College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/9/2014
Last week was a rare down showing for the Ferringo 15. The teams on our list went just 4-9 against the spread after a blistering 11-4 opening week. That puts our group at 15-13 to begin the 2014 college football betting season.
As I pointed out in my initial offering, the first month of the season is by the most difficult for our profit-power rankings because it is impossible to real know what you're going to get out of teams - and subsequently what people expect out of them - until you see them play a couple games. But I expect a big bounce back this week and more success going forward.
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The Ferringo 15's record over the last three years is now 166-114 against the spread. That is a documented 59.3 percent system for 280 plays and an outstanding stand-alone betting system.
Last week our KING College Betting System won its only play, hitting an easy winner with Virginia Tech winning outright. That moves the KING System ahead to a perfect 3-0 on the season, and over the past three years that record stands at 87-58, an equally fantastic 60 percent mark.
For the uninitiated, the Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived "value" of the teams on the list.
Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public's expectations for them change.
Here is this week's Ferringo 15 College Football Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. California (2-0) - If California's weak 27-point spread against Sacramento State had been available on Thursday it would've been my largest release of the week - even bigger than my 7-Unit winner on Oregon. This Golden Bears team is legit. They will score a ton in Tony Franklin's system, and I think they will be a pesky underdog all season long. They have a week off before a trip to Arizona, where they lost by just five points last season, and I think that Cal is gaining a lot of confidence from some moderate early-season success.
2. Rutgers (1-1 Against The Spread) - The Scarlet Knights were in a hangover spot last week. They earned a big nonconference upset over Washington State in Seattle to open the season and then had to somehow get up for Howard last week. Rutgers actually led 31-7 at halftime and could've picked their score. But they clearly eased off in the second half in anticipation of this week's huge Big Ten home opener against Penn State. Rutgers is just 7-15 ATS in its last 22 September games and hasn't been a strong home play. But they are an underdog this week with around 75 percent of the action coming in on the Nittany Lions, so there is still plenty of value with this group.
3. Utah (2-0) - I had a hard time deciding which Mormon team to put in the Ferringo 15 this week. BYU could easily make a claim after their 2-0 ATS start and dominating effort against Texas. However, that win over the Longhorns earned BYU a spot in the AP Top 25, so I don't know that they are underrated any more. Utah's blowout of Fresno State was thorough. And now this team has two weeks to prepare for a trip to The Big House to face Michigan next weekend. I suspect the Utes will be around a 12-point underdog against the struggling Wolverines.
4. Memphis (2-0) - Last week the Tigers put a massive scare into UCLA, tying the game 35-35 in the fourth quarter with a pick-six and putting the Bruins up against the wall. Even though the Tigers eventually lost 42-35, I think that tight game with UCLA will give Memphis a ton of confidence moving forward, and they will be a team to reckon with in the AAC this fall. The Tigers are on a bye this week before hosting Middle Tennessee next Saturday.
5. Maryland (1-1) - It was an obvious flat spot for the Terps last weekend in South Florida, and they were lucky to escape with an outright win. Maryland never threatened the spread against South Florida and fell to 0-5 ATS in the game following a straight up win. The Terps host West Virginia this week in a regional rivalry game. The Mountaineers have a lot of motivation in this one after Maryland embarrassed them 37-0 in College Park last season. That win snapped a seven-game Terps losing streak in the series, and WVU is 6-2 ATS in the last eightmeetings.
6. Akron (1-1) - I'm going to hold firm on Akron even though they did not cover the number in Happy Valley last weekend. They really should've covered the spread in that game. Akron failed to score a single point despite having its two fourth quarter possessions end at the Penn State 38 and the Penn State 13. Akron has a week off to regroup before a very talented Marshall offense comes to town on Sept. 20.
7. Georgia (1-0) - I was surprised to see the Bulldogs open as a six-point road favorite over South Carolina this weekend. The chalk has held up in four straight in this series, including Georgia's 41-30 win between the hedges last September. That said, the Bulldogs are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings and just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the 'Cocks. This game is critical in the SEC East standings. The Bulldogs have the advantage of a bye week to prepare, but South Carolina still enjoys a strong home-field edge here.
