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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
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Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS6-Unit Play. Take #456 Cleveland (-2.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
I know, I know: I can’t believe we’re going heavy on the Browns either. However, I think that this team still has some fight in it. I don’t think the same about Miami. I think the Dolphins are done. I think if they lose this game Mike McDaniel will be fired on Monday. I think Tua lost the locker room after last week’s mess. And I think that Miami’s defense is absolutely pathetic. Cleveland is coming off the worst three-game situational stretch of the season. They had to play at Detroit, then fly to London to face a Minnesota team that had already been in the U.K. for a week, then play a third straight road game – with no bye after the England trip – at Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that was off a bye. I mean, what the hell? Cleveland has maybe the best defense in the league (when you consider that they get no help from the offense). They should also be able to run the ball down Miami’s throat. The Browns don’t win much. So when they get a lead in this game I think they are going to get excited and guys are going to start making plays. This should be the final nail in Miami’s coffin.
3-Unit Play. Take #459 New Orleans (+5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
I don’t think that the Bears are going to handle success well. ‘Win on Monday, lose on Sunday.’ Chicago is off its second straight win on the last play of the game – with both wins coming by exactly one point. If the Bears were 1-4 instead of 3-2 then this number would be completely different. New Orleans has won eight straight against Chicago and are 11-4 in their last 15 against the Bears. New Orleans is 4-1 SU and ATS in Chicago. The Saints have been battling. They have played hard against a tough schedule and they aren’t going to roll over here. The public is piling onto the Bears bandwagon. I’m going the other way. Chicago isn’t there yet and they still make too many dumb mistakes.
1-Unit Play. Take #462 Minnesota (+2) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
Minnesota is off a bye week. That is crucial because they were a MASH unit prior to the time off. The Vikings should be able to stabilize their offensive line and are getting some key guys back on defense. I’m not completely off the Eagles bandwagon yet. I don’t know that they deserve to be a road favorite, though. Philadelphia has major problems in the secondary and I don’t think that they have enough good corners to slow down this Vikings passing attack. And with the Eagles offense playing as poorly as it has been I think this team is in a little trouble.
2-Unit Play. Take #464 N.Y. Jets (+1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
I know, I know: I can’t believe we’re going on the Browns AND the Jets in the same week! I am not buying into Carolina at all. They have back-to-back wins against two of the worst defenses in football. The Jets have played a brutal schedule (Pitt, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Denver) and they had a chance to win three of those games. Carolina is 1-10 SU and ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite and I don’t buy them as a road favorite at all. The Jets are a train wreck and Aaron Glenn is in way, way over his head. I think the scrubby Jets steal one here and slap the public in the face in the process.
1-Unit Play. Take #465 Indianapolis (+1.5) over L.A. Chargers (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
2-Unit Play. Take #468 Denver (-7) over N.Y. Giants (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
Denver was close to turning last week’s game against the Jets into a blowout. They didn’t. But I think that they will rebound and be much better at home. Denver is 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games. They also have a dominating defense that I think will stand up to New York’s newfound rushing attack. I’m not buying into Jaxson Dart or the Giants. These guys lost big at New Orleans and the Broncos are a much better team than the Saints. This is not a place the Giants are used to playing and I think they are going to struggle with altitude. New York is in a letdown spot and I think they get slammed here.
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #462 Minnesota (+9) over Philadelphia (1 p.m.) AND Take #464 N.Y. Jets (+8.5) over Carolina (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #456 Cleveland (+4.5) over Miami (1 p.m.) AND Take #459 New Orleans (+12) over Chicago (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #468 Denver (Pk) over N.Y. Giants (4 p.m.) AND Take ‘Over’ 36.5 Philadelphia at Minnesota (1 p.m.)
