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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
THURSDAY NFL SELECTION1-Unit Play. Take #452 Tampa Bay (-5.5) over Atlanta (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 11)
I wasn’t going to take a position in this game, but the line movement in this game made me reconsider. This line was 4.0 Wednesday morning. It is approaching 6.0 as we get closer to kickoff. Several kay players from Atlanta has been ruled out. They haven’t been very good to begin with so I don’t know that they have the good to win this game. The coaching staff may be losing the locker room and other than Bijan Robinson they just don’t have reliable weapons on that side of the ball. Tampa has been playing like trash. But they are getting healthier and are just so much better offensively.
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTION
1-Unit Play. Take #197 Boise State (+9.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)
Note: This is the L.A. Bowl.
I just think this is a bigger game for the Broncos than it is for the Huskies. I don’t think Washington cares very much about playing in this game. But Boise always gets up for a chance to take out one of the big boys. Bowl underdogs on a winning streak have traditionally been strong value plays in the postseason and I think the Broncos will lose valiantly.
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #456 Houston (-9.5) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
This Arizona team has just been decimated by injuries. They lost their left tackle for the rest of the season and they are pretty much just down to Michael Wilson, Trey McBride and Bam Knight on offense, with a backup quarterback and a patchwork line. That's not going to be good enough against the league's No. 1 defense. These guys have held three four straight opponents - including Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen - below 20 points. Houston's offense has been shaky. But they have C.J. Stroud and several of their key receivers back. Arizona's defense has allowed 40 or more points in three of their last five games and they are down to No. 24 in the league. Houston has some major momentum, and Arizona has some quit potential, and I think the Texans will keep rolling here at home.
7-Unit Play. Take #458 Philadelphia (-11.5) over Las Vegas (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
The Eagles have been absolutely pathetic as a large favorite. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 8.0 or more since 2022. So why back them here? It's really just how little I think of the Raiders right now. They have lost seven straight games and are dealing with a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. I actually think Kenny Pickett will be better than Geno Smith here. But the Raiders have been pathetic on the road. They've played five of their last eight games at home so we haven't seen how bad it can be very often. In their last four road games they have lost by 17, 3, 31 and 34 points, getting outscored by a combined 112-27 in those four games (28-7 average score). Philadelphia has lost three straight and they are desperate. The Eagles have played a brutal schedule over the past two months. And the only home game against a weak sister team resulted in a 38-20 win over the Giants. I think the Eagles will take out some frustration here and get a double-digit win.
1-Unit Play. Take #460 Jacksonville (-13) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
The Jets will be starting an undrafted rookie, Brady Cook, for the first time in 50 years. Their backup is a guy they picked up off the street on Wednesday. Cook had two interceptions and two fumbles last week at home against Miami in a 24-point loss to the Dolphins. I think it will be worse here on the road against an underrated Jaguars defense. The Jets can run the ball. But Jacksonville is No. 1 in the NFL against the run. Jacksonville are idiot losers that will make enough mistakes to keep the Jets in the game. But the Jets have lost each of their last two road games by 13 points - with veteran quarterbacks in those ones - and their five-game ATS winning streak is a thing of the past.
3-Unit Play. Take #461 Cleveland (+7.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
I don't trust the Bears as a large favorite. This is a vastly improved team. However, they are coming off two emotional, tight games against the Eagles and rival Packers. This game has letdown written all over it. The Browns have the No. 2 total defense in the league (No. 1 against the pass). It's going to be freezing cold and this game could turn into a war of attrition. The Bears have a ton of close wins this year against bad teams, including wins over the Raiders, Commanders, Bengals and Giants that came by a total of 11 combined points. The Bears have a rematch with the Packers next week. I think they will get caught in a letdown/look ahead spot here and will have to grind out a close, low-scoring game.
4-Unit Play. Take #468 Kansas City (-5.5) over L.A. Chargers (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
I just don't think that the Chiefs are done. They haven't played terrible football; they just haven't played well enough against an absolute bear of a schedule. The Chiefs are playing with revenge in this game after losing to the Chargers in the season opener. Los Angeles is on a short week after their lucky OT win on Monday night. Los Angeles benefitted from five Jalen Hurts turnovers and several Eagles mistakes in that game and still barely won. They can't protect their quarterback and their losses this year have been ugly, coming by 29, 14, 17 and 3 points. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in those four road games and I think they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Kansas City's offensive line is a little healthier and I expect Patrick Mahomes to rebound from one of the worst games of his career.
