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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
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Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS1-Unit Play. Take #251 Atlanta (+6.5) over Indianapolis (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
The Falcons are flakes. They lose the games they should win. They beat (or cover) the games against teams they should lose to. You just never know what team is going to show up. That said, the Colts have been cruising along. And while I do think this is one of the better teams in the AFC I don’t think that they are some dominant group that is going to roll to 6-3. Atlanta’s defense has been tough all season. And with Bijan Robinson and Drake London, the Falcons have some guys that can cause the Colts problems. Games overseas rarely go the way you think they are going to. Throw in the reverse line movement – over 70 percent action on the Colts and the line dropped from 7.0 to 6.5 – and this one is worth a small play.
1-Unit Play. Take #253 Cleveland (-2) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
I don’t think that Aaron Glenn is much of an X’s and O’s coach. So I don’t think that the bye week will really help the Jets. They also traded away two of their best players and there is no telling where the locker room is going to be in this one. The Browns are at least bringing a proven running game, a Top 3 defense, and a good head coach into this one. I think that one will be enough to win an ugly game that I see finishing around 16-13.
1-Unit Play. Take #266 Chicago (-4.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
The Bears have a Top 5 offense and they are coming off a wild win in Cincinnati last week. This team is playing meaningful games in November and they might have some momentum after winning four of five. The Giants are going the other way. Losing Cam Skattebo took all the wind out of New York’s sails. The defense has gotten torched for three straight games and now they are facing a multidimensional Bears attack on the road. The Giants are going nowhere fast and the massive line movement in this game, from 3.0 to 4.5, is telling.
1-Unit Play. Take #269 Detroit (-8) over Washington (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
I will look for the Lions to rebound after their poor effort last week against the Vikings. That was the perfect example of a big favorite flopping off a bye week. Detroit has been very good off of a loss. They will also want revenge for their embarrassing home loss to Washington in the playoffs last year. Washington is a mess on offense and defense. This is a veteran team that entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. I’m sure a lot of their veterans wished they had gotten traded this past week. I don’t know how much fight I actually expect from them.
2-Unit Play. Take #271 L.A. Rams (-4.5) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
This is a revenge game for the Rams, who lost 26-23 in OT as 8.5-point favorites to the 49ers earlier this season. The Rams lost two fumbles and missed a field goal in that game and have been the better team of these two for months. That loss, and that wild loss to Philly, are the only things keeping the Rams from an 8-0 SU and ATS win streak. Los Angeles looked dominating out of the bye week and should be able to keep grinding. The 49ers need a bye week. They are running on fumes. They’ve played four of their last five games away from home and are coming off back-to-back long trips. They beat the Giants last week, but the Giants are a mess. San Francisco got worn out by Tampa (by 11) and the Jaguars (by 5) and the Rams are the only playoff-caliber team San Francisco has beaten in two months.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #257 Buffalo (-2.5) over Miami (1 p.m.) AND Take #269 Detroit (-1) over Washington (4 p.m.)
This Week’s Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 38.0 Cleveland at N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 39.5 New Orleans at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 45.0 Arizona at Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
NFL3-Unit Play. Take #263 New England (+3) Over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, November 9)
The Buccaneers injuries continue to hold them back this season. Facing the hot hot Patriots it’s a big problem for Tampa, to beat New England you need all the horses. Coach Vabrel has pushed all the right buttons including 6 straight wins and 5-1 ATS run. Baker keeps TB in it but just doesn’t have enough healthy weapons to win. Take New England to cover the spread this week.
4-Unit Play. Take #269 Detroit (-8) Over Washington (4:25 p.m., Sunday, November 9)
The Lions played terrible last week, that will make Coach Campbell’s job easy to get Detroit ready Sunday. The run game of Detroit will be the key, facing bad Commanders run defense. Lions to control this game from start to finish. Lions defense will also put ton of pressure on Mariotta and force few turnovers to put this game away. Take Detroit to win and cover the spread.
2-Unit Play. Take 7 Point Teaser: Jacksonville (+6) Over Houston & San Francisco (+12.5) over LA Rams (Sunday, November 9)
Both of these underdogs are live to possibly win outright, but really like them getting the extra 7 points in teaser.