This Week’s Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 42.5 New England at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 43.5 Philadelphia at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 55.0 Washington at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.5 Green Bay at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Atlanta at San Francisco (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
MONDAY NFL SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #476 Detroit (-5.5) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Monday, Oct. 20)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 52.5 Tampa Bay at Detroit (7 p.m., Monday, Oct. 20)
Tampa Bay has been awesome to this point in the year. Baker Mayfield has been the MVP of the league. The Bucs have been great on the road (16-5 ATS) and unreal as an underdog (14-6 ATS). The Bucs also beat the Lions outright last year in Detroit. Despite all that, I’m going on the home team. Eventually those injuries are going to catch up with the Bucs. And when they do I think it is going to be an avalanche. The Lions have been on a four-year ATS heater. They are coming off a loss and the last time that happened they buried their opponent 52-21. They won’t do that here. But I do think that this one could be a blowout. The Lions go apeshit on people in their home arena. And the crowd is going to be frothy with the team off a loss, playing in primetime, and playing with legit revenge. Detroit outgained the Bucs by 250 yards in that loss last year and they beat Tampa Bay 20-6 and 31-23 in the season prior. I see a double-digit win for the home team here.
1-Unit Play. Take #478 Seattle (-3) over Houston (10 p.m., Monday, Oct. 20)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
NFL3-Unit Play. Take #463 Carolina (-120) Over NY Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, October 19)
The run game for Panthers has been really good the last few weeks and don’t think that changes against struggling Jets. Panthers defense has also been much better this season and facing struggling Jets offense it continues this week. Take Carolina on the moneyline as slight favorite.
7-Unit Play. Take #463 Washington (-1.5) Over Dallas (4:25 p.m., Sunday, October 19)
The struggling defense of Dallas continues to hurt this team. Cowboys playing great on offense but hard to cover up for such a bad defense. Washington gave the MNF game away last out that motivates this team to go into Dallas and right the ship. Take Washington to win and cover the spread here.
2-Unit Play. Take 7 Point Teaser: Miami (+10) over Cleveland & NY Giants (+14.5) over Denver (Sunday, October 19)
Both of these underdogs have shot to win these games but like them way more as 7 point teaser.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
3-Unit Play. Take #312 Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (8:15 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 16)The Steelers are 4-1 this season including 2-0 on the road but a look at those road games clues you in as to what is going with Pittsburgh so far this season. The Steelers won at New England but were outgained 369 to 203. In the win at New York over the Jets, Pittsburgh was outgained 394 to 271. By the way the Jets are now 0-6 this season. I know the Bengals have issues of their own for sure but they got a boost with Joe Flacco at QB last week. They still lost but that was a better effort at least and they got the cover at Green Bay. At home this season they have a win over Jacksonville and their loss was to a strong Detroit team. This looks like a very tricky game for the over-rated Steelers (just look at Pittsburgh stats) and the ugly home dog is the play here as the Bengals build off a better effort last week and they are happy to also be at home again after 3 of last 4 games were on the road. 3* CINCINNATI +5.5
3-Unit Play. Take #451 LA Rams (-3) vs Jacksonville (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
This game in London so it is an EARLY start Sunday. Both teams are 4-2 but the Jaguars lost at Cincinnati to the Bengals in the game the Burrow got knocked out of early. In other words, Jaguars should have found a way there but did not. Then they were down 20-6 to the Seahawks last week before a 4th quarter touchdown. This Rams team is the more complete team on both sides of the ball and they are strong in the trenches and their D-line is a strength while the D-line of the Jaguars is a weakness. The only two losses the Rams have were in OT to the 49ers and also that crazy loss in Philly where it looked like they had the SB Champion Eagles beat. The point is that LA could easily be 6-0 this season and this is a solid value spot laying just 3 points in a neutral site game. 3* LA Rams -3
3-Unit Play. Take #471/472 'Over' 44.5 Green Bay at Arizona (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
The Cardinals moved the ball well last week against Indianapolis and Jacoby Brissett threw for over 300 yards. Packers are favored by nearly 7 on the road for a reason here but I expect the Cardinals to score well too. Perhaps a 31-24 type of game here. Packers had that crazy 40-40 OT battle with Dallas in their most recent road game. Also, last week GB allowed over 200 yards passing to Flacco and the Bengals. Jordan Love has averaged nearly 300 yards passing for the Packers last 2 games and the Cardinals pass defense is certainly not a strength. The Packers have scored at least 27 in 4 of 5 games. The Cardinals have scored, other than one low-scoring loss at SF have scored 24 ppg on average in their other 4 games (including all 3 of their home games). 3* OVER 44.5 in Arizona
6-Unit Play. Take #476 Detroit (-5.5) vs Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m., Monday, Oct. 20)
