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Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS1-Unit Play. Take #455 Pittsburgh (-2.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
Aaron Rodgers is a loser. He is a shot fighter and hopefully this is his last season. It’s an odd fit with the Steelers but as long as he can avoid turnovers he should be able to provide baseline competence for this offense while the defense does all the work. This defense is awesome. I really just can’t see them allowing more than 13 points to Justin Fields and the run-first Jets, who just lost one of the best offensive linemen. The Steelers dominated the Jets 37-15 last year, with Rodgers. Do we think the Jets are better now? I don’t either.
1-Unit Play. Take #457 Miami (Pk) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
3-Unit Play. Take #460 Jacksonville (-3.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
The books really don’t want to move a game off the 3.0 so it is a bit telling that they did here. Carolina is going to be better. They still suck, though. Bryce Young still has a long way to go and the defense was one of the worst all-time last year. Again: they will be better defensively. But do we think the Panthers are going to go on the road and get a win? You betting on that? It’s put-up-or-shut-up time for Trevor Lawrence (who I have never bought into) and this Jaguars core. They have talent. They have some good young players. They are better on both sides of the ball. Now it is up to them to go out and prove it. Jacksonville lost 10 games last year – TEN! – by one score so they weren’t as far away as their 4-13 record appeared. I like this bet a bit more than the rating but can only trust the Jags so much.
1-Unit Play. Take #461 N.Y. Giants (+6) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
Absolutely everything about the Commanders is screaming for regression this season. They simply weren’t as good as their record last year. Case in point: they only beat the Giants by 5 and 3 points last season. And that three-point win came because New York’s kicker got hurt in warm-ups so they had to pass up a bunch of scoring options. I think the Giants are better. They still suck and are one of the worst organizations in the NFL. But they are better than the team that almost beat the Commanders twice last year. Also, there is a heavy reverse line movement on this game, with over two-third of the action coming in on Washington but the line sinking like a stone. There are always one or two surprise upsets in Week 1. This could be one.
2-Unit Play. Take #474 Seattle (+2.5) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
I hate Sam Darnold. He stinks. Everything else about Seattle I like. I like the defense. I like the youth and athleticism. I love the new scheme with Klint Kubiak. I think the arrow is pointed up. Seattle is still a tough place to play and after going 6-11 last year I don’t know that the 49ers deserve to be road favorites here. I had this game at Seattle -1.5. This is not the same 49ers team that was playing for Super Bowls. They are short on receivers and might not be as strong on defense. I think that Seattle’s secondary is going to dominate this game and turn this game into a grinder. I’ll take the points, the revenge, and the home field edge.
5-Unit Play. Take #476 Green Bay (-2) over Detroit (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
Look, this play has nothing to do with Micah Parsons. Anything he brings to this game is gravy. I have been saying all summer that I think that this Detroit team is going to take a step back this year. They are 43-18 ATS over the last several years and after a while the sportsbooks are going to catch up to them. It is a bit of a red flag that a team that went 15-2 and was the No. 1 seed in the NFC last year is an underdog in its first game. The Lions have new coaches and systems on both sides of the ball and may not be as sharp early. Green Bay dealt with a lot last year – and still won 11 games. They went 10-1 against the rest of the NFL and just 1-5 in their division (which was historically good). That was last year. This is this year. Detroit has won six of seven in the series, including a sweep last season. Green Bay outgained Detroit by 150 yards in their home loss and they lost on a field goal at the buzzer in the other one. The Packers are going to be ready to show the Lions: this isn’t last year.
Today’s Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Carolina at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #472 Denver (-1.5) over Tennessee (4 p.m.) AND Take #477 Houston (+10) over L.A. Rams (4 p.m.)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
5-Unit Play. Take #479 Kansas City (-3) Over LA Chargers (8 p.m., Friday, September 5)The Chiefs improved on offense with fixing the WR and Offensive line issues. Think the KC defense will continue to be solid. Add in that KC almost always win the turnover battle, Take Kansas City to win and cover in Brazil this year.
3-Unit Play. Take #455 Pittsburgh (-2.5) Over NY Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, September 7)
The Steelers just need Aaron Rodgers to be average and not turn the ball over, the defense of Pittsburgh will take over after that. Jets and Fields are just going to take time to figure out how to use his talents but not happening against team that new his weakness last year. Still like it if lines moves as well, would take PIT up to -4. Take Steelers to win and cover the spread.