3-Unit Play. Take #478 L.A. Rams (-5.5) over Detroit (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
I was one of the only handicappers selling Detroit Lions stock prior to the season. I knew this team was going to take a step back and that they were vulnerable. Detroit is coming off a blowout win over Dallas. But that was more about the Cowboys playing like losers for half the game. Detroit was blown out at Kansas City and lost at Philadelphia, the last two road games they played against playoff-caliber competition. Detroit has played three straight at home and five of their last seven in their home stadium. The Rams have been one of the league's best teams over the past two months. They've won eight of nine and only one of those wins - against the equally excellent Seahawks - was by fewer than two touchdowns. The Rams lost twice to the Lions last year: once in the 2023-24 playoffs and once at Detroit in Week 1 of the 2024 season. I think they are going to want some revenge and will want to prove themselves against a playoff-caliber opponent. Throw in that the Rams are in a battle for the division and No. 1 seed in the NFC and they have plenty of motivation to bring their A game.
3-Unit Play. Take #482 Dallas (-5.5) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
The Cowboys aren't out of the hunt yet. I think they are going to continue to play well after last Thursday's disappointing effort. CeeDee Lamb looks ready to come back and the Cowboys offense should be able to put a ton of pressure on Minnesota's defense. The Vikings are coming off a shutout win over Washington - just one week after themselves being shutout. I'm not buying J.J. McCarthy, who only threw for 163 yards last week. Dallas has faced Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff over the last three weeks so this is a step down. Minnesota's last four road games have resulted in one weird win and losses by 26, 23 and 27 points. Dallas has its back against the wall and I think they will play like it.
3-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #456 Houston (-2.5) over Arizona (1 p.m.) AND Take #474 Denver (+9.5) over Green Bay (4 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #458 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Las Vegas (1 p.m.) AND Take #462 Seattle (-6.5) over Indianapolis (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #460 Jacksonville (-6.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.) AND Take #476 New Orleans (+10) over Carolina (4 p.m.)
This Week's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 42.5 Arizona at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 39.5 Cleveland at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.5 Carolina at New Orleans (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.5 Minnesota at Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
1-Unit Play. Take #483 Miami (+3.5) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 15)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
NFL2-Unit Play. Take #455 Arizona (+10) Over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, December 14)
Getting double digits in the NFL is always a favorite angle of ours, especially when facing a lower-scoring game, which we expect this game to be. Houston's offense isn’t doing much to help the defense, and I think that’s the reason they don’t cover this week. Take Arizona plus the points to cover the spread.
5-Unit Play. Take #475 Carolina (-2.5) Over New Orleans (4:25 p.m., Sunday, December 14)
The Panthers are being disrespected at this current line. Carolina's running game has been very dependable, and I think it will carry them against a bad Saints team. New Orleans had a nice win last week but will come crashing back to earth this week. Take Carolina to win and cover the spread.
7-Unit Play. Take #484 Pittsburgh (-3) Over Miami (8:15 p.m., Monday, December 15)
The Steelers' defense has not been what we expected this season, but the good news is they appear to be showing some improvement. In cold-weather conditions typical of Pittsburgh, the Dolphins will struggle to handle the physicality and the cold. Take Pittsburgh to win and cover this week.
3-Unit Play. Take 7 point Teaser: New England (+8) Over Buffalo & Philadelphia (-4.5) over Las Vegas (Sunday, December 14)
Think Patriots are going to win this game so love the extra points. Also think Philly is going to kill the bad Raiders.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
4-Unit Play. Take #452 Tampa Bay (-5.5) vs Atlanta (8:15 p.m., Thu, Dec. 11)Excellent value here with less than a TD on the Bucs. Tampa Bay might get back WR Evans and McMillan but, either way, Tampa Bay's offense should enjoy plenty of success here at home as they take on a struggling Falcons defense. Atlanta has allowed at least 24 points in 6 of the last 7 games and that pattern continues here. I know that Atlanta, of course, would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here but the Falcons just are too far gone. TB at home and with getting some reinforcements and Baker Mayfield in a bounce back situation...I just do not see them being denied. 4* TAMPA BAY -5.5
6-Unit Play. Take #463 Buffalo (-$115) at New England (1 p.m., Sun, Dec. 14)
I was waiting for this one. Many might be surprised to see this line around a pick'em. After all, New England is at home and coming off a bye week and they have the better overall record plus are 5-2 at home while the Bills are 3-3 on the road. So why is this line set this way? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. Buffalo is the play here! The Bills are seeking revenge for that 23-20 home loss to the Patriots earlier this season. That remains the Bills only home loss this season and this is their chance to not only get payback but also to cut the Pats division lead down to just a single game. Make no mistake this is a huge game for Buffalo and also note that many times teams lose momentum when they have a bye week on a long winning streak. Sometimes teams that have been losing do love a bye and really need it but, in this case, New England had won 10 straight games. Again, I repeat, at home and off a bye and yet this line is a pick'em even though they have the better record plus have won 10 straight games! Looks fishy, does it not? I love spots like this and am all over the Bills here. Note that the Patriots have played a much easier schedule and also when they beat the Bulls they benefited from a 3-1 turnover variance in their favor! This is a great spot for contrarian bettors like me and I am going with my top NFL game of the week here with confidence. Strength of schedule matters plenty. The Bills played defending AFC Champ KC plus faced a solid Baltimore team and also a strong Houston team plus this New England team. Now go look at the Pats schedule and you will not be impressed. Both the Pats and Bills did blast a Carolina team that is now 7-6 this season. The Bills get it done on the road here. 6* BUFFALO -$115