Tampa Bay is 5-1 this season but dealing with a ton of injuries at the RB and WR positions. I think this week it finally catches up with the Bucs as they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Detroit is coming off a loss at Kansas City and now playing just their 3rd home game of the season. The Lions are a perfect 2-0 at home this season and won the 2 games by an average score of 43 to 16. They are fully capable of piling up points here at home and I feel Baker Mayfield may finally have too many injuries around him to be able to keep his Buccaneers in this one. Look for the Lions to pull away in a home blowout as this game goes along. While the Lions are quite solid statistically across all categories, the Bucs rushing offense and pass defense have been areas of concern. Detroit also has been solid under the Monday night lights with 4 straight covers on MNF. This one makes it 5 in a row as I look for a huge game from Goff as the Lions bounce back off the loss. 6* DETROIT -5.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
6-Unit Play. #476. Take Detroit Lions -5.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday @ 7pm est)The Lions lost to this team last year if you remember and they remember that loss, come off a rare loss here against a Chiefs team who they saw their players punch and get suspended near the end in frustration, with the Bucs riding high and 5-1 beating the Niners, they come back down to earth against a pissed off Lions team at home and win big here.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #74 Unit Play. Take #460 Chicago -5 over New Orleans (1:00p.m., Sunday October 9 CBS)
The Saints have played two road games this season already and lost both by double-digits and this trend will continue Sunday. The Saints defense has given up an average of 37.5ppg on the road and we all know the Bears defense will be ready since the Bears DC is former Saints Head Coach Dennis Allen. With the Saints losing 10-Straight games as an underdog and the Bears going 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games I see home field holding. Let’s also throw in that the Bears are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.
6 Unit Play. Take #478 Seattle -3 over Houston (10:00p.m., Monday October 20 ESPN)
The last time we saw Seattle at home they lost to Tampa 38-35 and what a game that was to watch. The Hawks were behind from the start and they outscored the Bucks 28-25 in the second half but fell-short. Last week the Hawks went on the road and beat the Jaguars 20-12 and the Hawks won that road game all on defense. Both the Texans and Hawks have great D’s but I see Darnold having another steeler game and look for the Hawks to be able to run the ball better at home. I know the Houston Texans have won back-to-back games but look at those wins. The Baltimore Ravens on the road 44-10 (who hasn’t beaten Baltimore) and the Tennessee Titans at home 26-0 (one of the worst teams in the league). The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 ATS and the Hawks are 6-1 SU against SFC opponents. Let’s also throw in that the Houston Texans are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Monday Night Football games and have dropped 6 out 8 MNF games.
Tony George
NFL
Sunday 10/19/25
6 Units
#459 / #460 New Orleans / Chicago (UNDER 46.5) *1 EST
Rough weather is on deck (winds 25 mph – 80% chance of rain – 60 degrees) and the also the Saints offense does not score well at all. Only over 20 points twice all year and there was a defensive touchdown on a long fumble TD return in one of those. Chicago getting healthier on defense and I am still not sold on them or Williams on offense. I expect a lower scoring game here. Bears on offense rankled #31 in the NFL in zone coverage and the Saints play 85% zone on defense. Rain and wind also affect Field Goals. I expect both teams to run it a lot. Play the Under.
3 Units
#457 New England (-7) over Tennessee *1 EST
Yes, I know all about teams with a new coach the week after they fire one and their record, but Tennessee iss just a bad football team with no options here, and trust me when I tell you this, Mike Vrable was fired by them and he will in fact kick a dog when it is down here. If he can drop the hammer, he will, and I think he does. Tennessee cannot establish anything on offense and WR Ridley is out, and the Patriots are a good team, and Maye is a good QB. Tenn. dead last in offense in the NFL, scoring 13 points and they allow 26. That is a -13 point differential YTD which is unreal by NFL standards. Expect New England to blow them out.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120)
3 Units
Tease #457 New England DOWN to (-1) and Tease #467 NY Giants to (+13)
Monday Night Football
10/20/25
3 Units
#475 Tampa Bay (+5.5) over Detroit *7 EST
Looks too easy but I have been singing the praises of Tampa and Baker Mayfield all year. This is a good team. I know Bucky Irving is out but RB White is solid. Detroit will counter punch on offense but they are beat up in the secondary and Tampa has a way of hanging around and Mayfield is deadly with the game on the line for opposing teams. The Bucs came in here last year and had 5 turnovers and still won outright. Not sold on Lions defense at all and that keeps teams within striking distance against them. The number 5.5 in any primetime game is a bad number to lay even with a home team. A good run defense travels well, and the Bucs have one. Word is Mike Evans will play Monday as well. Baker did fine without WR Egbuka last week (he is listed as questionable and I capped this without him playing). Tampa will lean on defense more than offense here (take a page out KC’s gameplan last week) and keep it close.