2-Unit Play. Take #475 Over (47) Detroit vs Green Bay (4:25 p.m., Sunday, September 7)
The offenses will have big jump on these two defenses in this opening game. Detroit’s balance will be huge to keep Packers guessing and Lions score at least 27. Packers will be forced to force the offense which leads to even more points for Green Bay. Take the over in Green Bay and Detroit on Sunday week 1.
7-Unit Play. Take #479 Baltimore (-115, moneyline) Over Buffalo (8:20 p.m., Sunday, September 7)
The Ravens had tough loss to this Buffalo team with two late drops by TE Andrews, this time Baltimore doesn’t let Buffalo off of the hook. We have Baltimore getting better than good last year and we have Buffalo taking a slight step back. Take Baltimore to win on the moneyline on Sunday Night Football.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
4-Unit Play. Take #452 Philadelphia (-8) vs Dallas (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)The Eagles have edges all over the field, including skill position players, but this game is truly not about comparing QB Jalen Hurts to QB Dak Prescott. The big key here for me is in the trenches. The Cowboys are truly in trouble here in this match-up the way I see it. The Eagles again are so strong on the offensive line. Also, the defensive line again looks solid and the Eagles had some other defensive additions, particularly linebacker, that I expect to pay immediate dividends this season as well. The issue for Dallas is not only that their offensive line is mediocre at best, but RB Javonte Williams was not overly impressive with the Broncos. I don't think the Cowboys can get Williams going here and that means the Eagles defense keys on Prescott creating sacks and turnovers and this one turns into a rout by double digits. 4* PHILADELPHIA -8
3-Unit Play. Take #454 LA Chargers (+3) vs Kansas City (8:00 p.m., Friday, Sept. 5)
This is a neutral site game played at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This line opening at 2.5 is very interesting to me. Seems like an open invite to take a KC team dominating for years and that was 15-1 before losing their regular season finale while Chargers were only 8-6 before winning their final 3 games of the regular season. You see my point? Why did KC open as only a 2.5 point fave here? Exactly! This is especially true when you consider that the Chiefs have not only won 10 of the last 12 meetings but also 6 IN A ROW! This one looks different! Perhaps the Chargers facing the Chiefs outside of the USA is what it takes to snap that 6-game skid! Keep in mind the Chiefs going 15-2 last season included a lot of tight wins including some fortunate ones. As for Los Angeles, the Chargers defense was very strong last season in terms of points allowed. Now this LA team is in year 2 under Harbaugh and the offense should improve under Herbert in the 2nd year of the Harbaugh regime. 3* LA CHARGERS +3
3-Unit Play. Take #469/470 'Over' 47 Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
Baker Mayfield coming off a huge season for Tampa Bay with over 40 passing TD's and over 4,500 passing yards. Michael Pennix finished the season with some strong passing results the last handful of games for the Falcons. When these teams meet the scoreboard tends to light up as the last 3 meetings have averaged nearly 60 points. It is ironic this total is sitting on 47 as of 2:10 ET Thursday because 9 straight meetings in Atlanta have totaled at least 47 points! 2 of them landed on exactly 47 and the other 7 all totaled 54 or more - all at least a TD more than this number. The key here is I don't believe either defense can be trusted here and you are talking about two QBs that will be aggressive in airing it out here. Even with injuries at WR to start the season, the Bucs have Mike Evans plus an exciting rookie with Emeka Egbuka out of Ohio State. You just know Mayfield is going to find a way to have another big day and the Falcons are so strong at RB that this will also open up the passing options downfield for Pennix as well. Both teams have strong O-lines but you can't trust either D-line. Everything sets up well for the offenses to rule and we get some line value only because of the TB WR injury issues. 3* OVER 47 in Atlanta
3-Unit Play. Take #473 San Francisco (-140) at Seattle (4:05 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
The 49ers are a 2.5 point favorite as of Thursday 1:20 ET as I prepare the analysis. I am keeping this rating on the lower side at 3* and going with a rare money line pick here. I don't do a lot of these in NFL but I don't want to get burned here if SF wins this by only a point or two. Seattle used to be such a difficult place to play but that is just not the case anymore and, in fact, the Seahawks were 3-6 here last season. Yes, they added QB Sam Darnold and he is coming off a big season with Vikings but he does not have the same weapons here in Seattle. On that note the Seahawks were hurt by the the loss of Metcalf. RB McCaffery looks strong again (healthy) for the Niners here too and, on the other side of the ball, I like their defense to give the Seattle offense plenty of trouble. The 49ers off a disappointing season including losing their last 4 games of the season. That said, they can't wait to hit the ground running in 2025 and there is a reason a team that is on the road and was 6-11 last season is favored over a team that was 10-7 last season! The road team gets the call here. Lay the price. 3* SAN FRANCISCO -140
6-Unit Play. Take #478 LA Rams (-3) vs Houston (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
