The Ferringo Report: Overreaction Week for NFL Bettors
The sky is falling!
Week 2 is Overreaction Week in the NFL. Yes, it is always good for a chuckle while watching bettors, analysts and media bobbleheads freak out over the extraordinarily limited data set that is one single game. But the result is some of the most volatile, and difficult to read spreads of the pro season. For my money, Week 2 sits just behind Week 17 as the most difficult weeks of the season to handicap.
Don't be deterred. There is plenty of value out there if you know where to look. Some results from last week actually were useful red flags of impending doom (and domination). Others were simple statistical anomalies. The next four months will help prove which was which. In the meantime, we'll just stick to the fundamentals and proceed with caution.
But before we get to our NFL Week 2 wagers, we'll take a moment to revisit the good, the bad and the weird from the NFL's opening weekend. Last week I did a college football-centric Ferringo Report. So this week I'm going to focus on the return of pro football:
- Heading into last week, I was basically screaming to everyone I know to bet as much as they felt comfortable on the Miami Dolphins Season Win Total 'Under' 5.0 or 'Under' 4.5, depending on what number they could get. I said last week that there is a better than 50-50 chance that this team could go 0-16 and that there was no way in hell they would win more than three games. Sure enough, they got pasted 59-10, and reports this week suggest several players on the team desperately want out.
BROWNS BEATEN BLACK AND BLUE
- Wait, does this mean that Cleveland is NOT going to the Super Bowl?
- Last year, just prior to Week 1, I listened to idiot NFL analysts all over the country having serious conversations about whether or not San Francisco was a Super Bowl contender. I feel like I was forced to listen to the exact same group of morons having the exact same discussion this preseason about the Browns. Time is a flat circle, and I can't wait to find out who the Trendy Team will be next year.
- I didn't really know what to make of the Titans coming into this season. They were a physical, seemingly well-coached team that just barely missed out on the playoffs last season. Well, they looked like a physical, well-coached team in their opening beat down of the Browns. Without Andrew Luck to worry about, maybe they will get over the hump this year.
SUNDAYS ARE FOR DRINKING
- I think that the Cleveland Browns made the right decision in deciding to indefinitely ban the fan that dumped beer all over Tennessee cornerback Logan Ryan. It's not as if the guy couldn't easily subvert that 'ban,' though. I mean, what are the Browns going to do, put a Wanted poster with his face on it around the stadium? If he wanted to go to a home game later this season, all he would have to do is have someone else buy the tickets. But hey, at least the Browns organization got some good PR out of it.
- I think that if opposing players don't want beer dumped on them, maybe they shouldn't jump into the stands in hostile road environments.
- Speaking of beer, a tip of the cap to the Carolina Panthers fan that was photographed with 17 empty beer bottles below his seat. That is midseason form!
KARMA POLICE ASSAULT SOME NFL SCUMBAGS
- I don't wish ill will upon others, as it is bad karma. Although I will say that watching accused child and woman abuser Tyreke Hill get hurt was one of the real feel-good moments of Week 1.
- We can reset the "Days Without An Antonio Brown Incident" sign back to zero. What an absolute disaster that guy is. The $38,000 lawsuit from his former chef. The balloon entrance to training camp. The frozen feet. The helmet. The camp walkout. The reverse racism. Now a rape allegation. Good grief.
- Every time Jameis Winston drops back, I get giddy with excitement waiting to see how he is going to screw up next. Anyone that is still wondering if he is a "Franchise Quarterback" has been living in a cave for the past six years.
BAD BEATS FOR TOTALS BETTORS
- There were all kinds of bad beats in Week 1 in the NFL. The Redskins scored a backdoor cover on the last play of the game. And both the Jets and the Cardinals blew big leads against small lines. But one of the worst beats last week had to have been for anyone that had the 'under' in the Houston-New Orleans game. (Posted total: 52.0.) An 'under' wager in that one would've been a bold, against-the-public move. And when New Orleans scored with just 50 seconds left to go up 27-21, it looks golden. But then both teams scored again for a horrible bad beat for those on what should have been the right side of the total.
- One of the strangest final scores was the 31-17 final in the San Francisco-Tampa Bay game. (Posted total: 51.0.) On one hand, if you had the 'over,' you could still be in a rage due to the fact that there were five - FIVE! - touchdowns called back in that game in the first half alone due to penalties. However, on the other hand, there were three - THREE! - interceptions returned for a touchdown in that game. Bizarre.
- Anyone that watched that Rams-Panthers game could just see that Johnny Hekker punt block coming all day. He was the best punter in football last year, and signed a one-year extension just days before L.A.'s Week 1 game. And then he blows a hole in my total play on the 'under' with that moment of stupidity. Unreal.
ODDS AND ENDS
- Arizona wide receiver Christian Kirk held onto quarterback Kyler Murray just a few seconds more than I thought comfortable. The two embraced just as Cardinals cornerback Tremaine Brock dropped a potential game-sealing interception. And I just got a kick out of watching Kirk hold on just those couple extra moments too long. Pretty funny stuff.
- Nothing drives me more insane than coaches screwing up when to go for two-point conversions late in games. This week's culprit: Sean McDermott. Buffalo scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 16-9 with 10:21 left in the game. If they kick the extra point they cut the lead to six points, and another touchdown-extra point wins it. If they had gone for a two-point conversion and missed they still could've scored and had a chance to tie or win. However - and this is the key - if the Jets had been able to just kick a field goal, they would've gone up nine and the Bills would've needed two scores. If Buffalo had gone for two and got it, the score would've been 16-11 and a field goal by the Jets would've still given the Bills a chance to tie the game with another touchdown-two-point conversion. I know: math is hard.
- The 19-point line in the New England-Miami game is the largest spread for a road team since 2007 and one of the largest spreads in NFL betting history. But the line actually opened at 15.0, meaning it has been bet up! How much is too much for this game?
- The recency effect is in full force this week. Prior to the Denver-Oakland game on Monday Night Football, the spread in the Chiefs-Raiders game was +9.0 for the home team, and the spread in the Bears-Broncos game was -1.0. After the Raiders throttled the Broncos, Oakland's spread dropped to +7.5 and Denver's moved to +2.5. Remember: the spread in the Denver-Oakland game had opened at Oakland -2.0 before wildly shifting to +3.0 for the home team after the Antonio Brown debacle. The books got it wrong last time. Why wouldn't that be the case here?
- There is a big revenge game this week. And it is not New Orleans-Los Angeles. That one is going to get all the discussion - and be prepared to see that pass interference non-call replay no fewer than 84 times this week. But that's not the only Revenge Game. Indianapolis heads to Tennessee this week for a big AFC South matchup. Remember that these two teams met in Nashville last year in Week 17, with the winner heading to the playoffs. The Colts, led by Andrew Luck, won 33-17.
- Check back next week for another Ferringo Report!
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past nine years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$4,400). He has also posted 7 of 9 winning seasons (including three straight winning years) and produced an amazing 50 of 76 winning football months over the past 12 years. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a fourth straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
We are offering new clients $60 in free college football picks for Robert's picks or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Get your free college football picks now!
Read more articles by Robert Ferringo
Get all of this Weeks NFL picks
Get all of this Weeks Guaranteed Expert NFL Picks