6-Unit Play. Take #275 Over (45) Philadelphia Over Green Bay (8 p.m., Monday, November 10)
The Eagles offense has been stuck in neutral too man times this season. Facing a really good Green Bay team it will force Philly to open it up this week. Last 5 games this Packers offense has scored 27 or more in all but one game, look for Green Bay to get back on track this week. Take the over in Philly and Green Bay MNF game.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
4-Unit Play. #251/252 Take 'Over' 48.5 Indianapolis vs Atlanta (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)This one at Olympic Stadium in Berlin, Germany so that is why it has a very early start time Sunday. With Pennix back at QB the Falcons offense looked much better last week and he had 3 TD passes. As for the Colts, they have the top offense in the league and don't be fooled by them scoring only 20 points at Pittsburgh last week. They were done in by 6 turnovers. Indianapolis had over 300 yard through the air and Daniel Jones should bounce back from the turnover plagued game. Remember he had thrown for 9 TDs against just 1 INT in his 4 most recent games prior to that one. This one has the makings of a shootout between Jones and Pennix and remember the Colts are favored here by about a TD for a reason and Indy has averaged 36 ppg in their 7 wins this season. A 36-30 game would suit our purposes just fine here! 4* OVER 48.5 in Indy/Atl in Germany
3-Unit Play. Take #261 Baltimore (-4) at Minnesota (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Ravens Lamar Jackson had a huge game including 4 TDs in his return from injury last week. Yes, Baltimore is on the road for a 2nd straight week but they have extra rest as they played last week on Thursday at Miami. Also, they are catching the Vikings at the perfect time. Minnesota is off a big divisional win over the Lions and I expect Minny to fall flat after that big win. In fact, they have failed to cover each of the last 4 times when off a SU win! Look for the stretch to reach 5 in a row here as the Ravens are better than their record while the Vikings had allowed 65 points in B2B losses prior to the win over Detroit in which Minnesota was outgained but hung on for the win. 3* BALTIMORE -4
6-Unit Play. Take #271 LA Rams (-4.5) at San Francisco (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Great spot for the Rams here. They have been rolling and have won 3 straight games by a combined score of 86 to 20. Not only that, they have had a recent bye week while San Francisco is still waiting for their bye! Also, this is a revenge game! The Rams only have 2 losses this season and one of them was a game they never should have lost at Philly. The other one was the loss to the 49ers. That said, I love the Rams in this revenge spot. They have been playing so well in the trenches and also while the 49ers struggle to pressure the QB, the Rams have been great in that department. Also, when LA lost to SF earlier this season the defeat came in OT and the Rams did hold the yardage edge in that game. While the Rams are rolling, the Niners are still getting some "up and down" play from Mac Jones at QB and even if Brock Purdy is able to come back note that he has been bothered by turf toe and I don't expect him to be anywhere close to 100%. He has been limited in mid-week practice action. Either way the Rams are red hot and out for revenge and they get it here. Remember, other than the win over the Rams, the Niners other 5 games since late September have featured a 2-3 record but the 2 wins over struggling Falcons and Giants teams that have each lost 3 straight games. Rams in a road rout here as their tear continues. 6* LA RAMS -4.5
3-Unit Play. Take #274 LA Chargers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Steelers are now 5-3 this season but statistically they continue to not impress! Pittsburgh was outgained 368 to 225 in the home win over the Colts. I am rolling with Chargers here for this week because the Steelers had lost B2B games prior to this "phantom win" over Indianapolis. They continue to see so many of their wins come via "smoke and mirrors" so to speak. Their stats are ugly this season on both sides of the ball yet they have a solid record. They are "fools gold" this season. The Chargers, in my opinion, perhaps underestimated the 1-8 Titans and won by only 7 points but they did dominate that game statistically 343 to 208 in yardage. The fact is that this is a bargain line on the Chargers because of Pittsburgh's false record. 3* LA Chargers -2.5
5-Unit Play. Take #275 Philadelphia (+2.5) at Green Bay (8:15 p.m., Monday, Nov. 10)