The Rams are strong in the trenches. As long-time followers know this is something I look for a lot in football match-ups though certainly there are other variables. In this case, the Rams are the vastly superior unit on both sides of the ball. If their O-line and D-line dominates the trenches as I am expecting they will, then LA should be able to roll to a comfortable win here. The offense looks stronger with the addition of WR Davonte Adams. Also, QB Matthew Stafford (back) is no longer listed on the injury report and this Rams teams looks solid at the skill positions. Couple that with a solid offensive line and they are going to be scoring well here at home in this one. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are very strong with their front 7 and that means the Texans likely will struggle to exploit the Rams mediocre area which is the secondary. In terms of statistical indicators, note that the Texans went 5-1 in their divisional games last season but just 5-6 outside the division! Remember last season the Jaguars and Titans struggled badly so this is noteworthy when you look at Houston's overall performance. Also, the Rams nearly beat the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles in the post-season. So the point is this LA team is flying under the radar a bit here and that is why they are my strongest play of Week 1 of the NFL action! 6* LA RAMS -3
5-Unit Play. Take #482 Chicago (+1.5) vs Minnesota (8:20 p.m., Monday, Sept. 8)
Let's get this straight. The Bears went 5-12 last season and the Vikings went 14-3 last season. Given those numbers the odds maker still opened up with Chicago favored in this one. Of course the line moved toward Minnesota and now the Vikings are favored. As long-time followers, I love to fade line moves and this is especially true when it changes who the favorite is as well as when it is in the NFL! Now, of course, this is never something to do blindly as the support must be there and in this case I strongly feel we have it! Ton of pressure on Vikings QB JJ McCarthy here as the NFL rookie finally gets his chance after missing last season with a meniscus tear. I also like the Bears offense to have surprising success schematically. Keep in mind, Bears HC Ben Johnson was the offensive coordinator for the Lions the last few years and his Detroit offense shredded the Vikings for an average of 389 yards in 4 Detroit victories over the Vikes. Now, of course, the Bears offense is not the Lions exactly in terms of personnel but the point is schematically I think he can help put this Bears offense in position for success here. At the same time, the Vikings offense has a rookie QB that, no matter how talented, is still playing his first ever regular season game at the NFL level. Not only that, the most important player protecting him, LT Christian Darrisaw may not play or he might be limited if he does play. He is coming back from a major injury and the Vikes want to keep the long-term picture in mind here! I also like the angle of McCarthy now getting all the hype and I have a strong feeling Caleb Williams is going to outperform here. Williams had some solid numbers last season and I expect him to do even more now with the head coaching change here to Johnson as well. Last season Williams had a solid 11-2 TD-INT ratio in his home games with a 65.6% completion rate as well. His overall numbers were solid too. Look for Williams and the Bears under Johnson's leadership to surprise here as I do expect the Vikings McCarthy to be successful long-term but it is not going to be immediate here in Week 1. A lot of pressure on the rookie QB and perhaps even more with this being near his home as McCarthy grew up in the Chicago area. Tough spot for the rookie. 5* CHICAGO +1.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. Take Arizona Cardinals -6.5 over the New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 1pm est)What if I told you, that Jonathan Gannon has never won a Season Openere and now he's in his 3rd year at Arizona. He lost to the Bills in the most recent season opener and I think he gets over that hump today. Arizona gets a healthy Murray and has really focused on improving their offensive line. Remember, Arizona closed out last year very strong as they beat San Francisco 47-24, barely lost to LA 9-13, only lost to Minnesota by 1 point and ended the year 8-9 which is fanstic. Gannon went 4-13 in his first year and now went 8-9 last year, is that not impressive? Nothing against Kellen Moore, he will certainly lead a decent team eventually but right now I think this is a vital game for Arizona as this is a team looking to take the next step and make it to the playoffs and losing this game is just not an option at all.
4-Unit Play. Take Green Bay Packers -2 over the Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
Green Bay lost both games to these Lions last year and now with Parsons, it could be an obvious take, but again, losing both teams to this team last year really stung and we like Green Bay to take the leap here. They are sort of all in at this point, played much better to close the preseason and Detroit has a brand new offensive and defensvie coordinator who have been hardly impressive this pre-season. Green Bay has a very hungry front 7 including Rashan Gray and Parsons, you have a healthier offenisve line, a more experienced Jordan Love, this team has Aaron Jones and Dillon and remember, the Packers only lost 10-22 to the Eagles in the wild card game last year - the Eagles went on to win the Super Bowl. Think the Packers will do well this week.