3-Unit Play. Take #471 Indianapolis (+13.5) at Seattle (4:25 p.m., Sun, Dec. 14)
I am aware of the QB situation for the Colts but I feel strongly this is far too many points to be giving Indy here. Keep in mind, this is still a highly motivated Indianapolis team that still has a chance in the AFC South division too. As for the Seahawks, they are having a great season and are tied with the Rams for the top spot in the NFC West. Complicating this spot for Seattle is the fact that the Hawks have a huge game with LA on deck! Not only is Los Angeles up next for the Seahawks, that is a Thursday game. I feel that is making this a very tricky spot for Seattle. The Colts are a solid enough team all over the field that they will not be blown out and don't be surprised if they surprise at QB by getting some decent play at that position here in this one. 3* INDIANAPOLIS +13.5
3-Unit Play. Take #481 Minnesota (+6.5 -115) at Dallas (8:20 p.m., Sun, Dec. 14)
Vikings off a great game on both sides of the ball and the Cowboys are simply over-valued here. All the pressure is on Dallas and note that the Cowboys have played 13 games this season and only 3 of them were Dallas wins by more than a 3 point margin and here we are catching 6 points. Also, Minny had a very tough schedule last 7 games until they ran into Washington (31-0 win) last week. The Vikings did start this season 3-2 and one of the losses was by just 3 points. What I am getting at here is that Minny has performed decently against mediocre to sub-par teams and that means plenty of value against a 6-6-1 Dallas team that has a horrible defense. 3* MINNESOTA +6.5 -115
3-Unit Play. Take #483 Miami (+3.5) at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m., Mon, Dec. 15)
Another contrarian play for me here. Yes, I know it will be very cold in Pittsburgh and I know all about Miami's long-term struggles in cold weather but the Steelers are off of a key divisional win over Baltimore plus they rank poorly statistically on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh is 0-3 SU the last 3 times when off of a SU win and had lost 5 of 7 before beating the Ravens. The Dolphins have won 4 straight and are a confident underdog playing freely now and those loose and relaxed underdogs are often the most dangerous. Steelers off the win in battle for 1st place in the division and this is a true flat spot for them here after that AFC North battle! 3* MIAMI +3.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. #468. Take Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 over LA Chargers (Sunday @ 1pm est)Chargers come off a monster win over the lowly Eagles - Yes, I said it the lowly Eagles who are 8-5 and who are struggling terribly right now. So, that win is not as impressive in our book. The Chargers are the same team that just a couple of weeks ago lost to hte Jaguarsy by 29 points and we have not forgotten that and we love the fact that these Chiefs come in losing back to back games and losing to the mighty Texans who held them to just 10 points. Enter, the Chargers who are nowhere near the defense of the Texans who are the #1 defense in the league and if these Chargers gave up 35 points to the Jaguars, they get to face a Chiefs team that is coming off rare back to back losses who are going to look for the beatdown and blowout here over a division rival and we love the Chiefs to get after it here as their entire season is on the line.
4-Unit Play. #463. Take Buffalo Bills -115 ML over New England Patriots (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Buffalo was down 10-21 in their last game to the Bengals as they were clearly looking ahead to the Patriots game. Note, the Patriots are good, I'm not taking anything away from that, but the last 8 teams they have faced are either terrible teams, losing teams or 1 game above .500 (the Buccaneers). The Bills lost to this team last time by 3 points earlier this year despite outgaining them and now this is big boy football, the Bills did not take them seriously last time and they will definitely take them serious this time and we love for these Bills to step up with revenge with a monster win and show the Patriots their true experience and not take them so lightly.
4-Unit Play. #478. Tale LA Rams -5.5 over Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
Lions beat them twice last year, makes sense to back them. Per this game, these Rams step up here I think as they have lost to the Lions in back to back games dating back to last year and as these Lions come off 40+ points against a terrible Cowboys defense and as they face a Rams team who has lost to this team twice last year and once in overtime, you will see a hungry Rams team go for the blowout here as no way McVay loses to these guys 3 straight times.
4-Unit Play. #473. Take Green Bay Packers -2 over Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
The Broncos did beat Vegas and others last game, but we are not sold on them here. Denver beat them by 2 points about two years ago and Love did not have a good game as these Broncos who are on a great winning streak come in, I think this is show time for the Packers, the Packers are the same team that went into Detroit and won outright, they have won 4 in a row and we love for them to send a message to the league with a monster win here on the road as we believe their defensive line is setting at the right time and we love the Packers here.
