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2026 Minnesota Vikings Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/25/2026

Minnesota Vikings predictions Kyler Murray

The Minnesota Vikings barely missed out on the playoffs last year after going 9-8, but still underwent a major overhaul in the offseason. A gutted defense with a new starter at quarterback will always change expectations, but the odds still have Minnesota as a potential playoff team this season. Can Kyler Murray lead the Vikings to their first playoff win since 2019, or will Minnesota miss the playoffs in back-to-back years for the second time this decade?

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Minnesota Vikings Offseason Recap

The Vikings were an elite defensive unit last season with a mediocre offense, but I am not sure either side of the football got noticeably better in the offseason. 

On offense, the Vikings made their biggest move by acquiring Kyler Murray to challenge JJ McCarthy for the starting quarterback spot. McCarthy looked fragile during his rookie campaign, throwing 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions across his 10 appearances. His upside is certainly still there with athleticism and accuracy, but it is clear that McCarthy is not quite ready to lead a playoff-caliber team. Instead, the Vikings picked up Kyler Murray from the Cardinals, who is expected to start Week 1. Murray had an up-and-down seven years in Arizona, but he is in his prime and ready to win now with Minnesota. A Week 5 foot injury kept him out for most of last season, but his career 121-60 TD-INT ratio is still quite impressive. Murray is the type of quarterback who doesn't need much to succeed around him, as his agile frame allows him to dip in and out of the pocket. He is the shortest starting quarterback in the league at 5’ 10”, preventing him from seeing over a towering offensive line. Physical shortcomings aside, Murray can fit balls into tight windows, he usually makes the right choice in clutch situations, and is a great value pickup for Minnesota, who got him at a veteran minimum price tag as the Cardinals still owe him a boatload of cash. 

The Vikings were relatively quiet on offense otherwise, with Jauan Jennings being their only other impactful signing, but they absolutely cleaned house on defense. Jonathan Greenard was traded to the Eagles for a pair of third-round picks, and his absence will be immediately felt. He didn’t put up monstrous sack numbers last year like earlier in his career, but his ability to read plays and stop the run is hard to replace. 

Minnesota was also forced to release Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, both of whom had major roles as pass rushers last year. Losing veteran talent such as this trio always hurts a defense, and once you add in safety Harrison Smith also leaving the Vikings, defensive coordinator Brian Flores has his work cut out for him on this side of the ball. The addition of first-round pick Caleb Banks to the defensive line will help plug those holes, but it is a lot to ask Banks to suddenly become a premier pass rusher in his rookie season. 

2026 Minnesota Vikings Season Expectations

A strong defense can always carry an NFL team to wins, as we saw with Minnesota last year. Their offense was sputtering for long stretches, but the Vikings still finished over .500 thanks to their defensive abilities. Now that Justin Jefferson is healthy and has arguably the best quarterback of his career throwing him the ball in Kyler Murray, it is easy to see why Vikings fans are getting excited. However, I am not buying it. 

Flores is one of the best coordinators in the league and could certainly have another chance as a head coach in the near future, but even he will struggle to elevate this defense. Banks may turn out to be the next great pass rusher, but that still leaves Minnesota incredibly shorthanded compared to the wealth of defensive talent from last season. They were third in total defense with the second-best passing defense in the league last season, and still only managed to win nine games. Even a slight uptick in offensive efficiency will not have as big an impact on the Vikings’ record as a middle-of-the-pack defense will. Murray is an upgrade over McCarthy; I am not denying that, but he is not a future Hall of Famer who will transform a disjointed unit from last year. His health is still a major concern, and there are growing rumblings that the locker room is split on who should be the starting signal caller. Unless Flores can pull a rabbit out of a hat on defense, the Vikings will struggle to make it a third straight winning season. 

2026 Minnesota Vikings Schedule Breakdown

The Vikings have a very average strength of schedule based on both last year's records and this year's projected win totals. There are no easy games in the NFC North with the Bears, Lions, and Packers all among Super Bowl favorites, but they have easier matchups elsewhere. The NFC South has been a joke for the last several seasons, while a pair of winnable matchups against the AFC East’s Dolphins and Jets should raise the floor for this team. Minnesota opens up the year with three of their first five on the road before their bye week, but a gauntlet of Green Bay, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Miami, and New Orleans is certainly survivable. Not much to highlight on this schedule, as the Vikings have a nice variety of easy, medium, and challenging matchups. 

2026 Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds

The Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 last season and are expected to have a similar fate this year with an 8.5 win total. Sure, the Vikings closed out the year on a five-game win streak, but that doesn’t mean we can automatically expect wins this season. The oddsmakers agree that the Vikings are the worst team in the NFC North with +475 odds to claim the division, but are still giving them +150 odds to make the playoffs. If they do make the playoffs, Minnesota has +2200 odds to win the conference, the ninth-shortest, with +4500 odds to win the Super Bowl.

Looking at the potential awards, Kyler Murray is one of the frontrunners to win Comeback Player of the Year at +550 odds, while Justin Jefferson once again finds himself near the top of the Offensive Player of the Year list at +1600. 

2026 Minnesota Vikings Season Predictions and Best Bets

Offense wins games and defense wins championships, but I am not sure the Vikings have either. Kyler Murray still has yet to prove he can consistently win games, and a foot injury gone wrong last season may take away his mobility. I am sure that Brian Flores will find a diamond in the rough during training camp, but will it be enough to offset four consequential veteran departures? The Vikings will be acceptable on both sides of the ball, but without a standout unit, they won’t be able to put teams away. 

For the first pick, we will happily grab +110 odds on the Vikings to stay under 8.5 wins. Minnesota has exceeded expectations in back-to-back seasons, but their tumultuous offseason will be too much to overcome. A tough division could see the Vikings looking ahead to the 2027 NFL Draft during the second half of the season, which will allow them to stay just under this total.
If you are looking for a safer pick to potentially use in an NFL futures parlay, taking the Vikings to miss the playoffs at -190 is a great pick. Minnesota will need to win 10, or potentially 11, games to make the playoffs in a deep NFC, and that is a real long shot. We won’t retire the family on a -190 pick, but it is still a great stocking stuffer to jam in a playoff parlay. The plus-money win total will take the top pick spot, purely because we need to tie up less bankroll over five months to target the same profit. 

Top Pick: Minnesota Vikings Under 8.5 Wins +110

Pick: Minnesota Vikings to Miss the Playoffs -190

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