4-Unit Play. Take Baltimore Ravens PK over the Buffalo Bills (Sunday @ 8:20pm est)
The Ravens and Bills meet in a clash of AFC heavyweights. Buffalo remains dangerous with Josh Allen, but the Ravens' continuity on both sides of the ball gives them an ATS edge. Lamar Jackson's dual-threat ability and the ground game shorten possessions, limiting Buffalo's big-play explosiveness. Baltimore also has one of the deepest secondaries in the league and I think at the end of the day, the key here is that Baltimore lost to this team last year when it counted the most. It's either now or never for these Ravens and the Bills looked very suspect in the pre-season even in a game where they sort of really tried to win their last pre-season game, they gave up their fair share of points and I think Baltimore is the deeper team here and they lost on this very same field last year when it really counted, they won't do that this year.
4-Unit Play. Take Chicago Bears +1.5 over the Minnesota Vikings (Monday @ 8:15pm est)
The Bears Head Coach is no joke and he's a fantastic offensive coordinator and you saw that when the Bears beat the snot out of the Bills. The Bears have excitement, they have some depth and Minnesota though who has a great defense, is countered by the mind of the Bears Ben Johnson and I think with the young quarterback that Minnesota has been putting in a bubble wrap, will take him some time to get used to this level of talent on the opposing field and I think the Bears are going to rock on Monday Night and give all sorts of issues to the Vikings in a big win. Chicago has DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, a revamped line and I think all that makes the difference here.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #13 Unit Play. Take #453 Under 46.5 Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (8:00p.m., Friday September 5 NFL)
Both teams play outstanding team defense and this matchup in Brazil screams an ‘Under’ game. This game will be close as the last 3 meetings has been decided by a total of 10 points, and those 3 games have stayed ‘Under’ the total. I know last year the Chargers were an ‘Over’ machine, but I see them Friday night establishing the run and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. Last 6 meetings between these two teams 5 of them have stayed ‘Under’ the total.
3 Unit Play. Take #460 Jacksonville -3.5 over Carolina (1:00p.m., Sunday September 7 CBS)
Jacksonville gets this game at home, and they have all new management, and I see a different Jags squad on the field. Two years ago, these two teams met at EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville) and the Jags won 26-0. I’m not saying it will be that type of game but with Liam Coen as the new Head Coach I see the best Trevor Lawrence on the field and the Jags win their first home game. The Carolina Panthers are 2-15 SU in their last 17 road games.
7 Unit Play. Take #482 Chicago +1.5 over Minnesota (8:15p.m., Monday September 8 ESPN)
Here we go Chicago Bears fans! Monday Night in the Windy City the Ben Johnson era begins and I see a totally different Bears team on the field. The Vikings come to Chicago with a rookie QB J.J. McCarthy at center and how will this rookie handle the crowd noise at Solider Field. The Bears remember that the Vikings swept them last year including an overtime loss in Chicago 30-27. With the Ben Johnson era beginning Monday night I see the best game coming out of Calem Williams and the Bears offense should look different. The Chicago Bears have covered the spread 4 out 5 games as season openers as an underdog.
Tony George
NFL
Friday 9/5/25
3 Units
#453 Kansas City (-3) over LA Chargers *8 EST
A couple of reasons here. First Kansas City is better and healthier. LA has WR’s banged up, and OL that is banged up and KC flat out has more weapons. Also RB Harris missed a lot of camp with the eye injury from the July 4 fireworks incident he had. He did practice Tuesday. Despite WR Rice’s suspension, QB Mahomes will be fired up to spread it around to his skill players. KC has also taken note that many people discount them and the run is over, and that either Denver or LA will in fact win the division. This has not fallen on deaf ears in camp I have been told. LA’s defense is better in this game by a smidge and LA will concentrate on running it non stop with Harris and others, KC shut down Harris last year when he played for Pitt. KC will counter with more explosive plays and a nice balanced attack and I think that wins out. I would not be surprised to see a statement made by KC in this one actually. The game is in Brazil. The under 45.5 might be worth a look just as a bonus to you. Check the weather as well.