4-Unit Play. #483. Take Miami Dolphins +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday @ 8:15pm est)
Do you know who is 6-7 - the Miami Dolphins? They are one win away from having the same record as these Steelers basically and we love the Dolphins as no one has paid attention to them, and they have ever so quietly won won 4 in a row including their best game over their last 4 weeks was against the Bills beating them 30-13. This coach has taken so much heat in McDaniels and we think he shocks the world here by helping this team and coaching them to a fantastic game plan as they win outright asll the turmoil with Tua calms down here with a monster, monster win for the Dolphins and we'll be happy to take the points.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #156 Unit Play. Take #474 Denver +2.5 over Green Bay (4:25p.m., Sunday December 14 CBS)
The Packers come to Mile High Stadium riding a four-game winning streak, but they haven’t played a defense like the Broncos. Jordan Love has been playing some good ball as of late throwing for seven passing touchdowns in two games, but I still remember what the Broncos defense did to Patrick Mahomes in their backyard. Denver is coming into this game riding a 10-game winning streak and I see a defensive battle brewing in Colorado and I’m taking the Broncos ‘D’ to carry them to a home underdog winner. The Broncos have won 11-Straight home games and the Packers have failed to cover the spread in their last 7 games as a betting favorite.
4 Unit Play. Take #484 Pittsburgh -3 over Miami (8:15p.m., Monday December 15 ESPN)
A couple weeks ago this game seemed like a dud but all of sudden the Dolphins rang off 4-Straight winners and the Steelers won a big road game against Baltimore. I know the Ravens gained over 400 yards against the Steelers defense and now Wyatt is questionable for Pittsburgh, but I see Steelers offense carrying their momentum. The Dolphins defense ranks poorly against the pass and if Rodgers plays like he did last week I see the Steelers winning by a touchdown. Let’s not forget that the Steelers have won 22 of their last 23 Monday Night Football games. Pittsburgh have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as home favorites versus AFC opponents.
Tony George
NFL
Sunday 12/14/25
3 Units
Take #476 LA Chargers (+5.5) over Kansas City
There is value over any number over 3 here. LA already beat up KC in Brazil and are rolling, and just beat Philly, who wrecked KC this year already, not to mention destroyed KC in the Super Bowl last year. KC cannot run the ball, and LA is off a game where they let Barley run wild on them and they will want to atone for that. KC has huge OL issues and frankly are just not executing on offense at all. Cold weather and outside has many thinking LA cannot play well, I disagree. KC is a mess this year and this will no doubt be a down to the wire divisional game. KC cannot put anyone away, they are not the same team as the last 6 years and it has been on display all season. I do not see that changing even if they sneak in a 3-point win here.
6 Units
Take #458 Philadelphia *FIRST HALF LINE (-7) over Las Vegas
*1 EST
It is rare and uncommon that I get involved in a double digit spread game in the NFL at (-11.5), but that is just how bad the Raiders are. HOWEVER, I will play the first half line and lower the number. The Eagles should have at least a 10-point lead here by half. Philly in a funk and needs a get right game, and this is the one they drop the hammer in and get themselves going. This is a bad spot for the Raiders on the road in the cold against an angry Eagles team fresh off a national TV loss in bad fashion. Outside of Crosby on defense, LV has nothing to offer resistance, and is allowing big points to opponents. Philly also got Barkley going last week. The Raider offense has no imagination and are totally predictable. Expect the Eagles defense to dominate.
3 Units
Take #463 Buffalo ML (-120) over New England
*1 EST
The Bills outplayed the Pats in the first meeting and still lost, they turned it over late 3 times and it cost them. The Pats are a great story this year but their schedule is far from impressive. It is hard to beat a team in the division better than you twice in a season and Buffalo will be ready to fire out of the gate here from the get go. Yeas I am not sold on the Bills defense and this may be high scoring barring a major weather issue, but then again Buffalo was scoring in a snowstorm last week when Cincy gifted them a game late in the game. I like Buffalo by 3.