Vernon Croy
6-Unit Play: #311 Pittsburgh -5.5-110 over Cincinnati (Thursday, October 16, 2025, 8:15pm ET)Take Pittsburgh ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Pittsburgh in the spot a lot as they are hands down the superior team and they will put up a big number against the Cincinnati defense. Pittsburgh is coming off three street victories against New England Minnesota and Cleveland meanwhile Cincinnati has not won since September 14th and they are coming off a bad loss against Green Bay although they did cover the spread in that game. Cincinnati still comes into this game hobbled and they have eight interceptions and nine touchdown passes this season which basically sums everything up. Play Pittsburgh ATS
4-Unit Play: #455–456 Miami/Cleveland GAME TOTAL UNDER 37-110 (Sunday, October 19, 2025 1:00pm ET)
Take Miami/ Cleveland GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top NFL pick for Sunday. I expect a very low scoring game here given the way these two teams match up against each other. I do expect Miami to step up defensively and Cleveland definitely will. Miami has struggled offensively the season and so has Cleveland and I would not be surprised to see this game go under 30 points for the game. Play the UNDER
7-Unit Play: #468 Denver -7-110 over New York (Sunday, October 19, 2025 4:05pm ET)
Take Denver ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Denver is hands down the superior team here Sunday especially at home. I do expect Denver to step up defensively at home here Sunday and I feel like this is a very tough spot for the Giants coming off their victory against Philadelphia. Denver has won three straight games including an impressive victory against Philadelphia at Philadelphia which I gave you Denver in that game. This is a Denver team that could play deep into the playoffs and they are a young team but still they have the veteran presents which makes them great. I do expect Denver to put up a big number against New York at home here Sunday. Play Denver ATS
4-Unit Play: #425 Green Bay -6.5-110 over Arizona (Sunday, October 19, 2025 4:25pm ET)
Take Green Bay ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. Green Bay is hands down the superior team here and I expect them to take care of business on the road at Arizona. Green Bay is coming off a 27-18 victory against Cincinnati failing to cover the spread in that game in fact they have failed to cover the spread in three straight games which makes this game even more enticing for me. Especially against the Arizona team that has really struggled this season. The last time these two teams met last season Green Bay won that game 34-13 and I expect a similar result this Sunday. I do expect Green Bay to step up defensively in this game like they have shown they can at times this season. Green Bay has held upon us to just 280.2 yards per game against the season including 73 rushing yards per game which ranks first defensively in the NFL. Play Green Bay ATS
6-Unit Play: #476 Detroit -5.5-110 over Tampa Bay (Monday, October 20, 2025, 7:00pm ET)
Take Detroit ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. Detroit is hands down this superior team here especially at home and I expect them to step up defensively in this game. Detroit is the superior team on both sides of the ball and this is a Tampa Bay team that has really struggled defensively this season. Tampa Bay has dependent on the big plays to get it done this season which will not happen against this Detroit defense. Detroit is the superior team on both sides of the ball and even though Tampa Bay has had a good run it stops here Monday night against a good quality team. I would not be shocked to see Detroit win this game by 14 or more points. Tampa Bay is not for real, yes they have a gunslinger under center but I will not happen against this Detroit defense especially in Detroit. Play Detroit ATS
Scott Spreitzer
2-Unit Play: Take 458 Titans +7 over Patriots (1 p.m., Sunday, October 19)I’m taking the points with Tennessee and their new interim-HC on Sunday. I understand this is Pats’ HC Mike Vrabel’s revenge game but it means much more to me that his team is playing its third straight road game. They have one of the worst ground games in the league and gained just 144 rushing yards on 2.77 yards per carry in their last two games, combined. I’m betting Tennessee’s defense keeps this close throughout. I’m taking the points with the Titans. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
6-Unit Play: Take 468 Broncos -7 over Giants (4:05 p.m., Sunday, October 19)