Sunday
9/7/25
5 Units
#458 Indianapolis (PK) over Miami *1 EST
I think this is a mis-match up front. Many times, Week 1 provides massive surprises, but 1 thing that remains consistent in the NFL, if you win the battle in the trenches, you win games, especially at home. Indy starts Daniel Jones at QB who won the job in camp, and while not an elite QB he is better than Richardson. He also is a dual threat QB and can break runs and is a very tough guy and can take a hit. He can manage this game with Taylor at RB who should have a field day running the ball with this OL. This OL for Indy is Top 3 or 4 in the NFL and I expect them to be able to move the chains and put points up against a mediocre defense in Miami. I have never been sold on Miami, or their head coach and Tua at QB. Indy has not won an opening game in 5 years and they know it. Also, a note – The Dolphins starting kicker is out and he was Pro Bowler last year.
3 Units
#475 / #476 Detroit / Green Bay (Under 47) *4:25 EST
Looks like shootout huh? Not so fast. Even if Parsons does not play fro Green Bay on defense, they are upgraded. Detroit breaking in a new OC in this game and they looked iffy at best in preseason on offense. I know the QB’s and I know the offensive weapons both teams have here, but this will be a tightly contested game and points will be at premium in my opinion. Detroit’s defense is no joke this year and they are vastly improved. This opened at 48 and dropped for a reason, sharps hit it early. I will play this Under.
3 Units
#455 / #456 Pittsburgh / NY Jets (Under 38.5) *1 EST
Arron Rodgers and Justin Fields debuts. Fields knows the Pitt defense. Rodgers knows the Jets defense. Sounds like an advantage for both offenses. NO, the defenses are the stars of this game. Rodgers QBR rating was deplorable last year. Both teams have capable running back units and they will use them. Rodgers is immobile in the pocket and will use short passing routes to move the chains. Not sure what we get out of NY on offense, because they were horrific in 2024 and all they did was change QB’s, and Fields has been a bust everywhere and could not win the starting job in Pitt until injuries to Pickett put him there at times and he played behind an aging Wilson last year. Defense in this one, has 17-14 written all over it.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120) *1 EST
3 Units
Teaser #467 Arizona DOWN to (-0.5) and Tease #477 Houston UP to (+9)
Vernon Croy
5-Unit Play: #451 Dallas +8-110 over Philadelphia (Thursday, September 4, 2025, 8:20pm ET)Take Dallas ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I would not be shocked to see Dallas win this game outright. Dallas is a much-improved team coming into the season especially with a healthy quarterback. I believe that Dallas can step up defensively in this game and stop the running attack of Philadelphia. Offensively I believe Dallas will be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. I do expect Dallas to be prolific offensively this season and Dak returning to his 2023 form. Play Dallas ATS
7-Unit Play: #454 Los Angeles +3-110 over Kansas City (Friday, September 5, 2025, 8:00pm ET)
Take Los Angeles ATS as my top NFL pick for Friday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect this Kansas City team to regress coming into the season. Los Angeles is a much better team than we saw last season. I do expect Los Angeles to step up defensively in this game and I also expect them to put up a big number against this Kansas City defense that I believe is overrated coming into the season. Los Angeles also comes into this game with a chip on their shoulder because they have lost seven straight games against this Kansas City team including their last meeting back on December 8th by just two points at Kansas City. Play Los Angeles ATS
6-Unit Play: #459 Carolina +3.5-110 over Jacksonville (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Carolina ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have Carolina winning this game outright here Sunday. I believe that Carolina is one of the most underrated teams coming into the season and I do expect them to be very good defensively. This is a very inconsistent Jacksonville team and I believe that they will struggle offensively in this game. I also expect Carolina to win the turnover battle and they also come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after their last meeting in 2023 where Jacksonville shut them out 26-0 at Jacksonville. I do expect Carolina's offensive line to have plenty of success here Sunday and Carolina will be able to run between the tackles. Play Carolina ATS
Scott Spreitzer
5-Unit Play: Take 466 Over 43.5 Raiders-Patriots (1 p.m., Sunday, September 7)I expect both offenses to be much improved over last year’s editions. Patriots’ QB Drake Maye not only has talented personnel around him but he’ll operate under OC Josh McDaniels and that means a quicker working attack. Chip Kelly is the new OC in Vegas and Raiders’ QB Geno Smith has super-stud TE Brock Bowers & RB Ashton Jeanty. With the Pats focusing on those two targets on the ground and through the air, Smith does have a couple receivers who can beat New England on the corners, especially with star CB Christian Gonzalez nursing a hamstring injury. I’m playing the Over between the Raiders & Patriots. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 482 Bears +1.5 over Vikings (8:15 p.m., Monday, Sept. 8)
