Thursday Night Football Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

by Mike Allen - 10/14/2025

As we enter Week 7 already of the 2025 NFL regular season, the home divisional underdogs, particularly in primetime matchups, have been barking pretty loudly. Last Thursday, the New York Giants handled the Philadelphia Eagles. Recently, we’ve seen the Niners win outright as 9-point underdogs to the rival Rams. The Pats won in Buffalo.

Those are three straight home divisional dogs that have won outright in 2025 NFL games in primetime. Could Week 7's matchup between the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers and home Cincinnati Bengals be yet another outright upset win on Thursday Night Football?

Super QB Joe Burrow may still be on the shelf for a month, but the Cincinnati Bengals already have new life. They might not even want Burrow to take over in a few weeks. That's a joke.

Former Baltimore Raven and Cleveland Brown, Joe Flacco, is now officially a Cincinnati Bengal after his first start with the team in Sunday's loss to the Green Bay Packers. He had a pretty good showing, too. He did what he was supposed to do. He consistently and frequently got the ball to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Most of his completions were short, though, as the Packers had him played well, allowinig just 5 yards/pass attempt. We have to keep in mind, though, that the man is 40 years old and limited by his slow feet.

Also starting a senior citizen under center, as you know, are the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’ll wheel out the 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers yet again in attempts to further solidify a gigantic lead in the AFC North.

If Pittsburgh can win this Thursday night, they’ll be 3.5+ games up on everyone in the division going into Week 8 at 5-1.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5)

We opened at (-4) for the Steelers, but sharp and public money has taken us to where we are now at (-5.5). It's a clunky line still under the key number 6.

Point Total: 42.5

The point total for Thursday Night Football opened at 42.5, and even after the vast majority of both the tickets and the money have come in on it, several sportsbooks are still holding steady at 42.5.

Moneyline Odds

Steelers: -250

Bengals: +207

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Betting Analysis

Conventional wisdom and knowledge of their roster suggest that if the Pittsburgh Steelers start the season with a 4-1 record, they would likely be led by their defense. This, however, has not been the case.

They haven't been terrible on that side of the ball, but rank around the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. Where the defense has shone, though, has been keeping opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone, ranking inside the top five of the league.

They'll need it too against the #2-ranked red zone scoring offense. The Bengals cannot run the ball, though, so we'll see a lot of pass attempts from them once again.

Can anyone say T.J. Watt strip sack?

If we're looking to bet the over, I like that Cincy will be throwing the ball all the time. This lends itself to clock stoppages and potential short fields if the turnover-happy Steelers can get to Flacco.

Pittsburgh is weak against the pass, allowing more than 250 yards through the air per game this year. Okay, so one half of this matchup looks like the game will go over the point total. What about the other half?

Well, Aaron Rodgers has a gang of some of the biggest receivers/tight ends I've ever seen. Darnell Washington is 6'7" 265 at TE1, and at WR1, they have D.K. Metcalf, who's 6'4" 230.

It'll be hard for the league's 30th-ranked pass defense to slow these guys down. I'm not sure we see a full-blown shootout from the senior citizens, but with two porous pass defenses, I'll take the over 42.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Betting Pick

Pick: Over 42.5 Points

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Start:	October 16, 2025 @ 11:00 PM
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Thursday Night Football Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

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