I am expecting AJ Brown will be back at WR for this one for the Eagles. But even if not, note that Philly is having success even without being a key part of the offense but certainly he makes it more dangerous. While the Eagles are rested and off a bye, the Packers are off a home loss to the Panthers and their ATS skid continues. Green Bay has only covered one game in their last six games. The Packers schedule overall has been weaker than the Eagles so far too. So the point is that GB truly might not be as strong as once thought as their ATS slide continues here. At the same time, Philly is actually playing better football recently and I really like them in this spot off of their bye week. Remember Hurts threw for 3 touchdowns against the Vikings and then threw 4 more TD's in the game before the bye week even though they did not have AJ Brown for that one. 5 of the Packers last 7 games have been against teams with a combined 14-29 record. The Eagles surprise on the road here. Note they are 3-0 ATS this season in road games against team that currently are at .500 or better. They again step up in a big game on the road here.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
8-Unit Play. #271. Take LA Rams -4.5 over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)We love the Rams here to win and possibly win by a large margin. Do you remember when these Rams played these Niners last time out, it was earlier this year on primetime Football and these Niners won with Mac Jones in overtime and the Rams lost a shocker outright. You think McVay remembers that loss? Obviously he does which is why this team then went on to win 3 straight after that beating Baltimore 17-3, or the Jags 35-7 or the Saints 35-10. Heck, this is one of the rare teams that beat the Colts this year and they should have beaten the Eagles. San Fran is off a nice 10 point win against the Giants, good luck beating the Rams after beating the lowly Giants who don't have Cam, this is the same Niner team that lost by 11 to the Texans the week before or lost to the Bucs by 11. The Niners have not won back to back games since September 21st and we love the Rams to step up here with revenge and a lot of focus as we see them blowing them out possibly by two touchdowns.
4-Unit Play. #263. Take New England Patriots +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday @ 1pm est)
The Patriots will get up for this game and we love the fact they had a super shaky game against the Falcons and they did not cover, now come on the road to face a Bucs team who is good but who also come off their biggest win of the year and do not trust these Bucs, the same team that lost to the Lions by 15 and these Patriots are 7-2, know how to win the big game such as beating the Bills Outright at Buffao and we think they step up in a great way against Tampa Bay after letting Atlanta make a big come back and a 9-0 run to close the game and we think the Pats come out focused from the onset here.
3-Unit Play. #276. Take Green Bay Packers -130 Money-Line over Philadelphia Eagles (Monday @ 8:15pm) est)
We like the Packers here as they lost to these Eagles last time out, on January 12th and Septembrer 6th of last year, a hungry Packers coach that wants to taste a win against this team for the first time. These Eagles come off a nice win against the Giants by 18 but again, it's the Giants, come off a nice win against the Vikings who had terrible QB play and we like the Packers here, as they coem off a horrendous - home loss - to the Panthers looking ahead to this game and we think the Packers come out focused, only scoring 13 points in their last game (last time they had a low output was 10 points against the Browns and then put up 40 against the Cowboys). Look for a great spot here for the Packers to bounce-back, decent public fade and revenge all rolled into one.
3-Unit Play. #276. Take Green Bay Packers -130 Money-Line over Philadelphia Eagles (Monday @ 8:15pm est)
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #103 Unit Play. Take #268 Seattle -6.5 over Arizona (4:05p.m., Sunday November 9 CBS)
The Seahawks dominated the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 and with the Hawks trading for more offense this team will roll at home. Seattle has won 3-Straight and 6 out 7 and the Hawks win this game on defense. I know the Cardinals are coming off a big Monday Night Football win at Jerry’s World beating the Cowboys but let’s face it the Cowboys are no the (6-2) Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is 8-3 ATS the last 11 meetings against Arizona Cardinals.
5 Unit Play. Take #273 Over 44.5 Pittsburgh at LA Chargers (8:20p.m., Sunday November 9 NBC)
Laat month we hit our NFL Total Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers going ‘Over’ and Sunday Night we should see the same type of game. Steelers have played three road games this season and their defense have allowed an average of 26.3ppg. The Chargers have hit the ‘Over’ in 4-Straight games and 3 of those games they have won. Since the Chargers lost to the Commanders in early October the Chargers have averaged 29.2ppg. Look for both QB’s to have success Sunday night and I see both teams hitting the mid-20’s and this total gone ‘Over’. Pittsburgh last 11 road games 8 of them have gone ‘Over’ the total and the Chargers at home are 8-3 O/U last 11 home games.