I’m backing the Bears on Monday night. Minnesota QB JJ McCarthy makes his first start and it’s on the road in the division on Monday Night Football – tough task. Making things even tougher, McCarthy won’t have Jordan Addison – he’s out. And Justin Jefferson is expected to play but he’s not healthy. The Bears’ defense looks underrated and I expect the offense to be improved with new HC Ben Johnson. We have a playoff team laying points to a non-playoff team, a solid angle over the years, and of course, a divisional home dog, albeit a short line, which has been fantastic for years. I’m backing the Bears. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play - [452] Philadelphia Eagles -8 (-110) over Dallas Cowboys (9/4 | 8:20PM EST) The champs open the season under the lights, a spot that's historically been good to defending Super Bowl winners. Dallas enters with plenty of noise after losing Micah Parsons in a blockbuster trade, and that's a blow that's hard to spin as anything but negative. Philly, on the other hand, returns with continuity and the depth to handle an early divisional matchup. Laying more than a touchdown isn't ideal in theory, but this feels like a case where the gap in stability is too wide to ignore. Philadelphia -8 is the side.4-Unit Play - [453] Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-110) over Los Angeles Chargers (9/5 | 8:00PM EST) The NFL opens in Brazil with a marquee AFC clash. Jim Harbaugh has covered five straight openers, but he inherits a Chargers team still learning his system. The real angle here is the Super Bowl loser hangover ? since 2000, those teams are just 6-19 ATS in Week 1. That trend points squarely against the Chargers, making Kansas City the side that benefits from a market over-reaction. With Mahomes and Reid bringing stability against a team in transition, laying -3 with the Chiefs feels like the sharper bet.
6-Unit Play - [466] New England Patriots -2.5 (-110) over Las Vegas Raiders (9/7 | 1:00PM EST) Two new head coaches square off, but the edge looks clear in Foxborough. New England has gone from a 4.5 win total last year to 8.5 this year with Mike Vrabel taking over, and the culture shift has been obvious from camp through Week 1 prep. This is the first time the Pats have been favored since 2023, a sign of how quickly expectations have changed. Pete Carroll returns with Geno Smith under center, but this roster is still adjusting to his system. With Vrabel's physical style already resonating and home-field behind them, New England -2.5 is the play.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #451 Dallas (+8) over Philadelphia (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)Nope, I'm not buying the Dallas is awufl hype. I like this Cowboys offense, and I like how they "improved" their defense, against the run. The Dallas secondary is going to be solid, and they should be better against the run after the departure of Micah Parsons. The Cowboys offense absolutely has enough firepower to keep this game withing the number as Dallas has multiple weapons at their disposal. The Cowboys were an 11 win team just a few seasons ago, and still won seven games last year, with half a roster. Are the Eagles a better team than the Cowboys? No doubt about it, but they are not covering this Thursday Night Fooball line. Give me the underdog.
3-Unit Play. Take #461 New York Giants (+6) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
The Commanders may win this game outright but they are not covering this line. This is the most momentum the Giants will have all season long, and that's not a good thing for Giants fans. New York has a brutal schedule, but they have a ton of confidence coming out of the preseason and they fully believe they can win this game. The Giants have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL and they are going to keep New York in this game. Teams have had a year to watch film and prep for Daniels, and it will show. No, the Giants won't shut him down but they will slow him up enough to keep this game within a touchdown. Give me the points.
3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44 Houston at LA Rams (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
The Houston defense is oustanding, and the Rams offense is beat up. The Rams are going to come out of the gate slowly, and the first big hit that Matt Stafford takes will slow them down even more. The Rams on the otherhand have a top notch coaching staff that will be prepared for the Texans offense. This is absolutely a game that I think the defenses will be ahead of the offenses overall. I like this game to be closer to 30 total points than 40, so there is a ton of value on the 'under' here.