I’m laying the points with Denver. This marks the second time in three games that we’re playing against the Giants in a letdown situation. New York beat the Chargers in Jaxson Dart’s NFL debut on September 28 and we played against them and on New Orleans the very next week and cashed the ticket. Dart threw two INTs in a shaky performance. This week they’re off a smackdown of division rival Philadelphia. Dart played well and Cam Skattebo ran wild. But Denver’s defense is #1 in both third down conversion percentage allowed and red zone conversion percentage allowed. They’re second in yards per play allowed, and top-10 in yards per point against. This should be a tough spot for the Giants’ young QB-RB tandem. Meanwhile, there are only five NFL teams worse than the Giants in yards per play allowed. Finally, note that NFL road underdogs off a SU win by at least 14 points have covered just five of 34 games when facing a team off a SU win but ATS loss as a favorite. I’m laying the points with the Broncos. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 478 Seahawks -3 over Texans (10 p.m., Monday, October 20)
I’m backing the Seahawks for the second straight week. Houston finally found something in their two games prior to their bye week but they found it against two horrible teams, including Baltimore (banged-up) and Tennessee. Before that the Texans had three terrible offensive performances against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and the Rams. The Seahawks’ defense is top-eight in yards per play allowed, yards per point allowed, and red zone conversion percentage allowed. Houston owns decent defensive statistics but the Seattle offense should be the difference in this one. The Seahawks’ offense is tied atop the NFL in yards per play and seventh in yards per point. Houston is in the bottom half of the league in both metrics even with games against the defenses of Baltimore and Tennessee. I’m laying the points with Seattle. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play - (465) Indianapolis Colts +2.5 -115 over Los Angeles Chargers (10/19 | 4:05PM EST) The Colts are 5-1 but are still not getting the respect they deserve based on their weak strength of schedule. This is still the NFL; and strength of schedule is almost always overblown. The Chargers continue to shoot themselves in the foot in certain situations and barely escaped with the win vs. the Dolphins. They're 0-4 ATS their last four (or 0-3-1 depending on which lines you're using) and until we see otherwise; they should not be laying juice in this spot. This is going to be a fun one. Dog value.4-Unit Teaser - (464) New York Jets +7.5 over Carolina Panthers with (473) Atlanta Falcons +8.5 over San Francisco 49ers (Two-Team 6-Point Teaser @ -110) (10/19 | 1:00PM EST) This is all about capturing the most value from a pure number standpoint. The Panthers shouldn't be favored on the road vs. anyone and historic data backs up the Jets. Getting them thru the key number of 7 here is vital. If that gets to the window, we will be sitting on the Falcons at +8.5 in a primetime game where lines are extremely efficient. The low total makes the +8.5 even more valuable. Let's ride.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #457 New England (-7) over Tennessee ( 1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)The Titans will be looking for the ‘new coach bump’ but I don’t see it coming this weekend. Yes, history shows that teams do play a bit harder for that interim coach, but this Patriots team is just playing too well. New England was in the perfect let down spot last weekend after beating the Bills but they still did enough to win/cover over the Saints. Now they get the Titans with a new coach, and in a revenge spot for their current coach. New England is going to want to play well for Mike Vrabel in his return to Nashville, and I see them doing just that. Lay the points as the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Titans.
3-Unit Play. Take #467 New York Giants (+7) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
As soon as the Broncos/Jets game ended I knew I was going to be on the Giants. New York is playing with a lot of moxy right now, while Denver is being led by a QB that is in the bottom third of the NFL in QBR. Yes, the Broncos pass rush is formidable, but so is the Giants. Denver struggled to score 13 points against the Jets, and now they have to travel back from Europe and play a hungry NY team on the ‘mini bye’. New York is 14-3 ATS the week after playing Philadelphia, and now they come into this game off an actual victory over the Eagles. Jackson Dart’s legs create extra downs for the Giants and those extra snaps will help keep NY within the number.
3-Unit Play. Take #469 Washington (-1.5) over Dallas (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
This is a huge game in the NFC East. The Eagles seem to be falling apart, and have a tough game with the Vikings, so the winner here puts a lot of pressure on the top seed in the Division. Washington had the victory sealed up against the Bears and then fumbled it away late. They won’t make that mistake again. The Commanders have bounced back well this season off a loss as they are 2-0 with an average margin of victory of 17 points (41-24 over Las Vegas and 27-10 over the Chargers). Dallas has had a lot of success versus Washington over the years, especially at home, but this Cowboys defense can’t stop anyone, and now they are facing a Commanders offense that is averaging 29 points per game over their last six games off a loss.
