Thursday Night Football Picks: New York Jets vs New England Patriots

by Mike Allen - 11/11/2025

The first Week 11 matchup in the NFL is this Thursday night between AFC East rivals, the New York Jets and the new-look New England Patriots. I guess the Jets have a fresh appearance this year as well, but it hasn't helped them one bit.

They thought bringing in Justin Fields to start under center would be a good idea. I can see how the Bears made a mistake on him, but they were smart enough to cut their losses. New York is a hot mess for football, and Jets’ owner Woody Johnson is doing his best to make sure this team stays abysmal.

I’m still not sure what they saw in their head coach, Aaron Glenn. They finished middle of the pack, but where would the Lions’ defense have ranked last season had they not been carried by the offense, stayed well rested on the sidelines, and hardly ever had too much asked of them?

Glenn will probably get another season to prove himself, though. He does appear to be a cool guy, and players love playing for him.

As for the Jets’ season this year, it is all over. They’ve already traded their two best defensive players, tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner.

We do our best, holding our noses and betting these disgusting dogs when we have to. Okay, admittedly, I prefer to play favorites, but we did hit on the Las Vegas Raiders last Thursday night.

I’ve seen Las Vegas go out there and compete every week, though, especially the defense. That unit will always bring it no matter what.

That’s more than can be said for the Jets, however. That said, they have won two games in a row. It’s their only two victories on the season, but dare we say New York is “En fuego”?

I know you remember the Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann days on SportsCenter.

They beat a 40-year-old Joe Flacco-led Bengals team, who, as you know, doesn’t have a defense. Then, they outscored the Dillon Gabriel-led Cleveland Browns in New York and, most importantly, away from Ohio, where the Browns are a completely different team at home than on the road.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

New York Jets (+11.5) at New England Patriots (-11.5)

Conversely, the New England Patriots are just a better franchise. In the world of NFL owners, Robert Kraft and the aforementioned Johnson are at opposite ends of the spectrum.

Almost the same can be said about Jets' head coach Glenn and Patriots' sideline superintendent, Mike Vrabel. The man has won a Super Bowl as a player in New England and Coach of the Year in Tennessee for the Titans.

I’ve always been a huge fan, and I had the Pats improving this year, but I had no idea they would be as dominant as they’ve been.

A large part of the Pats' success should be credited to their outstanding front office and Vrabel, but the team might have their next Tom Brady with Drake Maye under center, slinging it.

This kid is special. He can do everything you need him to, and may throw the deep ball better than anyone in the league.

Point Total: 43

Moneyline Odds

Jets: +530

Patriots: -800

New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Betting underdogs don’t get much uglier than the New York Jets playing the hottest team in football on the road, on a short week, after they’ve won two in a row, their only wins of the year.

Do we really want to bet a divisional favorite with a double-digit point spread, though?

We may have to because we not only have the home team in the Pats, but they’re also the better team, the far better team.

Take away Breece Hall’s longest run and longest reception, and the Jets’ rushing offense ran for less than 3 yards/carry, and Justin Fields had a grand total of ZERO net passing yards.

Granted, this was against a strong defense, but a defense that doesn’t play well on the road, nonetheless.

Not only are these two teams on two completely different trajectories in 2025, but the matchup on paper also heavily favors the home favorites. New England is weak against the pass and strong at stopping the run. The Jets are only playing to the Pats’ strengths.

I don’t see how the Jets score more than 17 points, and the backdoor cover potential for a QB like Fields is slim to none.

New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Pick

Pick: New England Patriots (-11.5)

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Start:	November 12, 2025 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
Free $60 Account Sign Up

Thursday Night Football Picks: New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Most Recent Thursday Night Football Picks