7-Unit Play. Take #482 Chicago (+1.5) over Minnesota (8:15 p.m., Monday, Sept. 8)
I am not buying into the fact that JJ McCarthy is going into Chicago and winning this game. The Bears are NOT as bad as people think they are, and this is a great spot for them. McCarthy will be making his first ever pro start and he hasn't built up a rapport with his wide outs. Jordan Addison is/has been suspended, Jefferson has been hurt, Theilin just got there, and Jalen Nailor has been dinged up as well. The Vikings also have three new offensive linemen to try and keep the Bears at bay. Chicago can get after the QB and they are going to do just that. Yes, the Bears struggled against the run last season and they could do the same thing here, but I just don't see how they lose this game. Chicago has plenty of offensive weapons to get the job done in this matchup. DJ Moore, Swift, Odunze, Kmet, and Loveland are more than capable of finding space and scores to get the Bears a win. This could arguably be the biggest momentum spot for the Bears all season as they have everything in front of them and nothing to lose as they are the underdog. Give me the home team here as the Bears start 1-0 on the year.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Sunday September 7th 2025-NFL-
7 Unit Play Take #475 Detroit +2.5 over Green Bay (4:25pm est):
Most seem to forgot just how good this Detroit Lions team was last season as they finished the regular season 15-2 overall and they did this despite suffering the most starters lost to injury by any team on defense in the NFL over the last six seasons. Lions head coach Dan Campbell has been a point spread covering machine over the years posting the best ATS record for any NFL head coach over the past four seasons. Detroit has a ton of star power and I think that's one area Green Bay lacks as the Packers no doubt are a solid team but because of this lack of stars they tend to struggle when they are asked to step up in class and go up against the better teams in the league as GB went 2-6 straight-up versus playoff teams in 2024. The Packers are also dealing with some health concerns coming into this one as a handful of their guys aren't 100% and have missed practice this week including newly acquired Micah Parsons who's having some back issues. The Lions have dominated this series of late winning 6 of the their last 7 versus the Packers.
Play Detroit plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #455 Pittsburgh -2.5 over New York Jets (1:00pm est):
These are the kind of games that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has excelled in his career, lower lined contests. The Steelers have a solid above average defense but were lacking even average quarterback play last season. I think they greatly upgraded things during the off-season at the all important QB spot by getting veteran Aaron Rodgers to run the show this year. Many feel like Rodgers has fallen way off but keep in mind he played well the 2nd half of last season throwing 17 touchdowns to just 3 picks for an awful New York Jets offense in his last 9 games. On the other side of things New York is starting quarterback Justin Fields in this one. Fields was a member of this Pittsburgh team he faces off against here and I feel like the Steelers coaching staff should have a good read on how to defend Fields. Keep in mind as well the Steelers defense is built to handle elusive QB's like Fields as they go up against the extremely dangerous Lamar Jackson multiple times each season and they do a decent job defending him.
Play Pittsburgh in this one.
4 Unit Play Take #479 Baltimore -1 over Buffalo (8:20pm est):
I think Baltimore is the best team in football right now and it's not really very close either. The Ravens were dominant last year as well and they crushed this Buffalo team in the regular season. They did lose to the Bills in the playoffs but it was a game that Baltimore appeared to be the much better of these two teams. Now the Ravens come into this game with not only revenge but also with arguably the best head coach in football in John Harbaugh and he's had all summer to plan for this game.
Take Baltimore.
3 Unit Play Take #470 Atlanta +2 over Tampa Bay (1:00pm est):
Divisional underdogs are always the first place one should look in the NFL in week one and we have a solid one here in this one. Not much separated these two teams last season besides bad/good luck. The Atlanta Falcons started off last season going 6-3 but stumbled down the stretch dropping 6 of their last 8 contests. The Falcons lost four games in the 2nd half of the season in 2024 by 4 points or less and their last two losses during the year came in overtime. One big reason for their bad play down the stretch was they were playing with an injured Kirk Cousins at quarterback and that shouldn't be an issue here as Michael Penix is the guy behind center and that should mean an improved Falcons offense. On the other side of things Tampa Bay caught a ton of breaks last year in many of the key areas that I like to look. The Bucs were also swept last year by these Falcons and they come into this game dealing with some key offensive line injuries.
Play Atlanta plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #474 Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco (4:05pm est):
I don't think there's any reason for San Francisco to be favored in this one. The 49ers are not the same powerhouse team that they were in previous seasons. They will have a very easy schedule this season so overall they should have a solid year but I still think this is a tough matchup here for them going on the road in a very rowdy environment and having to win against a divisional foe. I really like this Seattle defense under 2nd year head coach Mike Macdonald as he's a defensive guru and the Seahawks brought a new offensive coordinator in this year and reports out of training camp were very good with the work that he's done so far.
Play Seattle plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #460 Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) Over Carolina Panthers. (1:00p.m, Sunday September 7th)Jacksonville has a lot of ground to make up from last season, and we are high on this team here. Jacksonville should be much more balanced on the offensive and defensive side with guys now in their key roles for numerous seasons together. Trevor Lawrence is in a must-win situation here all season long, as he has not quite panned out to the expectations. Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen should have a massive impact for Lawrence and this Jaguars offense. We expect a very strong run game with Etienne and a very poised pass game with Lawrence and the addition of Travis Hunter. Carolina is a hit-or-miss team in our eyes. I have heard and seen some good things from this team, yet again I refuse to put my trust in Bryce Young. I do not think he is a high-caliber QB, and I do not see him being able to move the ball on this Jacksonville defense, especially in Jacksonville here. Let’s lay the -3.5 points with the Jags, as we expect this to be a 2-score win.
