NFL Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/4/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 10 opening line report Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

Finishing an NFL season in the green against the spread is no easy task, and securing the best price possible is crucial for that kind of sustained success. The closing spreads are very sharp in the NFL, but opening lines can hold value in certain instances. Securing an extra point in your favor can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we went 2-1 on our picks, with all three plays closing at a worse price than what we secured. The Bears and 49ers both won and covered our -2.5 point spread, before closing at -3 in both instances. Our lone loss came Sunday night, when we lost our Washington Commanders +3.5 pick (it closed at +2.5). Before we get into the Week 10 picks, here are the biggest storylines of Week 9 from around the league.

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The Ravens are back: Not only did Baltimore take care of business against the Dolphins, but their dominant victory has them poised for a strong second half of the season. Their defense stepped up, Lamar Jackson looked healthy, and the Ravens are once again AFC contenders.
JJ McCarthy show in Minnesota: The Vikings pulled off a huge 27-24 upset over the Detroit Lions to keep their NFC North hopes alive. McCarthy played calm football in the pocket, and Minnesota leaned on its run game as the Vikings snapped their two-game skid.
Colts lose, but don’t panic: The fact that the Indianapolis Colts only lost by a touchdown after turning the ball over six times speaks volumes to how good they really are. It was a bad day at the office for Daniel Jones, but the 7-2 Colts are still one of the best teams in the league.
Bears-Bengals was bonkers: The Cincinnati Bengals defense will stop them from making the playoffs, but it won’t stop them from putting on entertaining affairs this season. A week after giving the Jets their first win of the season by a 39-38 scoreline, the Bengals scored 42 points and still lost again. Two Bengals touchdowns in the final two minutes were erased by a 58-yard Colston Loveland score with 17 seconds left. Joe Flacco threw for 470 passing yards, but their defense couldn’t get the stop they needed.
Any given week… Green Bay has wins over the Steelers, Lions, Commanders, and Cardinals this season, with losses to the Panthers and Browns. The Packers' offense has been incredibly inconsistent, as they fell to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites last week. Green Bay’s run defense fell asleep while Love was ineffective in the second half.
Bills win again: Josh Allen has five straight regular-season wins over Patrick Mahomes, but is still 0-4 against the Chiefs in the playoffs. A comfortable home win over Kansas City keeps them in the race for the #1 seed, but it will all come down to the postseason in upstate New York.
Down goes Daniels: Nine months ago, the Washington Commanders were in the NFC championship game for the first time in 33 years. Flash forward to today, and their franchise quarterback is out indefinitely, their defense has fallen apart, and they are 3-6 with the Lions coming up next week. Things could not have gone worse for the Commanders, as the fan base quickly learned a rebuild won’t happen overnight.

The first half of the NFL season is officially over. It has been an eventful and impactful first half, and it is still all to play for as the league enters Week 10. Make sure you lock in these picks as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee these lines and odds will be available at kickoff.

Game 1: New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Chicago Bears (-3.5)
The Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into Week 10. They are still being treated like a bottom-half team with soft spreads like these, but they absolutely deserve to be a much bigger favorite against a team like the Giants. They may have needed a late miracle against the Bengals to secure the win, but it’s important to remember they were up by two touchdowns and had the ball with less than 4 minutes to play. Joe Flacco's heroics and an onside kick kept it close, but the Bears were comfortably in control for most of that contest. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s connection on offense has completely transformed this unit, and the Bears are still in the middle of a very tight NFC North battle. Meanwhile, the Giants are free-falling and have no light at the end of the tunnel. Their defense hasn’t lived up to expectations, Cam Skatebbo is still hurt, and the 2-7 Giants are already planning for next season. The Bears are at home, they are a legitimate playoff contender, and I would personally have this spread closer to a touchdown than a field goal. The Bears have a truly legitimate offense that New York won’t be able to keep up with. Not only is this the most confident pick of the week, but this could be the most confident pick of the season so far.

Pick: Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Game 2: Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-4)

The Ravens got back on track against the Dolphins last week, but what really stood out was their defensive play. Miami was a force at home, scoring 27+ points in nine straight home games going into Thursday night. A struggling Ravens defense kept them out of the endzone, setting them up nicely for this matchup. The return of Lamar Jackson stole the headlines, and while the MVP candidate played great football, the Ravens will only go as far as their defense will take them. Extra rest for this matchup tilts the scales in favor of Baltimore, as the Vikings are coming off a very tough Week 9 matchup against the Lions. A battered Vikings defense has struggled against the run this season, and slowing down Derrick Henry is no easy task. The Vikings are 20th in the league in rushing yards allowed, while the Ravens are inside the top five in most of the major rushing metrics. Henry and Jackson keep defenses guessing, and even Brian Flores will struggle to slow down a motivated Ravens side. Minnesota has looked good under JJ McCarthy, but the young quarterback is still working through growing pains early in his NFL career. Unless the Vikings defense can put on a truly dominant show, which I don’t see happening against a rested Baltimore side, the Ravens will win this one by at least a touchdown.

Game 3: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Opening Line: Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

We saw both of these teams in primetime last week, picking up a pair of respectable victories over NFC East opposition. While the Seahawks certainly deserve to be the favorites here, this spread is a few points too wide. Arizona continues to be overlooked despite playing strong football on both sides of the ball. They are 3-5 on the season, but they have a +9 point differential and could easily be 5-3 if a few bounces went their way. Special teams have cost them points, and the reality is they have a strong run game, Jacoby Brissett has been consistent, and their defense steps up when they need to. The Seahawks are very overvalued right now after demolishing the Commanders, but a struggling Washington defense made the Seahawks look better than they are. Arizona is gaining momentum, but still hasn’t quite gotten the respect it deserves on a weekly basis. This will be their real coming-out party, as I am calling for an outright Cardinals upset to shake up the NFC West.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)

Season Record: 12-15

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Start:	November 4, 2025 @ 7:30 PM
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

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