8. Texas-San Antonio (2-0) - The end of UTSA's game against Arizona last week was almost a heartbreaker for Roadrunner backers. UTSA fumbled on the last play of the game, and the Wildcats returned the recovery for a TD that would've covered the spread. However, an illegal forward pass call negated that touchdown and locked up the cash for the home underdog. UTSA is on the road at Oklahoma State this week. The Cowboys could be without starting quarterback J.W. Walsh. Regardless, I expect the spread to be somewhere around -17.
9. Mississippi State (1-1) - UAB actually outgained Mississippi State last week despite losing 47-34. That game was just 26-20 at the half before the Bulldogs put it away with a 21-7 third quarter. Mississippi State is a significant 20-point favorite this week against a South Alabama team that is 4-0 ATS in its last four and 7-3 ATS in its last 10. This is a revenge game for a 30-10 Mississippi State win over the Jaguars in 2012. But Mississippi State could get caught looking ahead to a huge road game at LSU next weekend.
10. Georgia Southern (2-0) - Georgia Southern took out its frustration from that 24-23 loss at N.C. State on poor Savannah State last week, winning 83-9. Southern will now square off against Georgia Tech, pitting two option teams against one another. The Eagles have now covered six straight spreads, and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Tech pulled away in an emotional win at Tulane last Saturday. But they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, and we'll see how motivated they are against a small in-state school.
11. Louisville (2-0) - Bobby Petrino may be a scumbag, but the guy can cover a number. There was no letdown for the Cardinals after their blowout win over Miami as the Cardinals hung 66 points on Murray State last week. Louisville has to play four of its next five on the road. But they will likely be favored in their next four games leading into a trip to Clemson on Oct. 11.
12. Air Force (1-1) - The Falcons have to shrug off a tough road loss at Wyoming last week in a game where they yielded the winning score with just 58 seconds remaining. They will face a Georgia State team that has won just once in its last 18 games, and GSU is coming off its own heartbreaker, allowing a touchdown with just 15 seconds to play versus New Mexico State last weekend. Air Force is a surprisingly strong 10.5-point favorite in this week's matchup. And this game will be decided by which team can rebound, mentally, more quickly.
13. Louisiana-Lafayette (1-1) - Lafayette's 28-point loss as a 16-point home favorite was one of the most surprising results from last weekend. But now the Cajuns need to quickly bounce back as they head to Ole Miss as a 27-point underdog. Lafayette is 12-3 ATS against a team that's above .500 and is 18-6 ATS following a straight up loss. They are facing an Ole Miss team that is 20-6 ATS against nonconference opponents and 5-2 ATS against the Sun Belt.
14. Pittsburgh (2-0) - The Panthers dominated Boston College more than the 30-20 final suggests. Pitt has outscored its first two opponents 92-20. We'll see if they can lay the wood down at Florida International this weekend as a nearly four-touchdown favorite. FIU is 1-1 against a pair of FCS schools and is off a 34-3 win over Wagner. Pitt has gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight games, and they need to be careful not to look past FIU this weekend with a bigger game against Iowa on tap the following week.
15. Syracuse (0-1) - I'm going to give the Orange one more chance. They had a bye week to get the kinks worked out after their closer-than-it-should've-been win over Villanova in the opener. Syracuse is a soft seven-point road favorite at Central Michigan this week. But the majority of the wagers - nearly 60 percent - are coming in on the home underdog. We'll see if they are backing the right horse. Terrell Hunt will be playing for the Orange after being ejected from the first game for throwing a punch.
Honorable Mention: Kentucky, New Mexico State, Arkansas State, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, Kentucky, USC, San Diego State, BYU, Notre Dame, UTEP, Florida International, West Virginia.
Robert Ferringo was the top football handicapper in the country last year, earning nearly $8,000 in total football profit in 2014-14 and posting one of the best seasons in America. He hit 62.1 percent for the entire NFL season (95-58) and was amazing down the stretch, closing with 11 of 14 winning NFL weeks and 12 of 15 overall winning football weeks. Robert has posted 3 of 4 winning football seasons, 6 of 7 winning NFL seasons, 30 of 44 winning football months, and 6 of 7 winning NFL preseasons. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System posted another winning season (now 2-for-2) and is 87-58 over the last two years (60 percent).
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