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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Chris Vasile - 11/29/2021

NFL predictions Tyreek Hill Kansas City Chiefs Week 13 opening line report and picks

As we enter Week 13 of the National Football League season, we are now two-thirds done the regular season. And to say it has gone by quickly would be an understatement. We’ve seen everything from blowouts to blown leads, season-ending injuries, poor officiating and questionable calls to unbelievable plays on both offense and defense. The race for the playoffs is officially in full swing, and the Super Bowl futures are as murky as ever. I’m excited for what’s in store for the last six weeks of the season, so let’s jump right into breaking down a few Week 13 games.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, 50.5

This game right here is one of the more intriguing games of Week 13. On one side you have the Los Angeles Chargers, who at times look every bit the part of Super Bowl contenders. They have a really good defense and an offensive that features several talented players, including a really good second-year quarterback in Justin Herbert. However, the Chargers still find ways to lose games they should be winning. They are -20 on the season in point differential and now have fallen out of first place in the AFC West, one game back of the surging Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers desperately need to win this game so that they don’t fall too far behind the division (and wild card) chase. As for the Bengals, they looked awful in Weeks 8 and 9 but have bounced back nicely with two dominant wins against the Raiders and Steelers. The Bengals, much like the Chargers, have a ton of talent offensively, but the defense sometimes leaves much to be desired. We’ve seen the Chargers play well traveling East with wins in Philadelphia, Washington, and Kansas City, so they are definitely a bounce-back candidate in this one. I trust their defense more than I do the Bengals.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions +7, 48

I don’t believe the Lions could play or be any worse than they have shown through 12 weeks. They were dismal on offense on Thanksgiving against the Bears, but this could be a very good spot for them to figure it out and perhaps get a win, or at the very least a cover. Look, Minnesota went to San Francisco and lost a very winnable game thanks to turnovers. They also lost Dalvin Cook via injury, and we are still uncertain about his status for this game. How do the Vikings show up for this game in Detroit when they needed to have last week’s game in a major way? I say they no-show and I say the Lions stay inside the number in this one. Remember, sometimes we bet numbers and not teams.

Pick: Detroit +7

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs -9.5, 49.5

Speaking of betting numbers and not teams, I think this number is about three points too low for this contest. The Broncos sit just at 6-5 on the season and have won three of their last five games. They do have a +32 point differential, but they do very little well offensively. They’ve been held in ball games by their defense. And while they have a top-10 defense in most major defensive categories, I think they are running into a buzzsaw right now. The Chiefs are surging and are starting to look like the Super Bowl contenders we expected them to be. They’ve won four straight and have taken over first place in the AFC West. They are putting up a ton of yards and are scoring nearly 26 points per contest. Based on this line, and if we take away three points for home field, the Chiefs are only seven points better than the Broncos? I don’t think so. Especially not in primetime on Sunday Night Football. It should also be noted that the Chiefs are rested off a bye and Andy Reid’s record ATS off a bye week is absurdly good. Lay the points with the Chiefs in this contest.

Pick: Kansas City -9.5

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills -3, 45.5

If you look at the schedule about six weeks ago and saw this game, you would have thought the Bills would be a 10-point favorite and on their way to wrapping up their second straight AFC East title. Fast forward to today, and the Patriots are one of the hottest teams in the league having won six straight and they now occupy first place in division. The Pats have been not only winning games but blowing teams out as their closest margin of victory was three points, whereas the other five wins had an average margin of victory of 29 points. The defense has given up six, seven, zero and 13 points over the last four games, respectively, and they are right there with the Bills in all major defensive categories. They have plenty of momentum coming into this contest, but will that be enough to fend off a very high-powered Bills’ offense? The Bills come into this game with an extra couple of days to prep for the Pats as we last saw them beating the Saints on Thanksgiving Thursday. The Bills have alternated wins and losses over the last seven games, with both the offense and defense sputtering at times. This game is going to play a huge role in who wins the division, that is until the two teams meet again in Foxboro on December 26. I’ll side with the home team in this one… but only just.

Pick: Buffalo -3

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