Tony George
NFL
Sunday 11/9/25
#253 Cleveland (-2.5) over NY Jets *1 EST
3 Units
New play caller at OC for the Browns and expect a run heavy attack against the hapless Jets who just traded away their best 2 defensive players this week. The Jets have no attack behind QB Fields. The Browns still have the #2 defense in the NFL and with a running game that will find success, and a better defense, the Browns get their first road cover in 13 months today.
4 Units
#269 Detroit (-8) over Washington *4:20 EST
While Detroit screwed me big time last week in their worst performance of the year, they get to exact revenge against the team who beat them in the playoffs last year and without their #1 QB Daniels, who is lost for the season. Detroit is 12-0 ATS off a loss covering by an average of 12 ppg! Washington is done for the season and in free fall going 0-4 SU / ATS their last 4 with some ugly losses. The Lions have no mercy here as them getting punked in their own house in the post season last year will not be forgotten
2 Team / 6 Point Teaser (-120)
3 Units
Tease #268 Seattle down to (-0.5) and Tease #263 New England up to (+8.5)
Vernon Croy
5-Unit Play: #109-110 Las Vegas/Denver GAME TOTAL UNDER 43-110 (Thursday, November 6, 2025, 8:15pm ET)Take Las Vegas/Denver GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a low scoring game here given the way these two teams match up against each other. Denver's opponents have converted just 28.2% of their third downs against them this season which ranks first defensively in the NFL. Opponents have also averaged just 18.4 points per game against Denver overall this season and this is a Denver team that has converted just 38.1% of their third downs this season. I definitely look for Las Vegas to step up defensively as well as they are coming off back-to-back losses allowing 31 points against Kansas City and 30 points against Jacksonville which is embarrassing for any defense. Las Vegas did hold Tennessee to just 10 points in their third last game. Meanwhile Denver just held Houston on the road to 15 points. I think Las Vegas will have a hard time putting up more than 14 points in this game but I also expect Denver to struggle as well offensively. Denver did put up just 18 points last week and they also put up just 13 points against the New York Jets in their fourth last game. Play the UNDER and make sure you get on my 7-Unit CBB Play that goes tonight as we make it 4 straight wins to start the season.
7-Unit Play: #261 Baltimore -4-110 over Minnesota (Sunday, November 9, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Baltimore ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this is a Baltimore team that is starting to roll because they are finally healthy. Baltimore just put up 28 points at Miami holding them to just six points and I do expect their defense to step up on the road in Minnesota. Minnesota only has one victory against a quality opponent and that happened last week at Detroit and I also feel like this is a tough spot for them coming off that victory. Baltimore has converted 40.2% of their third downs this season however Lamar has been out for several weeks and they still have that number which will climb significantly with Lamar Under center. This is a Baltimore team looking to make up lost ground with all their injuries and dropping for straight games. Since they got healthy, they have won two straight games and I expect a blow-out victory for them in Minnesota. Minnesota has converted just 33.3% of their third downs overall this season and opponents have averaged over 23 points per game against them this season. Play Baltimore ATS
4-Unit Play: #255 New Orleans +5.5-110 over Carolina (Sunday, November 9, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take New Orleans ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this is a hungry New Orleans team looking to avoid five straight losses. Yes, New Orleans has looked really bad this season overall but they always come ready to play against Carolina. This line actually opened to favor Carolina by just 3.5 points and has since been bought up to 5.5. I also feel like this is a really tough spot for Carolina especially coming off that victory against Green Bay. Carolina has averaged just 18.9 points per game overall this season. Carolina's opponents have also converted 43.5% of their third downs against them overall this season meanwhile the Saints opponents have converted just 38.5% of their third downs against them this season. I expect New Orleans to keep this game extremely close with the chance of pulling off the upset. Play New Orleans ATS
5-Unit Play: #267 Arizona +6.5-110 over Seattle (Sunday, November 9, 2025, 4:05pm ET)
