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2026 Las Vegas Raiders Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/25/2026

Las Vegas Raiders predictions Ashton Jeanty

The Las Vegas Raiders have been one of the most disappointing franchises in recent memory, making the playoffs just once since moving from Oakland in 2020. A combined record of 7-27 over the last two seasons is the worst in the NFL, but it has rewarded the Raiders with a pair of prospects at the skill positions. Ashton Jeanty had a productive rookie year last season, and now he has a new quarterback to give him the ball: Fernando Mendoza. The Heisman Trophy winner who led Indiana to an undefeated championship has high expectations heading into his debut season. Can Mendoza finally be the man to drag the Raiders back into relevance, or will it be another swing and miss for this disastrous franchise? 

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Las Vegas Raiders Offseason Recap

The Las Vegas Raiders made a wide range of changes that are expected for a team that finished dead-last in the league. However, none will be more important than their moves at quarterback. Geno Smith was shown the door to make space for a new veteran to lead this team: Kirk Cousins. Cousins is now 38 years old and not getting any younger, but he has shown the ability to still play at a high level. He had productive stints with Washington and Minnesota before struggling with the Falcons, but there is reason for optimism that he can turn back the clock in Las Vegas. His leadership both on and off the field will be crucial for the Raiders. While his primary job will be to win football games as the projected Week 1 starter, his other role will be guiding the raw talent of Fernando Mendoza. 

Mendoza was drafted first overall by the Raiders to the surprise of no one. While he isn’t a generational talent coming out of college like Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence, there is still plenty of buzz around the former Hoosier. Mendoza won the Heisman with a stunning 41 touchdowns on 379 passing attempts with just six interceptions, meaning 10.8% of his passing attempts ended in a touchdown. His 6’5 frame means he will be able to seamlessly transition into the NFL, and there are really few glaring weaknesses to his game. His football IQ is off the charts, and he backs it up with an incredible work ethic, dedicating hours and hours to mastering playbooks and studying coverages. On the field, his downfield accuracy is rarely seen in college, and his willingness to stand tall in the pocket lets him make those explosive plays, even at the cost of getting hit. As far as quarterback prospects go, there aren’t many more well-rounded, high-ceiling players like Mendoza. 

Elsewhere on the field, the Raiders retooled their roster as they look to emerge from their rebuild. Center Tyler Linderbaum was poached from the Ravens and is widely considered one of the best centers in the league. Keeping the fragile Cousins or the highly-touted Mendoza upright will be crucial for the Raiders, and Linderbaum will give them some real stability. They also picked up Spencer Burford to start at left guard, releasing Alex Cappa to make space. 

On defense, the Raiders ripped apart the middle of the field with two new high-profile linebackers. Quay Walker spent the last four years anchoring the middle of the Packers defense, while Nakobe Dean had a productive tenure in Philadelphia. Walker and Dean will both instantly slot in as starters and should help revitalize a bottom-ten defense and give cover elsewhere on the field. Once you add in the arrival of Kwity Paye too, the Raiders suddenly have a potentially daunting defense waiting behind the relentless Maxx Crosby. 

2026 Las Vegas Raiders Season Expectations

The expectations will always be limited for a team coming off 4-13 and 3-14 seasons. Cousins is expected to start Week 1 at quarterback over Mendoza, as the Raiders will not rush his development at this stage of his career. While it is hard to say whether Cousins or Mendoza will win more games for the Raiders right now, it feels inevitable that Mendoza will eventually take over as QB1 at some point this year. Whoever is in the pocket for Las Vegas, they will have no shortage of targets to aim at. Ashton Jeanty was one of the best running backs in the league last season, and looks to dominate again this year. His ability to both run and catch makes him a crucial part of this offense. A high ankle sprain picked up in training camp has dimmed the Raiders' optimism, but he will undoubtedly make an impact when he gets back on the field. 

In the meantime, it is time for Brock Bowers to truly emerge as a tight end phenom. Bowers’ massive frame allows him to be the safety blanket every quarterback craves in the middle of the field. His reliable hands produced 1,194 receiving yards in his rookie year before injuries limited him to 680 yards in 12 games last season. Bowers can not only catch, but he can also block, meaning his health is imperative to all aspects of this offense. 

Once you factor in that the Super Bowl window is currently open for the rest of the AFC West, it is hard to imagine the Raiders playing meaningful football in the tail end of the season. Their offense will likely be a competent unit, but there are still too many question marks on defense to call for a winning season. Crosby is one of the most dominant pass rushers in the game with a team-high 10 sacks last year, but he would’ve been traded were it not for a failed physical, and may not be 100% in on the Raiders rebuild. A mediocre defense would still be an improvement, but too many variables would need to line up to see Las Vegas competing. 

2026 Las Vegas Raiders Schedule Breakdown

The Raiders have the seventh-hardest schedule based on last year’s standings, but are closer to the middle of the pack based on 2026 projected win totals. The AFC West is a battleground with the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs all favored to make the playoffs, leaving scraps for Las Vegas. However, the schedule gets a bit easier since they finished last in the division last year, giving them bonus games against the Saints, Browns, and Titans. The tough NFC West is also scheduled for the Raiders this year, but they get a pair of winnable games against the Dolphins and Jets in the AFC East. 

2026 Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds

The Las Vegas Raiders have a win total of 5.5 games with -140 odds on the over. They are still projected to miss the playoffs with -1000 odds to miss and +575 odds to make the postseason, but there are improvements expected in Las Vegas. In terms of the AFC West, the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos all have +220 odds to win the division or shorter, with the Raiders languishing in a distant fourth with +1800 odds. Looking at the bottom of the standings, the Raiders have the joint-fourth-lowest odds to finish with the worst record at +900, something they achieved last year with a 3-14 record. 

There is very little to be gained by discussing the Raiders' +15000 Super Bowl odds, but there are a few Raiders who may taste individual silverware. Maxx Crosby has +1600 odds to win Defensive Player of the Year, the fifth-shortest in the league, while Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty have +6000 and +7500 odds respectively for the Offensive Player of the Year award. Finally, despite not being slated to start Week 1, Fernando Mendoza has the second-shortest odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year with +550 odds. Mendoza would be the runaway favorite if he were starting, and could still be a great value bet if he takes over in the first month or two of the season. 

2026 Las Vegas Raiders Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Las Vegas Raiders are unlikely to struggle as they have over the last two years, but that doesn’t mean Raider fans should start making Super Bowl plans. Mendoza and Jeanty could be the answer for the Raiders, but that is far from guaranteed. Rookie quarterbacks usually struggle, and the Jeanty injury looms large as Week 1 inches closer. However, there is a lot to get excited about in Las Vegas. A revamped defense could see this team be competent on that side of the ball while it feels like their offense is ready to explode. Cousins will bring veteran leadership to a team without many strong presences, and could guide this side to a few early victories. The Raiders have the Dolphins and Saints scheduled inside the first three weeks of the season, and early success could snowball into wins. This isn’t my top pick of all 32 NFL teams, but I do like the odds on Las Vegas to secure six or more wins. It is very hard to stay truly terrible in the NFL for several seasons on end as there is always constant roster turnover. Bettors may turn away from this team based on what they saw over the last two years, but if they can start 2-1 or at the very least 1-2, six or more wins is very feasible. 

Top Pick: Las Vegas Raiders Over 5.5 Wins -140

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