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New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 11/18/2021 NFL Picks, Best Bets and Tips Week 11

by Tony Sink - 11/16/2021

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Game: New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Thursday, November 18, 2021

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX/NFLN

Odds/Point Spread: Falcons (+7)

Total/Over-Under: 48

The New England Patriots (6-4) are headed to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Thursday where they will try to defeat the Atlanta Falcons (4-5). Atlanta opens as 7-point dogs from oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 48.

The New England Patriots head into this game 6-4 for this season. In their last contest, the Patriots stepped onto the field against the Browns and went home with a win by a final score of 45-7. Mac Jones finished 19/23 with 198 yds passing and 3 TDs. He had a QB rating of 142.1 and walked away from the contest with no picks. Kendrick Bourne had an average of 24.5 yards per reception by accounting for 98 yards on 4 receptions. Rhamondre Stevenson was the rushing leader for the Patriots with 20 totes for 100 yds (5.0 yds per attempt). On the day, they had 62 plays which converted into 452 yds. The New England Patriots ended up rushing 34 times and tallied 184 yds, which is an average of 5.4 yds per carry. In the running game, the Patriots conceded 99 yards on 20 attempts, which is 5.0 yds per rush allowed. New England conceded 19 completions on 33 attempts for 118 yards, and a completion percentage of 57.6%.

Concerning scoring, the New England Patriots are averaging 27.5 points per outing. Offensively they hold an average of 114.5 yards rushing which is 16th in the league. The Patriots have attained 3,562 total yards for the year. New England has compiled 119 1st downs as a team, and they have been called for 58 penalties for 525 yds. They have given the ball to the opposition 14 times (7 interceptions and 7 fumbles). When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, New England has amassed 15 passing touchdowns and 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Patriots are ranked 2nd in the NFL in relation to their opponents scoring, conceding 17.7 PPG. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 107.9 rushing yards per game for the season. For the season, they have allowed 1,079 yards on the ground through 10 outings. Concerning passing yardage, the Patriots have given up 2,201 yards which puts them in 13th in football. They have yielded 220.1 yards per game through the air and allowed a completion percentage of 59.4%. During this campaign, they have relinquished 328.0 yards per outing which ranks them 6th in the league. They have surrendered 13 touchdowns by air in addition to 5 touchdowns via the ground game.

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The Falcons step onto the field holding a record of 4-5 for this year. When they last stepped on the field, the Falcons walked away with a loss by a score of 43-3 when they played the Cowboys. Josh Rosen ended the game with 14 yards on 1/6 through the air while his QB rate was 0. He threw 1 interception and his Y/A was 2.33 yds. Wayne Gallman carried the rock 15 times for 55 yards, walking away from the game with 3.7 yards per attempt for Atlanta. Kyle Pitts was one of the featured targets for the Falcons, catching 4 throws for 60 yards (15.0 yards per catch). Atlanta rushed for 4.3 yards per carry, finishing with 103 yds on 24 attempts. The Falcons finished with a total of 214 yds and they ran 53 plays (4.0 yards per play). The Falcons pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 80.0%, relinquishing 317 yds on 28 for 35 through the air. Atlanta surrendered 37 running attempts for 114 yards (3.1 yards per rush).

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Regarding their scoring prowess, the Falcons are sitting 25th out of all teams in football by scoring 19.8 points per game. For the season so far, the Falcons currently have a total of 2,172 passing yards as well as holding an average of 241.3 throwing yards per game, which has them ranked 15th in the NFL. They have an average of 82.9 yards per game on the ground and have rushed for 746 yards overall. The Atlanta Falcons have an average of 324.2 yards per contest ranking them 25th out of all teams in the NFL. The Atlanta offense has 439 yards of penalties on 51 violations, which is 27th in football in terms of making mistakes. They have thrown 9 picks while allowing opponents to recover 4 fumbles and they have been able to earn 117 1st downs.

The Falcons are conceding 29.2 PPG, which has them ranked 31st of all teams in the NFL. Atlanta has allowed a total of 1,099 yards via the ground game (122.1 yards per game) as well as 10 touchdowns via the rush for the season. They have given up 19 touchdowns via the pass as well as 246.2 yards/game, which puts them in 17th in the NFL. The Falcons defense taken the field for 588 plays, which has them sitting 16th in the league. Over the course of the season, they have conceded 263 points in total. Their defense has tallied 8 turnovers (5 fumbles recovered and 3 interceptions) this season.

Who will win tonight's Patriots/Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Patriots -7

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