2026 Miami Dolphins Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/25/2026

The Miami Dolphins are heading into a rebuild after officially closing the door on the Tua Tagovailoa era. There were some good times with Tagovailoa, who went 46-32 with the Dolphins, but they never reached the heights they were expected to. Injuries, off-field issues, and one or two close games could have changed how this tenure was viewed, but that was not the case. Optimism is at an all-time low in Miami, but can the Dolphins find a way to stay competitive?

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Miami Dolphins Offseason Recap

Where do we start? The Dolphins missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons with 8-9 and 7-10 records, causing management to upend the franchise. General manager Chris Grier left midway through last year, while head coach Mike McDaniel was fired immediately after the season ended. On the field, Miami released Tagovailoa, traded Jaylen Waddle, and released Tyreek Hill after Hill dealt with injuries last season. Their three primary skill position players are gone, leaving a shell of a roster in 2026. Waddle and Hill were once seen as the best receiving tandem in the league, leaving very little to get excited about in their wake. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa dealt with several concussions throughout the latter half of his time in Miami and was signed by the Falcons to a veteran minimum contract.

As if that wasn’t enough, the Dolphins also lost a pair of key defenders in Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Chubb and Fitzpatrick were arguably the two best defenders in Miami, with Fitzpatrick being a five-time Pro Bowler and a three-time First-team All-Pro. Fitzpatrick was mercifully traded to the Jets for a late-round draft pick as the Dolphins looked to cash in on any assets they had left this offseason.

What now? The Dolphins needed a new quarterback with Tagovailoa off the roster, and didn’t want to force anything with the 12th overall pick in the draft. Instead, Miami signed Malik Willis to start this season. Willis has been a fringe player over his four-year career, seeing game time in between three and eight games per season. He has been serviceable when called on, but this is undoubtedly the best chance of his career to earn a starting job. Quinn Ewers and Cam Miller are not eye-popping QB2s and QB3s, giving Willis enough runway to get through his growing pains. His athleticism and accuracy give him a high ceiling, but poor ball security and decision-making have prevented him from taking the next step.

Elsewhere on offense, Miami had to revitalize their wide receiver room with Waddle and Hill departing. They picked up Tutu Atwell and Jalen Tolbert in free agency while spending two top-100 draft picks on Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas. There is no standout WR2 behind Malik Washington in Miami, meaning any of their additions could emerge as a legitimate threat this season. The rebuilding Dolphins will be more concerned with evaluating and developing talent than winning games this year, and they have no shortage of options at wide receiver.

With their top three draft picks this season, the Dolphins ate their meat and vegetables with Kadyn Proctor being selected 12th overall to solidify their offensive line before using the next two top-50 picks on game changers for their defense. Chris Johnson was hailed as one of the best corners available this year and will slot right into the starting lineup at nickelback. Jacob Rodriguez will also make an impact at linebacker, although he is a raw talent who is expected to spend some time on the bench before taking over.

2026 Miami Dolphins Season Expectations

The Dolphins have won at least seven games in six straight seasons, but it would take a miracle for them to keep that streak alive this year. Miami gutted their entire roster over the summer, hoping to write a new chapter for the legendary franchise. Expectations will always be low with a career backup quarterback, unproven wide receivers, and a below-average defensive unit. Hey, at least they still have De’Von Achane. The dynamic running back should give Dolphins fans something to cheer about this season, but that is about the only bright spot on this roster. I won’t go as far as to say that the Dolphins want to lose games to enter the Arch Manning sweepstakes, but the reality is that this franchise is already looking further down the road rather than focusing on this season.

2026 Miami Dolphins Schedule Breakdown

Not only does Miami have a weak roster, but they also have one of the toughest schedules in the league. They have the second-hardest strength of schedule based on last year’s win percentages, and also the second-hardest based on 2026 projected win totals. The AFC East features the always-tough Bills and Patriots, but they do get some relief with a possible win over the Jets. They also take on the NFC North and AFC West, both of which are expected to send multiple teams to the playoffs this season. To wrap it up as a reward for finishing third in the division last year, the Dolphins get bonus games against the Colts, 49ers, and Bengals. Four of their first six games are on the road, with an early bye creating a brutal second half of the season. On the bright side, they close out the year against the Broncos, Bears, Packers, Chargers, Bills, and Patriots. If things have already gone sideways by Week 11, the Dolphins should have no problem securing the first overall pick with a string of losable matchups.

2026 Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

How do we find wins on this schedule? The Dolphins will be double-digit underdogs several times this season, and while anything can happen in the NFL, a positive season would require quite a stretch of the imagination. Miami has the joint-lowest win total at 3.5 victories with -145 odds on the over, emphasizing how bad this team will truly be. They have very long odds to make the playoffs (+1500) and to win the AFC East (+4000). At the bottom of the standings, Miami is coming in with +375 odds to have the worst regular-season record in the league. There is no point in touching on their outlandish Super Bowl odds or a Malik Willis MVP bet, as the Dolphins' best chance at an award is De’Von Achane to win Offensive Player of the Year at +6000, which will not happen.

2026 Miami Dolphins Season Predictions and Best Bets

The market expected this team to be bad, but I think they are even worse than these odds suggest. Miami is benefiting from several competent seasons in a row, which has prevented their win total from dipping even lower. The head coach is gone, the general manager is gone, their quarterback and receivers are gone, and the backbone of their defense is gone. What is left? There will always be hungry rookies looking to secure their place in the league, but the reality is that the Dolphins will be second favorites in every game this season aside from potentially a home game against the Jets. Willis is not a game changer, Achane can’t do it alone, and a leaky defense will ensure Miami is often out of the contest by the second half. Everyone knows this team will be bad, but some recent positive memories are keeping them from truly understanding the misery in Miami.

For the first bet, I am all over the +115 odds on under 3.5 wins. The Dolphins only have three games scheduled against teams expected to miss the playoffs, and every opponent will have this one circled as a potentially easy win. Miami has stayed relatively competitive with disjointed rosters in the past, but there are too many holes to fill this year. To take it a step further, we will also sprinkle on the Dolphins to have the worst regular-season record at +375. The Cardinals and Dolphins will be racing to the bottom this season, as both have identical win totals justified by terrible rosters and the two hardest schedules. However, Arizona has +250 odds to finish bottom while we can get +375 with Miami. The gap is hard to explain, but we will not complain about a juicy price on a Dolphins under.

Pick: Miami Dolphins Under 3.5 Wins +115

Top Pick: Miami Dolphins to have the Worst Regular Season Record +375

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Pick:	Houston -145
Start:	August 29, 2026 @ 8:30 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take Houston -145 over San Jose (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday August 29) We have been doing well with our free soccer picks, so let’s grab another winner this Saturday. San Jose was high in the MLS standings to start the season with nine wins in 10 matches, but they haven’t won since before the World Cup. Since June, they have five losses and a draw, with a goal differential of -14. They hosted another struggling side, Minnesota, on Saturday, and this was the worst loss yet, a 5-1 home loss. They gave up during that match, and that seemed like a spot where they might circle the wagons and give an inspired performance. But instead, it seems like they didn’t care. They have been plummeting in the standings, and we just don’t see them raising their level of play here on the road against Houston, the No. 2 side in the Western Conference. Houston has collected 22 points at home in 10 matches, with seven outright wins and a +6 goal differential. They have won 11 of 15 home meetings against San Jose. The Earthquakes have conceded at least a goal now in 17 straight matches, and the defense and goalkeeping has been dreadful and seems to be getting worse by the match. We think this number will rise as the match gets closer, so jump on this one early! Read More Read Less

2026 Miami Dolphins Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

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