ADDITIONAL 2 Unit Play
Play #477 / #478 Detroit / LA Rams (OVER 55) -110 *4:20 EST
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120)
3 Units
Tease #478 LA Rams Down to (PICK) and Tease #476 LA Chargers UP to (+11.5)
Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play: #480 San Francisco -12.5-110 over Tennessee (Sunday, December 14, 2025, 4:25pm ET)Take San Francisco ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday afternoon. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and San Francisco is hands down the superior team at home and I definitely expect them to take care of business against a bad Tennessee team. San Francisco has been playing some very good football especially defensively, holding Cleveland to just 8 points in their last game which was on the road and holding Carolina to just 9 points and their second last game which was at home. We did have Tennessee last week covering against Cleveland but this is a Tennessee team that has usually struggled on the road with some lopsided losses. Tennessee has averaged just 246 yards per game over all the season putting up just 15.5 points per game and now they face a 49ers defense that is dialed in. San Francisco has averaged 341 yards per game this season and this is a Tennessee defense that has struggled allowing 350 yards per game this season including 27.5 points per game. I expect the 49ers to put up a big number here and I don't think Tennessee will get above 10 points. Play San Francisco ATS
5-Unit Play: #463 Buffalo -1-110 over New England (Sunday, December 14, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Buffalo ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Buffalo has played much tougher opponents this season than New England. New England has really had an easy schedule and Buffalo is the better overall team here hands down. The only good team that New England has played would be Buffalo over their last 10 games so this is also a revenge spot for Buffalo. Buffalo has averaged 383 yd per game overall this season and 28.9 points per game. Buffalo also just put up 39 points against a bad Cincinnati defense. Buffalo has stepped up defensively at times this season and I expect them to do that on the road here Sunday. Play Buffalo ATS
5-Unit Play: #465 Baltimore -2.5-110 over Cincinnati (Sunday, December 14, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Baltimore ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Baltimore a lot in this spot as I believe they are this superior team and they actually have a defense. Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and I do expect Baltimore to put up a big number in this game just like Buffalo did against Cincinnati putting up 39 points against them. This is also a revenge spot for Baltimore after losing against Cincinnati back on November 27th. Cincinnati has allowed 410 yards per game overall this season and 31.8 points per game which ranks last defensively in the NFL. Baltimore also comes into this game hungry having dropped two straight games. Play Baltimore ATS
5-Unit Play: #458 Philadelphia -11.5-110 over Las Vegas (Sunday, December 14, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Philadelphia ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Philadelphia in this spot at home. We did have Las Vegas last week and they managed to cover in the final seconds of that game. However, Las Vegas is a bad team overall especially on the road. Philadelphia comes into this game hungry having dropped three straight games and they are hands down the superior team. I also feel like this is an extremely tough spot for Las Vegas after playing their division rival. Las Vegas also comes into this game banged up and they have averaged just 257 yards per game this season along with 15.1 points per game which ranks last offensively in the NFL. Play Philadelphia ATS
5-Unit Play: #475 Carolina -2.5-110 over New Orleans (Sunday, December 14, 2025, 4:25pm ET)
Take Carolina ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Carolina is hands down this superior team here coming off an impressive victory against a very good Rams team. This is also a nice revenge spot for Carolina after losing at home to New Orleans back on November 9th. Carolina also comes into this game well rested. New Orleans has allowed 24.2 points per game overall this season and they have struggled offensively averaging just 15.8 points per game. Play Carolina ATS
5-Unit Play: #481 Minnesota +6-110 over Dallas (Sunday, December 14, 2025, 8:20pm ET)
(LINE AVAILABLE AT BETMGM AND SOUTH POINT)
Take Minnesota ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have Minnesota winning this game outright. I feel like this is a very tough spot for Dallas coming off that loss at Detroit. Meanwhile Minnesota is coming off an impressive victory against Washington holding them scoreless in that game. I definitely expect Minnesota to step up defensively and they have allowed just 299 yards per game overall this season. This is a Dallas defense that has struggled this season allowing 378 yards per game and 29.7 points per game and now they face a Minnesota offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Play Minnesota ATS
6-Unit Play: #483 Miami +3.5-110 over Pittsburgh (Monday, December 15, 2025, 8:15pm ET)
Take Miami ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Miami on the road in this spot. I feel like this is a tough game for Pittsburgh especially coming off that upset victory at Baltimore. Meanwhile Miami has rattled off for straight victories and they are firing on all cylinders that started with a big victory against Buffalo. Miami just put up 34 points against a very good Jets defense and now they face a Pittsburgh defense that has struggled this season allowing 369 yards per game and 23.9 points per game. Miami has been very good against the pass this season allowing just 202 passing yards per game and they have also allowed just 22.8 points per game. Play Miami ATS
Scott Spreitzer
1-Unit Play: Take 455 Cardinals +9.5 over Texans (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)This has the potential of being a letdown spot for the Texans, not just because of the win over Kansas City (tie game with seven minutes to go) but the fact they’ve won 5 in a row and all were close. Houston couldn’t run against KC and the Chiefs were a mess. But that’s the thing with Houston – they don’t have much of a ground game, they’re middle of the pack via the pass but the defense is fantastic. Their style leads to a lot of close games. Arizona was in a horrible spot against the Rams on Sunday and we backed L.A. as a comp play. But Arizona has lost seven games by a grand total of 19 points. The look-ahead was 6.5 – I’m grabbing the generous points with the Cardinals. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