Take #460 Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) Over Carolina Panthers.
Griffin Murphy
5 Unit Play - Take #477 Houston (+3) Over LA Rams. (4:25p.m, Sunday, September 7th)
Houston is a very strong team with very minimal changes on both sides of the ball. Houston is a very well-coached team, and we have very high expectations for them this season. Los Angeles is also very well coached and well solidified; the issue right now is Stafford at the QB spot. Stafford is still banged up with a back injury and should be immobile in the pocket here in week 1. Houston has a very strong front 7, and we anticipate a tremendous pass rush in this game to keep Stafford inside the pocket. We also believe CJ Stroud is going to light this defense apart, as they have not fully assembled together as a team just quite yet. Houston is the more prepared and talented team in our eyes, and we are gracefully going to take the +3 points even though we believe this game should be won outright.
Take #477 Houston (+3) Over LA Rams.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
6 Unit – Take #479 Baltimore Ravens ML (-115) over Buffalo Bills (8:20p.m, Sunday, September 7th)We have a massive Week 1 matchup on Sunday Night Football to kick off the regular season in the NFL. This matchup is between the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills here Sunday night. Both teams enter the season with Super Bowl expectations, but the edge lies with Baltimore heading into this one. The Ravens return with one of the deepest and most balanced rosters in football, led by former MVP Lamar Jackson, who now has a full arsenal of weapons including Derrick Henry in the backfield and Zay Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins out wide. Baltimore’s offensive line remains elite, and their run-first identity paired with Jackson’s dual-threat ability gives them the kind of flexibility that’s hard to stop, especially against a Buffalo defense that comes into this game banged up in the secondary. The Bills, while still dangerous with Josh Allen at the helm, have real questions to answer on defense. Their secondary is thin due to injuries, and their pass rush has shown inconsistencies without Von Miller fully healthy. The Ravens also come into this one with extra motivation after last season’s playoff heartbreak and a blowout win over Buffalo in the regular season that showed just how dangerous they can be when fully healthy. With a clean slate, better health, and more depth on both sides of the ball, Baltimore has the matchup edge. Factor in their strong Week 1 track record and the overall momentum building from a complete offseason, and this is a spot where the Ravens can set the tone for the year with a statement win on national television.
Take #479 Baltimore Ravens ML (-115) over Buffalo Bills
Nick Menken
3 Unit – Take #477 HOU Texans (+3) over LA Rams (3:25p.m, Sunday, September 7th)
We have an intriguing Week 1 matchup as the Houston Texans travel to face the Los Angeles Rams, and this is a spot where Houston has real value not just to cover, but to win outright. The Texans enter 2025 with high expectations after a breakout year from C.J. Stroud and a strong offseason that addressed key needs. Stroud now has more protection thanks to several offensive line additions and more weapons around him, including Christian Kirk, Nico Collins, and a healthy Nick Chubb in the backfield. The Rams will face a more complete and explosive offense right from the start. Defensively, Houston features one of the most aggressive front sevens in the league, with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter poised to cause serious problems for Matthew Stafford, who comes into Week 1 reportedly less than 100%. The Rams also have concerns along the offensive line, which makes their quarterback more vulnerable against pressure. Meanwhile, Houston’s secondary with Derek Stingley Jr. and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, can hold its own against LA’s weapons. With sharper depth, better health, and more momentum heading into the season, the Texans are built to push the pace and force LA into uncomfortable situations. Getting points with the more complete team, especially one with playoff aspirations and a proven young QB, makes Houston play strong with the points.
Take #477 HOU Texans (+3) over LA Rams
Nick Menken
1 Unit – Take #482 CHI Bears ML (+105) over MIN Vikings (8:15p.m, Monday, September 8th)
Monday Night Football kicks off with an NFC North matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings come in with high hopes, but they’ll be relying on rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy to lead the offense for the first time in his NFL career. While Minnesota’s secondary showed promise last year and looks to improve, a lot depends on how McCarthy handles this prime-time debut. The Bears, on the other hand, had a big offseason—bringing in key players on the offensive line and a new head coach in Ben Johnson. With Caleb Williams under center, Chicago’s season looks bright, and being considered underdogs at home against a division rival feels like a slight they’ll want to correct right away. This game could set the tone for both teams, but I expect the Bears to come out strong and take home the win in Week 1.
Take #482 CHI Bears ML (+105) over MIN Vikings
Nick Menken
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