Take Arizona ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect to see an extremely close game here given the way these two teams match up against each other. These two teams met earlier this season at Arizona and Seattle came away with a three-point victory. Obviously, Murray is out and Brissett is under center who I have been extremely impressed with and he has six touchdown passes and just one interception over his last three starts. Brissett is doing very good stuff with the football and not turning it over. Arizona is coming off a nice 10-point win at Dallas and before that a three-point loss against a very good Green Bay team along with a 4-point loss on the road against Indianapolis so they have been in all those games. In fact, Arizona has not lost by more than four points this season. Arizona has also converted 45.9% of their third downs overall this season while Seattle has converted just 37% of their third downs. Play Arizona ATS
4-Unit Play: #273 Pittsburgh +3-110 over Los Angeles (Sunday, November 9, 2025, 8:20pm ET)
Take Pittsburgh ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have Pittsburgh winning this game outright. Pittsburgh is coming off an impressive victory against Indianapolis as they avoided three straight losses. Meanwhile Los Angeles is coming off a 7-point victory against a bad Tennessee team. Herbert has four interceptions in his last three games and I do expect Pittsburgh to step up defensively on the road like they did against Indianapolis holding them to just 20 points. Meanwhile this is a Chargers team that lost to that same Indianapolis team by 14 points giving up 38 points to them. Play Pittsburgh ATS
6-Unit Play: #276 Green Bay -2.5-110 over Philadelphia (Monday, November 10, 2025, 8:15pm ET)
Take Green Bay ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Green Bay in this bounce back spot especially against an injured Philadelphia team. Green Bay has converted 49% of their third downs overall the season while Philadelphia has converted just 33.3% of their third downs this season. Philadelphia has depended on the big plays to get it done offensively this season and if it wasn't for that they have really struggled offensively. Opponents have converted 42.6% of their third downs against Philadelphia this season meanwhile opponents have converted just 34.6% of their third downs against Green Bay. Play Green Bay ATS in what I believe could be a blowout victory for them.
Scott Spreitzer
4-Unit Play: Take 109 Raiders +9 over Broncos (8:15 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 6)The Raiders are a handful of plays from a 4-4 record but they’re 2-6. Brock Bowers is back, he’s Geno Smith’s favorite guy in the passing game when in trouble especially, which helped Geno a lot last week. Smith completed 29 of 39 passes for 284 yards, 4 TD and only 1 INT. And with Bowers to keep a defender or two bust, Denver’s pass rush might not be so fierce or successful this week. Raiders are decent against the run and not too bad against the pass when healthy. As far as the Denver offense, remove a win against the hapless Dallas defense and the Broncos other four wins since week-5 came by a grand total of 10 points. I do believe the Raiders will put up a fight and hang the number. I’m taking the points with Las Vegas. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
6-Unit Play: Take 261 Ravens -4 over Vikings (1 p.m., Sunday, November 9)
We won with Baltimore last week and we’re backing them again. Lamar Jackson returned to the field and it was no coincidence they started looking more like the Ravens we expected to see before the season began. Minnesota shocked many with their outright underdog win over Detroit. JJ McCarthy got a lot of pats on the back but he wasn’t that good. McCarthy had a 38 passer rating over the final three quarters. He’s now played 12 quarters of football and just two were solid. The Vikings are bottom-third in every offensive metric I care about – while the defense leaves a lot to be desired on the ground. That’s an important note because the Ravens rushed for 150 yards last week and 177 yards two weeks ago, or 327 yards on nearly 5 yards per carry. Note that Baltimore is 11-2 ATS after rushing for at least 150 yards in their previous two games, winning by 13 ppg. And the Ravens are on a 16-3 SU run, winning by 12 ppg against defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or higher. Minnesota’s defense fits the bill. I’m laying the points with the Ravens. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 274 Chargers -3 over Steelers (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Joe Alt is out again after getting injured last week and we saw the number come down last Sunday. I still don’t like the Pittsburgh offense outside of Aaron Rodgers. Once again, the Steelers were out-played last week but won. Pittsburgh was out-gained by 143 yards. They gained just 3.9 yards per play to 5.7 for Indianapolis but the Colts committed six big fat turnovers. The Chargers blew out Tennessee despite not covering. Tennessee got two non-offensive TDs while the offense only mustered a pair of FGs. The Chargers out-gained Tennessee by nearly 140 yards. Los Angeles has played without Joe Alt more than once already this season and that’s an advantage to the disadvantage of not having him available. I do believe they’ll make quality adjustments. Finally, I understand why bettors want to back Pittsburgh at home with Mike Tomlin’s home dog history. But on the road in L.A., I’ll lay it with the Chargers. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
