecticut 03:30 PM Jack Stephens Field
Sat, Sep 17th, 2016 at Tulane 07:00 PM Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
Sat, Oct 1st, 2016 at Air Force 03:30 PM Falcon Stadium
Sat, Oct 8th, 2016 Houston 03:00 PM Jack Stephens Field
Thu, Oct 13th, 2016 at ECU 07:30 PM Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Sat, Oct 22nd, 2016 Memphis 03:30 PM Jack Stephens Field
Fri, Oct 28th, 2016 at USF 07:00 PM Raymond James Stadium
Sat, Nov 5th, 2016 Notre Dame 11:30 AM EverBank Field
Sat, Nov 12th, 2016 Tulsa 12:00 PM Jack Stephens Field
Sat, Nov 26th, 2016 at SMU 01:00 PM Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Sat, Dec 10th, 2016 Army 03:00 PM M&T Bank Stadium
All Times EST
*Season Win Total Odds from 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past five years, earning nearly $13,000 in total football profit with four of six winning seasons. Robert tallied over $20,000 in football profit between 2011 and 2015, including his amazing 2013 NFL season in which he hit 62.1 percent (95-58). Robert has produced 14 of 22 winning football months and an amazing 37 of 57 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of nine winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 750 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted two of three winning seasons and is 122-92 over the last three years (57.0 percent).
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