7-Unit Play: Take 468 Chiefs -5.5 over Chargers (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
I’m laying the points with Kansas City. Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert was battered and bruised (again) in their win over Philadelphia and has been hit more than any QB in the NFL this season. The Chargers may be without yet another offensive lineman and remain a MASH unit heading into Sunday. Kansas City is getting healthier up front and CB Trent McDuffie may return also. Patrick Mahomes is off one of his worst performances statistically speaking, although six dropped passes didn’t help. But Mahomes has had some of his best NFL performances after a bad week. As I stated on VSiN last week – Andy Reid is money when he coaches a team with a sub-.500 record (41-25 ATS). And finally, following a win, the Bolts have lost 11 in a row ATS as a divisional road dog of six or less if their host has same season revenge (KC lost to LAC in week-1). I’m laying the points with Kansas City. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
1-Unit Play: Take 477 Lions +6 over Rams (4:25 p.m., Sunday, December 14)
Detroit’s high scoring offense tore up a Dallas defense that had been playing quite well since acquiring Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. Detroit gained 7.3 yards per play. I do believe the Lions have the passing game to give the Rams coverage schemes trouble. The Rams play a lot of split-safety coverage which allows them to divide the field in half. But the Lions have the personnel to handle it – and in a game with plenty of forward thinking offensive play-calling, we have an offense that can get us a back door cover if down late. Having said that, I believe Detroit will be in it to the end. I’m taking the points with the Lions. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 483 Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers (8:20 p.m., Monday, Dec. 15)
All that money spent on defense and the Steelers’ D is a sieve. They can’t stop the run or the pass and rank 28th in total yards allowed per game. Pittsburgh has allowed 466 yards on 91 carries, (5.12 yards per carry), in their last two games. They’ll face a Miami offense that’s gashing opponents and run-blocking as well as anyone in the league. The Dolphins have won four in a row, while averaging 192.3 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry. The defense has allowed just 13 ppg during the winning streak and Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 29th on the ground and 23rd through the air. I’m taking the points with the Dolphins. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play - (451) Atlanta Falcons +5.5 -110 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12/11 | 8:15PM EST) Tampa have lost four of their last five while going 0-5 ATS. The Falcons actually have better numbers when looking at the advanced metrics which is insane to think based on their records. Variance is a bitch. This price is inflated on the home favorites and we plan to take advantage on the opposite side in a big public ticket primetime matchup.4-Unit Play - (455) Arizona Cardinals +9.5 -110 over Houston Texans (12/14 | 1:00PM EST) This is a late addition to our premium selections so we are unable to provide detailed analysis. We apologise for any inconvenience this has caused. GL!
4-Unit Play - (457) Las Vegas Raiders +11.5 -110 over Philadelphia Eagles (12/14 | 1:00PM EST) This is a late addition to our premium selections so we are unable to provide detailed analysis. We apologise for any inconvenience this has caused. GL!
4-Unit Play - (479) Tennessee Titans +12.5 -110 over San Francisco 49ers (12/14 | 4:25PM EST) The Titans are awful, but they've been covering spreads which included our premium win last week vs. the Browns. They've now covered in four of their last five and the fact they rank dead-last in DVOA and yards per play means nothing as that's what the spread is for. It's the great equalizer and right now we're getting incredible pricing on the dogs.
Strike Point Sports
NFL Plays:2-Unit Play. Take #461 Cleveland (+8) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
This is too big a number. Yes, you are getting the Bears, a legit playoff contender, off a loss, but this is also a game sandwiched between two Packers games. The Bears have to end their season with the Browns, the Packers, the 49ers, and the Lions. This is a daunting schedule, and they are absolutely thinking about every game following this contest. Do I think the Bears win outright, of course, but with this Browns defense, and the weather being freezing, I like Cleveland with the points here.
2-Unit Play. Take #466 Cincinnati (+2.5) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take #464 New England (+1) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
I am well aware that the Patriots have had an easy schedule, which has given them the opportunity to amass this 11-2 straight up record. The opponents of the Patriots have roughly a 50-90 straight up record, but you have to beat the teams on your schedule, and they have done that, including winning in Buffalo earlier this year. Nothing about this Bills team worries me. Buffalo is just 3-3 straight up on the road this season, with wins over the Jets, the Panthers, and the Steelers, none of these teams are on the level of the Patriots. Give me the home team here.
2-Unit Play. Take #467 Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) over Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
The Chiefs are in a must win situation, and they are at home, and Patrick Mahomes gets the job done when he is at home…Are all things I’ve heard over and over this season. This is not the same Chiefs team, and I don’t believe they should be laying this kind of number in this spot. This line is all because of the Chiefs history, and their name, not because of their performances on the field. The Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS as a home favorite, which can give you pause, but they are in this must-win situation for a reason, they just aren’t as good as they used to be. Give me the points here.