7-Unit Play. Take #476 Detroit (-5.5) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Monday, Oct. 20)
Tampa Bay is hanging on by a string due to injuries, but they just keep finding ways to win. That won’t happen this weekend. Detroit is 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday night games and they are coming back home after back-to-back away games. Dan Campbell is 57-31-2 ATS in his career, and getting him off a loss is just something I cannot pass up. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games off a loss since 2022, including a 52-21 beat down of the Chicago Bears earlier this season. The Lions, at home, in primetime, off a loss…Yup, this is something that doesn’t come around that often, so when it does, you attack, regardless of if Baker Mayfield is across the field. The Lions only scored 17 points last weekend, and will make amends for that Monday Night. This Lions team that averages 31.8 points per game, but an even more impressive 43 points per game at home (only two games thus far). Tampa Bay has been a great story, but their good fortune catches up to them here. Lay the points on the home team.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
NFL-Sunday October 19th 2025-
4 Unit Play Take #466 Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 over Indianapolis (4:05pm est):
Los Angeles is finally starting to get healthy and win healthy they are better than Indianapolis. The Chargers haven't covered the spread since week two and head coach Jim Harbaugh is a point spread covering machine. The Chargers have wins over KC and Denver this year which is more impressive than anything Indianapolis has done this season. The Colts have faced two tough teams this year and were lucky to go 1-1 in those games.
Play Los Angeles in this one.
Monday October 20th 2025-
7 Unit Play Take #478 Seattle -3 over Houston (10:00pm est):
The NFC is way better than the AFC this season going 23-11 against the spread in head to head games. These two teams have a very similar power rating in the betting market but I disagree with that and feel that Seattle is actually the much better of these two teams. The Seahawks have thumped both AFC foes this so far this season (Jacksonville and Pittsburgh) and they did so on the road as well and those two teams are a combined 8-3 overall in 2025. Seattle is also getting pro bowl level play out of the all important quarterback position this season from Sam Darnold. I expect Seattle to bring max effort, intensity and focus to this one as it's not only a big home primetime game but it's also the game before their bye week which I feel can be a big edge for teams especially when it comes to bring energy and focus.
Houston is off a bye but I feel their bye week came at the wrong time as this team started off the season 0-3 overall but they did win their last two games before their week off. A closer look though at those two wins shows a 26-0 victory over a hapless Tennessee team but keep in mind that game was just 6-0 going into the 4th quarter. The Texans also won their last game as well but it was against a Baltimore team that was ravaged by injuries and were also without their superstar quarterback. Added all up and I think this Houston team still has lots of holes and are nowhere near the level of what we've seen out of the Seahawks.
Lay the points with Seattle.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
8 Unit Play - Take #458 Tennessee Titans (+7) Over New England Patriots. (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 19th)The Patriots are rolling right now on a strong 3-game winning streak with wins over Carolina, Buffalo, and New Orleans. 2 of these 3 wins have been on back-to-back road games, so this looks strong for the Patriots from a metric standpoint. This is the first 1:00 game on the board Sunday, and the line is +7, which causes insane amounts of public speculation. Everyone in the right mind is going to be teasing the Patriots from -7 to -1 with an expectation for them to simply win the game outright. The Titans have one win this season, and it was stolen from the Cardinals in the most ridiculous way possible. This was a huge subject line, and your typical television watching bettor definitely take note of that situation. So in reality, people are looking at this game with the Titans being 0-8 on the year, and all they need is a simple straight-up win with New England to cover one leg of their teaser. Another massive speculation attack is Mike Vrabel returning to Tennessee. The public will also feed on how he was fired, and this is a massive revenge spot for him. We don’t see revenge being a confluence when it’s a coach; that’s strictly player versus player. That gives us even more ammunition to fade the public and take the points here with Tennessee. We believe everyone is on the tease with New England, which is going to pull in a ton of money on not only New England to cover the spread but also on a tease and also a moneyline parlay chopper. We would be by no means surprised here if Tennessee picks up this win outright. We are gifted a touchdown for a trap reason, and we are going to take those 7 points for heavy-duty insurance. Let’s roll, Titans, as our 8-unit game of the year!
