Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks, Betting Tips 9/13/20
Game: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Date: Sunday, September 13, 2020
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Odds/Point Spread: New England -6.5
Tom Brady may be gone, but Bill Belichick is still giving lessons. And in Week 1, the public should expect to get another recitation from The Master about the fundamentals of football.
The Patriots dynasty is dead. Long live the Patriots dynasty. I don’t care if you liked Patriots or not. What is inarguable is that over the last 20 years, New England has constructed one of the greatest empires in professional sports history. And the Patriots’ nearly 60 percent mark against the spread during that time is one of the most dominant runs in sports betting history.
So this first lesson from Belichick may be about what happens when you doubt him.
The second lesson may be to educate the public on what happens when a team that spends all offseason getting hyped up (Miami) goes on the road early in the year to face a team that spends all offseason getting run down (New England). Those results may not be what you think.
Miami has had an undeniably successful offseason. They’ve been able to accelerate their rebuild and appear to be a franchise pointed in the right direction. However, they are not there yet. And I fully expect the weaknesses on this roster and within this organization to get exposed by the clinical sadism of Belichick.
I think Miami will head to Foxborough with a lot of confidence. Miami has always played the Pats tough, even when New England was at the height of its powers. The Dolphins have split the season series with New England in six of the past seven seasons, and Miami has beaten New England at least once in each of the past three years. That includes a 24-20 win over the Patriots at this very stadium in Week 17 of last season.
However, I also expect New England to take that confidence and cram it down Miami’s throat. When you live or work in the Boston area, it doesn’t take long to develop a chip on your shoulder. And the 2020 Patriots certainly have one. They know Brady – as well as several defensive starters – is long gone. They know that the general public and Media Industrial Complex have been shoveling dirt on their graves all offseason. They know that the tab is coming due on two decades of relentless success. But they will fight and claw to delay their inevitable downfall. No one fights harder than a soldier of a lost cause that knows there is no way out.
We’ve also seen this before from Miami. They are the Howard Johnson’s of the NFL. They had their time. And they have been stuck in perpetual mediocrity for most of the last 25 years. I am intrigued with Miami’s medium-term potential. But when this game kicks off, they are still just a team with 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick playing quarterback behind a shaky offensive line and five new defensive starters.
I think the Patriots are going to come out throwing, because Belichick always does exactly what his opponents don’t expect. And when they have Miami playing off its back foot, New England will start ramming the ball down the Dolphins throats. I think the Patriots will be able to bully Fitzpatrick into some early turnovers, and that should help New England build their lead and their confidence.
That will also help to open up the game. Miami has an underrated stable of skill players. And I do think that they will be able to find some seams in the Patriots defense. The result should be a surprising shootout between these rivals, and I can see both teams scoring in the 20’s. I’ll call this one 31-20 for the Patriots.
Who will win the Dolphins/Patriots NFL game against the spread?
Robert Ferringo’s Pick: Take ‘Over’ 43.5. (Lean on New England -6.5.)
NOTE: Robert made these picks and predictions in May. Things can and will change in the four months between May and September. These May predictions may or may not match his rated Week 1 picks released to his clients on Thursday, Sept. 10.
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