7-Unit Play. Take #482 Dallas (-5.5) over Minnesota (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 47.5 Minnesota at Dallas (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 14)
JJ McCarthy looked great last weekend versus Washington, and although I don't believe he is really that good, or will have the same game, he should find some success against Dallas here, but this is only in regards to the total. When it comes to the side the Cowboys need a good bounce back game after their loss last weekend and will give a great performance here in front of their home fans. Dallas is 4-2 ATS as a home team and 9-4 versus the total this season. I do believe that CD Lamb suits up, but even if he doesn't I love the Cowboys in this spot. Minnesota is a good defensive team, but even they are 7-6 versus the total this year and 3-2 as an away team. Dallas wins this game 31-20.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
NFL-Sunday December 14th 2025-
7 Unit Play Take #473 Green Bay -2 over Denver (4:25pm est):
I think there's a big difference between the AFC and NFC elite teams. Denver comes in tied with the best record in the NFL but they have faced the 2nd easiest schedule in the league thus far. The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league but I do feel it's overrated while their offense is average at best.
On the other side of things this Green Bay offense and defense is top ten level on both sides of the football. Plus the Packers come out of arguably the best division in the NFL this year and they very easily could be undefeated as each of their three defeats have come by a field goal.
Take Green Bay in this one.
3 Unit Play Take #463 Buffalo -1 over New England (1:00pm est):
Huge game here in the AFC East. Simply put I am not a big believer in this New England team. The Patriots are having a fabulous season overall but keep in mind they have faced by far the easiest schedule in the NFL this season and it's not even close either. Buffalo is a veteran team I feel with more talent and that's played in a lot more big games than New England over the years. The Bills also come into this one ranked ahead of the Patriots in BOTH offensive and defensive DVOA this season.
Play Buffalo.
Monday December 15th 2025-
4 Unit Play Take #483 Miami +3.5 over Pittsburgh (8:15pm est):
The Miami Dolphins are very quietly playing some solid football as they go for their 5th straight win in this game. The Dolphins got off to an ugly start to their season dropping 6 of their first 7 games but have since got healthy and have been a much better team the 2nd half of the season.
Pittsburgh is off a hard fought emotional win over rival Baltimore last week in a game they probably should have lost. The Steelers have been solid as an underdog over the years but they have struggled in this role having to win by margin.
Take Miami plus the points.
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #462 Chicago Bears (-7.5) Over Cleveland Browns. (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 14th)Chicago played potentially the toughest game of football we have seen all year last week against their all-time rivals, the Green Bay Packers. Chicago did not win that game, so we love the spot. Those who did not watch the game only see a 28-21 final in Green Bay’s favor. Chicago now comes into this game 9-4 on the year and is going from top-tier NFL strength of schedule to the bottom of the barrel. This is a perfect demand zone from a market standpoint. Lows have been swept, and orders have been picked up. We believe Chicago surges in this game and destroys this highly talked about Cleveland defense. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense should be able to swarm all over this Cleveland offense after having to deal with a Packers O-line that is far superior. Let’s Bear down here and lay the -7.5, as we believe they roll them and potentially attack Cleveland teaser bets as well!
Griffin Murphy
1 Unit Play - Take #476 NO Saints (+2.5) Over CAR Panthers. (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 14th)
This play coincides slightly with our Top Selection. Public money is going to be on a heavy chase here after getting drilled in the 1:00PM games. The public is going to slam Carolina here for lying under a field goal, despite being 7-6 on the year and officially in playoff contention in the NFC South. We believe the Saints are much better than the public believes, and that’s why the market has them sitting at just +2.5 points in this game. The market is showing respect to the right team here, and we believe the Saints will come out competitive after beating TB last week in a 24-20 final. We see a burst here from the Saints and believe they get it done here and cover our 2.5-point differential.
