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Super Bowl Longshots: Predictions for Teams with Betting Value for Futures

by Spencer Toth - 11/27/2025

Super Bowl longshots Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys

The NFL season is 66% complete, and some teams have emerged as Super Bowl favorites with the big game just 73 days away. The race for the Lombardi Trophy is as wide open as ever, with 11 teams coming in with +1400 odds or shorter. While there is certainly value in some of the favorites, it is also the perfect time to lock in some long-shot bets. Once the playoff field is set, we won’t be able to get prices like these, and even a few dollars can pay out a huge reward in February. Don’t go taking out a second mortgage for these picks, but if even one of these four teams can make a deep playoff run, you will be laughing. Here are the four Super Bowl sleepers you must lock in immediately as we head into Week 13.

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San Francisco 49ers +3000

The 49ers were one of the Super Bowl favorites in each of the last three seasons, and it is a bit inspiring to see them all the way at +3000 in a wide-open NFC. They do have to worry about the Seahawks and Rams both in the NFC West with them, which makes a divisional crown a tough aspiration, but their 8-4 record still has them in a great position to sneak into the Wild Card. Once there, anything can happen, and this +3000 price may not be available for long. 

The 49ers had to navigate early-season injuries, but they are an unstoppable force when healthy. Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey have a 23-8 record when all three are on the field together, and there appear to be no injury concerns for the trio at this stage of the season. The 49ers have several playmakers on offense that don’t take much from Purdy to create big plays down the field, as they are so dangerous in the open field. A strong offensive line often gives Purdy time to go through his reads, and as long as they don’t get bit by the injury bug again in the playoffs, they are a real threat in the NFC to go all the way. 

San Francisco has the Browns and Titans on deck in the next two weeks, and they still have their bye week in Week 14 to look forward to. When they are sitting at 10-4 with three weeks to go, San Francisco will not have +3000 odds attached to their Super Bowl victory. This is a well-built team on both sides of the ball, and there is no reason they should have three times longer odds than teams like the Lions or Packers. 

Houston Texans +4000

The AFC is littered with contenders, but the Houston Texans are a team looking to add their name in the mix. Houston started the year 0-3 and found themselves wondering what went wrong, but a lethal defense changed everything. Houston has the best defense in the league, with only 287 total yards allowed per game. Nothing comes easy against the Texans, and that fact alone will keep them in football games down the stretch. They have allowed the second-fewest points this season, and have been especially consistent at slowing down the passing game. The AFC is full of contenders with MVP-caliber quarterbacks, and the Texans have already shown they can slow down anyone. They sacked Josh Allen eight times in prime time two weeks ago and have won three straight games thanks to consistent play on defense. 

Offense is a concern for the Texans, but it is important to remember that CJ Stroud is still a serviceable quarterback. The fact that Davis Mills has led this team to a three-game win streak with Stroud in concussion protocol is just a testament to how good the Texans' defense really is. Mills is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but he has been able to get the ball out early to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz in the open field. Once Stroud comes back, which is imminent, the Texans will be able to play complementary football again on the back of a consistent offense and terrifying defense. The 6-5 Texans aren’t guaranteed to make the playoffs with a pair of games against the Colts, and a game against the Chiefs still left, but even one upset in that trio should be enough to book their spot in the postseason. Anytime you are getting +4000 odds on the best defense in the league, you shouldn’t need to be convinced that it is a worthwhile investment. 

Chicago Bears +5000

This is the best Super Bowl bet you can make. End of sentence. Chicago is currently leading their division; they have won eight of their last nine games, and it is shocking to see them with +5000 Super Bowl odds. I have been laying money on the Bears gradually over the last few weeks, and can’t believe they still have sky-high odds despite their recent win streak. Six of the eight division leaders have +1400 odds or shorter, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming in at +3300. Is Chicago the best team in the league? Probably not. But they control their own playoff destiny, they are scorching hot, they are leading one of the toughest divisions in football, and still have +5000 odds. 

On the field, Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are a match made in heaven. Williams’ productive rookie year was overshadowed by Jayden Daniels’ heroics, but Williams was always going to be more of a developmental project for the Bears. His talent is certainly there, and he just needed a guiding hand to allow him to flourish. Johnson is one of the best offensive minds in the league, and he has been able to nourish Williams’ growth without stunting his potential. Williams has been able to deliver the clutch plays the Bears have been craving over the last decade, and a strong run game will go a long way in the postseason. The Bears have the second-most rushing yards in the league, as De’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have been an excellent backfield duo. It hasn’t always been pretty for Chicago, but this team is finally making the plays they need to make late in the fourth quarter. Six of their last seven wins have come by less than a touchdown, but that frankly doesn’t matter as long as the Bears keep finding ways to win. You shouldn’t need a long list of reasons to take a stab at +5000, and the Bears are the best Super Bowl bet to make heading into Week 13. 

Dallas Cowboys +10000

The Cowboys have serious issues on the defensive side of the ball, but at +10000, we can overlook them. Their offense is capable of winning four straight playoff games, making them worth a sprinkle at 100-1 odds. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens could be the best wide receiver duo in the league, and Dak Prescott doesn’t need a second invitation to chuck the ball downfield. Their 267 passing yards per game are far and away the most in the league, as the Cowboys can put up points in a hurry. The fact they haven’t gone on to win games where they scored 40, 27, and 24 points should tell you what you need to know about their defense, but that shouldn’t deter a Super Bowl bet at these kinds of odds. Anything is possible with an offense like this one, and a few wins could have the Cowboys back in the Wild Card positions. They close out the season with a pair of very winnable games against the tanking Commanders and Giants, and these odds will be slashed in a hurry if they can pull off an upset or two in the coming weeks. 

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