Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 12: Basic Strategy Teasers
You’re reading this article, so I don’t have to tell you that betting on the NFL can be one of the most frustrating parts of your week. For many folks, it’s much more of a challenge than they found all week at their jobs.
Point spreads are dialed in all week by the sportsbooks until they are at their most efficient just before kickoff. This is when the vast majority of sports bettors are getting to the proverbial window.
Then, if you're playing the spread or total, you're more often than not already too late to the party. If only there were a way for you to get a buffer on a point spread.
There is a way! It’s called a teaser.
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What is a Teaser?
A teaser is a parlay that allows the bettor to give themselves extra points on the spread or the total of a game. Like any other parlay, the minimum number of legs is two.
Your next question is probably how many points you can add to the spread or total?
The possibilities can quickly become overwhelming and, in my opinion, simply too tempting.
A basic strategy is needed.
What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?
The basic strategy is to tease not just to, but through, the key numbers 3 and 7 with a 6-point 2-leg teaser. What does all that mean, and how do we do it?
A key number in this sense is the league's most common margin of victory, which is 3. The second most common point differential you will see in the NFL is 7, with 6 as the third most likely.
To do this, we look for underdogs with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and tease them up through the key numbers to betting favorites over a touchdown at (+7.5) to (+8.5).
Let's say we have one leg that is a dog, but now come across a betting favorite we can tease down under a field goal from (-7.5) to (-8.5) to (-1.5) to (-2.5).
We have a few underdogs this week and one betting favorite for our potential Week 12 teaser games. I’ll guide you through the process of picking an NFL basic strategy teaser.
Potential Week 12 NFL Teaser Games
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (-2.5) Total: 45
While I do think we’ll see some regression from the Chicago Bears soon, I can’t get behind the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. Aaron Rodgers may play, and even if he does, falling on that wrist at 40+ is a probability.
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) Total: 50.5
Typically, we like to look for games with low point totals so that our 6 points count for a higher percentage and are thus worth more.
That said, Ja’Marr Chase has been suspended for spitting in the face of Jalen Ramsey. Then, he goes and lies about it, too. That’s not a great look from the best player on the field.
The Bengals can probably still score, but they won’t be able to keep up with the Drake Maye show.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) Total: 47.5
The Steelers were road underdogs, but here we have home dogs with the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are not a team I want to back right now. They are inconsistent, and so are the Jaguars.
One team that’s hard to nail down is enough trouble.
Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) Total: 39.5
Lastly, we get a chance to tease Atlanta up to (+7.5) against the Saints. The Falcons have lost five straight, and with New Orleans playing better than they have all season, I don’t know if I want to get in the way of that.
What I do love here, though, is the low point total of 39.5. For us to lose this teaser leg, Atlanta would have to fall short by 8 points or more. Are the Saints going to win this one 24-16?
Well, Kirk Cousins is getting the start for the Falcons here. He didn’t have the best game in his first showing, and I don’t think the old pro lets that happen again.
Week 12 NFL Basic Strategy Teaser Pick
Pick: New England Patriots (-1.5) and Atlanta Falcons (+7.5)
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