2015 Record: 11-2
2016 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 8.5
2016 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'
Much like it took Utah awhile to acclimate itself in the Pac-12 , TCU needed a few seasons to catch up with the speed and talent in the Big 12. But now that they have, the Horned Frogs are a perennial threat to win the league championship and are one of the favorites to do so in 2016.
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Here's the problem for the Frogs, though: you don't just replace a guy like Trevone Boykin. He was a four-year starter at quarterback and one of the best players in college football. Yes, TCU was able to successfully, and quickly, move on from Andy Dalton and Casey Pachall. But I feel like people are underselling what the loss of Boykin means to this team.
Talented Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill is a nice consolation prize. The junior comes to Fort Worth with a wealth of experience and plenty of motivation. But he is one of eight new starters for the Horned Frogs offense. TCU averaged 42.1 points per game last year (and 46.5 in 2014). I expect a noticeable drop this season. Though with improved defensive play the Horned Frogs should still be able to score more than enough to be a major factor.
Gary Patterson has always been a defense-first coach. And with eight starters back on that side of the ball I'm sure he is salivating at the prospe ct of fielding another Top 25 unit. The Frogs allowed 27.2 points per game last year after giving up just 19.0 in 2014. With a stacked back seven, led by linebacker Travin Howard, they should be closer to the latter rather than the former.
TCU's schedule is tailor-made for a title run. Their toughest three opponents, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, all come to Forth Worth. The get OU early. And if they win that game they will be in the Big 12 driver's seat. TCU also gets a bye prior to their two next most difficult contests at West Virginia and at home against Oklahoma State.
The Horned Frogs offense won't be as good as it has been. But the defense should be able to pick up the slack. Having their key games at home, where they are 13-0 the last two seasons and 51-10 the last 10 years, is a big advantage as well. I can see TCU dropping a couple of games, perhaps losing to OU and then getting upset on the road. But the thought of TCU losing four games seems far-fetched. Last year their season win total was 10.0, so this is a bargain. Play 'over'.
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Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past five years, earning nearly $13,000 in total football profit with four of six winning seasons. Robert tallied over $20,000 in football profit between 2011 and 2016, including his amazing 2013 NFL season in which he hit 62.1 percent (95-58). Robert has produced 14 of 22 winning football months and an amazing 37 of 57 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of nine winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 750 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of four winning seasons and is 122-92 over the last three years (57.0 percent).
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