8-Unit Play - (267) Arizona Cardinals +7 -110 over Seattle Seahawks (11/9 | 4:05PM EST) The Seahawks are being dubbed as the best team in the league right now. It's hard to argue based on their performance as of late. They rank 1st in a bunch of important categories. Having said that; the Cardinals are not getting a fair shake based on their 3-5 SU record, but they have covered three-straight and this is a big game for them as they progress in the second half ot he season. There is a reason this is priced below a touchdown despite all the public money pouring in on Seattle.Strike Point Sports
4-Unit Play. Take #264 Tampa Bay (-2.5) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)I have been one of the biggest New England backers you can find. I believe they have found my football card for the past four or five weekends, but this weekend they are on it for the wrong reason. This is a bad spot for the Patriots. New England is about to step up in weight class and I am not so sure they are ready. The Pats have won six games in a row, but the competition is less than to be desired. Yes, they beat the Bills, but that is a Division game. Now they have to travel to muggy Florida and play a Bucs team that sits at the top of their Division and is coming home off of two straight road games. New England just won’t be able to step their game up here. Give me the Bucs at home.
3-Unit Play. Take #267 Arizona (+6.5) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Seattle is one of the hottest teams in football, and on paper this line makes sense. The Seahawks have won six of seven games straight up and they are 6-2 ATS on the season. Arizona however is 3-0 this season, 8-1 ATS since last season, and 24-12 ATS as an away underdog since 2020. Jacoby Brissett under center is the right recipe for the Cards as Kyler Murray is not the answer. Arizona seems to play better with Brissett, and they will give the Seahawks a scare here. Both of these teams come into this game with confidence, but it will be Arizona that covers this line. Take the points.
6-Unit Play. Take #269 Detroit (-8) over Washington (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
The Lions off an embarrassing loss, yes please. Detroit was predicted to roll over Minnesota coming out of their bye, and they laid the proverbial egg. Dan Campbell and company will not let that happen again. Now they are facing a Commanders team that is going back to Marcus Mariotta due to another Jayden Daniels injury. Since 2020 the Lions are 61-35 ATS, and if you get them off a loss, they are 26-14 ATS. The Lions aren’t happy with last weekend and they will show it this weekend. Detroit bounced back twice so far this season off a loss, a 52-21 win over the Bears and a 24-9 win over the Bucs. Lay the points.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Sunday November 9th 2025-7 Unit Play Take #264 Tampa Bay -2.5 over New England (1:00pm est):
Last week NFL teams who already had a bye this season went 8-2 overall against the spread if they were facing a team that hadn't had a bye week so far this season. We have another example of that stat here in this one with a Tampa Bay team who comes in off a much needed week off last week. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield stated that he feels a lot better this week after having a week off to rest as there were obvious signs that he wasn't 100% leading up to the bye week as he didn't have a single carry in each of their last two contests. The Bucs last five games before their bye week was a very tough stretch of games as they went up against Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco, Detroit and New Orleans. Tampa Bay overall sits at 6-2 overall on the season currently and this is despite the fact they've only been favored in 3 of their 8 games this year.
On the other side of things New England has won six straight games but overall they've played one of the easiest schedules ever at this point of an NFL season. In fact the creator of DVOA (Aaron Schatz) said this week that his Patriots strength of schedule number is the worst one that he's ever recorded and he has data going all the way back to 1978. Add in the fact New England play's it 10th straight game here without a week off and they're also off back to back home games which also tends to inflate NFL teams power rating while the Buccaneers have played two straight games on the road. Another key factor in this one is Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles has a great reputation of success when going up against a young quarterback for the first time in his career which we have here in this one.