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #479 TEN Titans (+13) Over SF 49ers. (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 14th)
So, this game kicks off the slate for the 4:25PM games. Going down the card, there is a tremendous amount of fear in the Green Bay Packers vs. Denver game, so we can expect a pretty balanced wager style in that game. Carolina vs. the Saints: The Saints are coming off a win over Tampa Bay, and this team might actually be better than expected, whilst Tampa could be falling off. Again, the public is probably going to edge on Carolina laying just -3, and then we have Detroit vs. the Rams. The public is going to be scared of this game as it’s a bad number at -5.5. Where does this leave us? A game where San Francisco is 9-4 on the year against a team with the worst record in the NFL and laying -12.5 points. This game means everything in the world to the 49ers for playoff contention. Meanwhile, Tennessee is playing for absolutely nothing, as they have already been eliminated. The public is going to be all over San Francisco in this game, and this will definitely be the heaviest bet game on the card as far as splits in betting handles. Nobody is rushing to tease the titans from +13 up to +19. Teasing the 49ers from -13 to -7 sounds like a much more comfortable play. This is the market’s tactic; they create traps and setups to crush public money. We believe we have found the game on the board for the later slate that has shown complete transparency to our methodology. Let’s roll with the Titans. After an outright win over Cleveland last week, we believe this team is going to come out strong after a burst of momentum last week.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
6 Unit – Take #464 BUF Bills ML (-120) over NE Patriots (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 14th)We have a massive AFC East showdown on Sunday as the Buffalo Bills travel to Foxboro to take on the first-place New England Patriots, who enter at 11-2 and riding a dominant 10-game winning streak. The Patriots have been flawless on the road this season, but both of their losses have come at home, and that’s a crack the Bills are looking to exploit. Buffalo is finally building momentum after dropping 39 points in last week’s shootout win over Cincinnati. Josh Allen delivered three touchdowns with zero interceptions, exactly the type of mistake-free football he needs against this Patriots defense. New England ranks sixth in the NFL in total yards allowed, giving up just a touch over 300 per game, but they’ve shown vulnerability against elite quarterbacks. The Bills come in on a two-game winning streak and haven’t forgotten what happened earlier this season when the Patriots went into Buffalo and escaped with a 23–20 win. This spot sets up perfectly for Allen, a former MVP, to deliver a statement performance with the division hanging in the balance. I expect Buffalo’s offense to carry over last week’s rhythm, control the pace, and punch the Patriots in the mouth early. This contest is a revenge opportunity, a momentum game, and a chance for Allen to reestablish himself on the big stage. Take the Bills on the moneyline.
Take #464 BUF Bills ML (-120) over NE Patriots
Nick Menken
4 Unit – Take #455 ARI Cardinals (+10) over HOU Texans (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 14th)
We’ve got the 3–10 Arizona Cardinals heading into Houston to face the red-hot Texans, who enter Sunday on a five-game winning streak. Houston has stacked impressive victories over the Colts, Bills, and Chiefs in the last three weeks, and the backbone of this surge has been their defense. The Texans are allowing just 287 yards per game, the best mark in the entire NFL. Arizona, meanwhile, is coming off an ugly 45–17 home loss to the Rams. But despite their record, the Cardinals have quietly been one of the better road-cover teams in football, cashing in five of their last six away from home. They consistently compete on the road, and this matchup has classic play down to the competition potential for Houston after another emotional win last week. Taking Arizona here isn’t for the faint of heart; backing a 3–10 team against the league’s No. 1 defense doesn’t feel pretty. But that’s exactly why the number is inflated. The Cardinals have enough offensive life to hang around, and this dome environment actually helps their ability to move the ball and put up points. Grab the double digits. Take the Cardinals +10 on the road in Houston.
Take #455 ARI Cardinals (+10) over HOU Texans
Nick Menken
1 Unit – Take #465 BAL Ravens ML (-150) CIN Bengals (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 14th)
3 Unit – Take BAL Ravens vs. CIN Bengals (OVER 51.5 Total Points) (-110) (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 14th)
We get a classic AFC North showdown on Sunday as the Baltimore Ravens take on the Cincinnati Bengals, with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow both on the field and both teams desperate to rebound after tough losses. Baltimore fell 27–22 to the Steelers, while Cincinnati dropped a 39–34 shootout to the Bills. This is Baltimore’s last real shot to steady the season and keep their playoff hopes alive, which is why I’m backing the Ravens on the moneyline for a smaller-unit play. Lamar simply has to be better than he was last week, and this matchup gives him that opportunity against one of the league’s softest defenses. And with Burrow back under center for Cincinnati, this offense is going to push the pace just like they did against Buffalo. Points will come from both sides. Expect a fast, high-scoring game in Cincinnati. Take the Over 51.5 on Sunday.
Take BAL Ravens vs. CIN Bengals (OVER 51.5 Total Points) (-110)
Nick Menken
2 Unit – Take #477 DET Lions ML (+225) over LA Rams (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 14th)
We’re taking a shot with the Lions this week as they head to Los Angeles to take on the Rams, and there’s real value in backing Detroit outright. There’s plenty of history here with Jared Goff returning to L.A., but the bigger angle is how overlooked this Lions team has been while everyone keeps elevating the Rams as NFC contenders. Detroit knows these are the games they must steal if they want any chance at chasing down the NFC North. And with how dominant the Rams have looked lately and a massive divisional matchup with Seattle on deck, this contest is a classic lookahead spot for Los Angeles. The Lions come in at 8–5 and hungry, while the Rams might not match that urgency. This number gives us the right price to take a swing. Give me the Lions on the moneyline.
Take #477 DET Lions ML (+225) over LA Rams
Nick Menken
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