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #470 Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) Over Washington Commanders. (4:25p.m, Sunday, October 19th)
Dallas comes into this game 2-3-1 on the season with losses against Carolina at Carolina, who is unbeaten at home; Chicago, who now appears to be better than expected; and the Eagles to open up the season. Dallas is 1st in the NFL when it comes to offensive yards per game and 2nd when it comes to passing yards. If you watched Monday Night Football with Washington vs. Chicago, we saw Washington does not have a strong secondary. Washington is a team that is regressing and might not be as good as they have been hyped up to be. Meanwhile, Dallas is actually much better than expected, and when playing at home, this team is 10-7 in their last 2 seasons. Last season was a debacle, but the team was not healthy. We expect a very strong outing here out of Dallas, and we also expect them to pull off the unexpected, as the public is hammering Washington to win this game straight up on the moneyline. Let’s roll with the Cowboys here for our 4:00 slate selection!
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7 Unit – Take #466 LA Chargers ML (-130) over Indianapolis Colts (4:05p.m, Sunday, October 18th)On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts will travel west to face the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC matchup. The Colts come in at 5-1 after narrowly escaping with a win over the Cardinals last week, while the Chargers sit at 4-2 after edging out the Dolphins 29-27. Both offenses have plenty of firepower, but this game feels like a spot where the Chargers can reestablish themselves as one of the AFC’s tougher teams. Despite the public's enthusiasm for the Colts' recent success, Daniel Jones and his team face a significant challenge in this matchup. The Chargers’ defense has quietly been strong, allowing just 316 yards per game, good for top-10 in the league. They play fast, they hit hard, and they’ll make Jones uncomfortable in the pocket. The Colts showed a lack of urgency last week, and against a team like the Chargers, that’s dangerous. Justin Herbert, meanwhile, feels due for a breakout performance. At home, with pressure mounting to prove their potential, the game is the perfect spot for him to deliver. Expect the Chargers to play with energy on both sides of the ball, clean up the turnovers, and make a statement win in front of their home crowd. Take the Chargers to get it done over the Colts on Sunday.
Take #466 LA Chargers ML (-130) over Indianapolis Colts
Nick Menken
4 Unit – Take #461 PHI Eagles ML (-130) over MIN Vikings (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 18th)
We’ve got an NFC matchup this weekend as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. The Eagles came out hot to start the season but are now on a two-game skid, giving them plenty of motivation to get back on track. Minnesota is coming off a narrow 21-17 win over the Browns in London, and the travel back to the States could disrupt their routine. Quarterback questions remain for the Vikings, with talk that JJ may be back under center instead of Carson Wentz, which could shake things up. This feels like a prime spot for the Eagles. Public faith is slipping in this Super Bowl-winning squad, but the biggest key for Philadelphia is getting back to their run game. They currently rank 25th in the NFL on the ground, and with a talent like Saquon Barkley, pounding the ball early opens up the pass game and keeps Minnesota’s secondary off balance. The Vikings’ secondary is solid, and the Eagles can’t rely solely on throwing the ball. If Philadelphia establishes the run early, they should be able to control the tempo and wear down Minnesota’s defense. Look for the Eagles to lean on Barkley and grind out a road victory, putting them back on the path to winning ways.
Take #461 PHI Eagles ML (-130) over MIN Vikings
Nick Menken
2 Unit – Take #473 ATL Falcons (+2) over SF 49ers (-110) (8:15p.m, Sunday, October 18th)
Sunday Night Football features the Atlanta Falcons traveling to face the San Francisco 49ers. Atlanta comes in on a two-game winning streak, highlighted by a 24-14 Monday Night win over the Bills, where Bijan Robinson and Drake London were unstoppable. The 49ers are coming off a 30-19 loss to the Buccaneers, with Mac Jones limited and the defense missing key pieces like captain Fred Warner. Despite the national TV spotlight, injuries and struggles on both sides make San Francisco vulnerable. Atlanta has the momentum and weapons to control this game, making them the smart play with the points, and if they continue their strong play, an outright win is very possible.
Take #473 ATL Falcons (+2) over SF 49ers (-110)
Nick Menken
Expert NFL Picks History:
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