Take Tampa Bay minus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #251 Atlanta +6.5 over Indianapolis (9:30am est):
Indianapolis didn't look like the same offense outdoors last week on a grass field at Pittsburgh and now they have play in another tough outdoor environment here in Berlin. The Colts have had a fantastic season thus far but it does feel like they have reached a high point for them in the betting markets. Keep in mind this is also another situation of a team that's not had a bye all season and now has to travel to Europe for what should feel like a long grueling week against what should be a much fresher opponent. Atlanta is the exact kind of underdog that I like to back which is one that can score points behind a solid offense. The Falcons have been very good as dogs this year of more than a field goal cashing in all three times in this spot. This feels like way too many points and is pricing Indianapolis like they are a top 3 team.
Take Atlanta plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #260 Houston +1.5 over Jacksonville (1:00pm est):
This feels like a desperate spot here for Houston at home. The Texans are two full games behind Jacksonville in the standings and overall sit at 3-5 overall despite a very impressive +47 point margin on the year. Houston caught some bad breaks last week and I felt they probably would have won over Denver but they lost their starting quarterback CJ Stroud early in that contest and he's out here in this one. Backup QB Davis Mills was put in a very difficult spot coming in the middle of the game against arguably the best defense in football. I think Mills should be a lot better this week in what is a much easier situation for him and this Texans offense. Keep in mind that Mills has also been with Houston his entire five year career and he knows their system well.
Take Houston in this game.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
6 Unit Play - Take #266 Chicago Bears (-4.5) Over NY Giants. (1:00p.m, Sunday, November 9th)So we have a perfect setup here on this line. People are still uncertain about this Bears team due to Caleb Williams's inconsistency at the QB position. We love uncertainty in this situation because this causes stupidity and public speculation. So, the Bears have now won 4 of their last 5 games, and last week they nearly blew it again in one of the most talked about games of the week against the Bengals, which landed in a 47-42 final. Chicago, in fact, won that game with barely any time left on the clock in the 4th quarter. The public likes to be sold on hope and dreams. Jaxson Dart is where we are headed next. We are by no means taking anything away from Dart’s talent as this kid really does have the talent to be a starting long-term QB in the NFL for many years. He is still a rookie with tons to prove. New York has now lost 3 straight games against Denver (completely blew it), Philadelphia (Super Bowl champs last year), and San Francisco, who is on and off this season. Okay, so now the good stuff. We have a line sitting here at -4.5. Let’s look at the market wipe out. Teasers are going to love the tease with New York from +4.5 to +10.5. That gives them an additional hook over 10. If you tease Chicago from -4.5 to +2.5, you're still risking a game-losing field goal. So what makes the most sense: Chicago to +2.5 or New York to +10.5? New York, of course. Now (ATS), 4.5 is a scary number for bettors. It’s 1.5 points over a field goal, so adjusting to that number causes scarcity. Taking the Giants at +4.5 is a much more comfortable situation for a public bettor. All the reasons above are exactly why we believe the market has released the line at where it is placed and why we believe the market is going to wipe out the comfortable play. That goes for teasers, ATS, and moneyline bettors. Let’s Bear down with Chicago as our 6-unit NFL play of the week!
