Thursday Night Football Picks: San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

by Mike Allen - 9/30/2025

It has been a September to remember for NFL fans. I'm not saying it's been all good memories. Some of the bad beats we've seen have been absolutely gut-wrenching, yes, but games have been exciting and probably more fun (until they aren't) than in season’s past.

It all started with the rule change on the kickoff. A year ago, we were all looking down at our phones during kickoff. That’s not true anymore.

Just think about a team like the Dallas Cowboys, who have both an electric returner in KaVontae Turpin and probably the best kicker in the NFL, Brandon Aubrey. If you kick to Turpin and he rips one back to the 40 like we saw against the Packers, you need one or two 1st downs to get into Aubrey's range.

I got burned on Sunday night. It'll be a while before I can bet against Dallas, given their dominance in special teams.

Conversely, special teams has been a complete and utter disaster, and it's only Week 5 for the San Francisco 49ers. They started the year with Jake Moody as the kicker, but after missing a 26-yarder and having a 37-yard attempt blocked in Week 1, he's been replaced by Eddy Pineiro. In his first game, Pineiro missed an extra point. He's been solid the last two weeks, but neither the team nor the market can be too confident in the 49ers' kicking game.

Unfortunately, this game is on a short week, as some juicy beef is brewing between the two coaching staffs after 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Salah called out the entire Sean McVay coaching tree for allegedly stealing signs. He noted that what they do is legal. However, they're the best at it, he says, and he has a hard time keeping up.

Salah isn't the type for pre-loaded excuses, though, and he said it in reference to Liam Coen, head coach of the Jaguars. Either way, it makes this division matchup for first place in the AFC West even more interesting.

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San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)

Let's talk about this betting line. It opened up at 3, and as you might imagine, the impressive Rams were bet up to (-3.5) fairly quickly. That's when the word got out that 49ers starting quarterback Brock Purdy would not be playing on the short week. The line jumped two full points ot where it is now at (-5.5).

The Niners' beat writers are pretty upset that they didn't sit him against the Jags so that he would be ready for the more critical opponent. It is what it is, though.

Purdy isn't the only injury, though, by far for the Niners. Nick Bosa, of course, is out for the season. Neither Jordan Watkins, Jauan Jennings, nor Ricky Pearsall practiced on Monday and are currently listed as questionable. That's three wide receivers!

That's a lot for the Niners to overcome if they're out or they give it a go and their performances are limited. I say this because the team ranks 31st in the NFL in yards/rush, and yes, that's with a "healthy" Christian McCaffrey.

Point Total: 47

I would lean toward the under. This is almost a mismatch with the 49er injuries on the short week. LA could jump out to a two-score lead and never look back. This would bode well for under.

Moneyline Odds

49ers: +200

Rams: -245

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Betting Analysis

Some argue that 49ers backup QB Mac Jones has played well and the team is 3-1. Outside of the season opener win in Seattle, it's been a pretty lame 3-1, if you ask me. Even the Seahawks game is nothing to brag about. Seattle lost two fumbles in the 4th quarter in order for the Niners to win.

The following week, the Saints had a chance to beat them but punted with 1:33 left on the clock, ultimately losing by 5 points after missing a field goal and losing a fumble. Then, they come home and squeak one out against the Cardinals. Arizona missed a field goal in that game, which would have been the difference.

The return of Salah has been a good story for the defense, but outside of that, I am not impressed at all by the Niners. How do you have the best running back in the league and you're averaging nearly a league-worst per carry?

Add in the injuries, and this is a mismatch. I know I haven't spoken about them much, but the LA Rams are really good. Jared Verse is a better talent than Micah Parsons and a better run-stopper. As you know, he only kicks off the cascade of Rams defenders furiously flowing to the ball.

I'm not attacking any bets on the Rams in the first half. On the defensive side, it's the depth that I worry about the most with the Niners. They are very thin, and unless the offense can dominate the time of possession, the defense will tire.

The books reacted strongly to the two-point swing because they know the writing is on the wall.

I like the Rams' side, but the spread is too much for a team that doesn't have a home-field advantage.

With the point spread already moved a bit far, let’s take the Niners under their team total of 20.5 points. If the narrative plays out, though, it’ll be the Rams with the lead late. It’s hard to believe Jones will outplay Stafford.

Instead of garbage time touchdowns, I see Jones getting disrupted, discombobulated, and potentially dismembered by the end of it.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Betting Pick

Pick: 49ers Team Total Under 20.5 Points

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Thursday Night Football Picks: San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

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