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #271 LA Rams (-4.5) Over SF 49ers. (4:25p.m, Sunday, November 9th)
LA comes into this game after torching the Saints on primetime football Sunday night in a 34-10 final. The Rams are one of the most complete teams in football right now. Stafford is as good as they get in the pocket. McVay is arguably the best coach in football and Puca is absolutely lethal at the WR position. San Francisco just lit up the Giants on the road Sunday in a 34-24 final, which we love because it draws scarcity to the public bettor. The Rams are 1st in the pass, 8th in points and 7th when it comes to total yards of offense per game in the NFL. San Francisco has a good D-line, but we are not sold on their secondary. We believe this to be a tough matchup for San Francisco. Despite the importance of this game, the lookahead for the 49ers is much more hopeful. We believe the Rams continue the momentum and drill the 49ers outright and ATS here.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
5 Unit – Take #264 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (-145) over New England (1:00p.m, Sunday, November 9th)On Sunday, we kick things off with the New England Patriots (7-2) heading to Tampa to face the Buccaneers, who come into this matchup fresh off a much-needed bye week. Before the break, Tampa Bay dominated the Saints on the road, winning 23-3, and the extra week of rest couldn’t have come at a better time for this banged-up squad. Now, while the public will be all over New England and their impressive record, this feels like a classic regression spot for the Patriots. The hype and plus money will draw bettors toward them, but this is exactly the kind of game where Baker Mayfield thrives, especially at home against one of the league’s teams. Tampa Bay is in a perfect setup here: a rested team at home, looking to make a statement and remind everyone they’re still a legitimate contender in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been perfect on the road at 4-0, backed by a top-10 offense and defense, but that streak feels due to end. Mike Vrabel has clearly changed the culture in New England, but facing a well-prepared Tampa defense coming off a bye is a tough ask for rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Even without Mike Evans, I expect this Buccaneers offense to find rhythm early, and the defense to bring heavy pressure up front. This is a great situational spot for Tampa Bay to hand New England their third loss of the season.
Take #264 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (-145) over New England
Nick Menken
3 Unit – Take #267 ARI Cardinals (+6.5) over SEA Seahawks (-110) (4:05p.m, Sunday, November 9th)
We’ve got a divisional matchup brewing in Seattle as the Arizona Cardinals head north to take on the Seahawks. The Cardinals are coming off an impressive 27-17 road win over the Cowboys, where their defense which had been shaky early in the season stepped up big and held one of the league’s top offenses to just 17 points. There’s no doubt this Arizona defense is trending in the right direction, and they’ll get another big test here in Seattle. The Seahawks have quietly put together a strong 6-2 record, but they’ve been far from dominant at home, sitting at 2-2 on their own turf. These two teams met earlier in the season, and the Cardinals nearly pulled off a comeback with Kyler Murray under center. This time around, it’s Jacoby Brissett leading the charge and he’s done a tremendous job commanding this offense. Since taking over, Brissett has given this team new life and confidence, leading them to a huge win in Dallas and proving he can handle the pressure of big road environments. The public will naturally lean toward Seattle at home, but this Arizona offense looks rejuvenated, and their defense has found rhythm. This is a divisional matchup where points are always at a premium, and anything can happen. Expect the Cardinals to hang tough from start to finish.
Take #267 ARI Cardinals (+6.5) over SEA Seahawks (-110)
Nick Menken
2 Unit – Take #274 LA Chargers ML (-145) over PIT Steelers (8:20p.m, Sunday, November 9th)
We’ve got Sunday Night Football back in Los Angeles as the Pittsburgh Steelers roll into town to take on the Chargers. The Steelers are coming off a huge statement win last week against the Colts a victory that’s boosted the confidence in that locker room and reminded everyone this team can hang with anyone. But now they’ll face a tough test traveling cross-country to the West Coast for a prime-time matchup under the lights. The Chargers, meanwhile, have yet to truly hit their stride this season but managed to escape Tennessee last week with a 27-20 win. While they’ve struggled at times to pull away from opponents, this team still has the pieces to dominate when they put it all together. Defensively, the Chargers have been solid, allowing just 300 yards per game, and their offense continues to move the ball efficiently, ranking near the top of the league in total yardage. Playing at home in prime time is where this Chargers team tends to shine. With Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers riding high off last week’s emotional win, this has all the makings of a potential letdown spot. The travel, the lights, and the pace of the Chargers’ offense could all be factors here.
Take #274 LA Chargers ML (-145) over PIT Steelers
Nick Menken
2 Unit – Take #261 BAL Ravens ML (-210) over MIN Vikings (1:00p.m, Sunday, November 9th)
No Breakdown here. Love the Ravens this week on the Moneyline. High juice but love them if you parley any games this Sunday together.
Take #261 BAL Ravens ML (-210) over MIN Vikings
Nick Menken
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