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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 10/13/2026

NFL betting predictions Week 6 opening line report Dak Prescott

One of the most effective ways to win against the spread picks in the NFL is by finding closing line value. If you can secure an extra point or two in your favor by locking in your picks early in the week, it can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we got back in the win column with a 2-1 showing. The Philadelphia Eagles covered the +6.5 point spread in London against Jacksonville, while the Lions made it look easy as -4.5 point favorites in their blowout win against Arizona. Our lone defeat was with the Indianapolis Colts +2.5 against the Steelers, where they lost by 12 after being within two points with seven minutes to play. Before we get into a tantalizing trio of Week 6 picks, here are the biggest storylines from around the league in Week 5.

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  • NFC Least: Dallas got embarrassed at home by the previously winless Buccaneers, Philadelphia took the lead with eight seconds to go, and still lost, while the Giants and Commanders had an embarrassing tie after numerous gaffes in overtime. The NFC East went winless in Week 5, as all four franchises are simultaneously crumbling. 
  • Texans Win! Houston went 0-3 to start the season last year before winning 12 of their final 14, and are now one game closer to pulling it off again this season. Of course, the 1-4 Texans winning their first game of the season against the 0-5 Titans doesn’t mean it is time to plan the parade, but it is a step in the right direction for a franchise with so much potential. 
  • Vikings on top: Minnesota is one of two 5-0 teams in the NFL as they once again leaned on a dominant defense to find success. Their 23-13 victory over the Saints extended their lead at the top of the division, and their 64 points allowed this year is the least in the league. 
  • Packers dominate. Period. Just when Green Bay looked dead in the water, a 31-7 win over the Chicago Bears got them back on track. The Packers looked truly terrible through the first four weeks, but are somehow now sitting with a winning record thanks to 367 passing yards with two touchdowns from Jordan Love. 
  • 49ers find a way: San Francisco improved to 5-0 with a victory over the reigning Super Bowl champions. Brock Purdy and Mike Evans have already formed an incredible connection, as the 49ers stormed back in the fourth quarter to stay on top of the NFC West. 
  • Game of the Year? The expectations were high heading into a Monday night showdown between the Bills and Rams, and both teams delivered an instant classic. Matthew Stafford completed 40 passes for 383 yards, but it wasn’t enough as a pair of missed kicks, including one in overtime, handed the Bills the win. Josh Allen scrambled for 121 yards on the ground in the 37-34 overtime victory for Buffalo. 

Now that Week 5 is behind us, it is time to look ahead at Week 6. Four teams are on bye, which gives us 14 games to choose from, and there are three spots that really stick out at this stage in the week. Make sure you lock these picks in immediately, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around on Sunday. 

Game 1: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans in London, England

Opening Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

We correctly faded the Jaguars in London last week, but we are flipping sides and laying the points with the AFC South leaders in Week 6. Jacksonville escaped with a victory against a lifeless Eagles side, as this team continues to find ways to win regardless of the circumstances. Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career, the Jacksonville defense has stepped up with a league-low 63.8 rushing yards allowed per game and the second fewest-points. Meanwhile, this line is surprisingly close for a 4-1 team ‘hosting’ a Texans side that just got their first win of the season. Sure, Houston looked good last week. But how much can we read into a win over the winless Titans? The Texans offense still has massive question marks at this stage of the season, while their defense looks solid, but not dominant enough to carry a lackluster offense. This line is currently at a crucial number under a field goal, which makes it essential to lock it in now. The value shrinks dramatically at -3 or -3.5 for Jacksonville, and once the public realizes that the Texans can’t suddenly be trusted, this line may move. 

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Game 2: New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Opening Line: New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Why are the Giants home underdogs in this matchup? They would have beaten the Commanders to move to 4-1 if they had not missed three field goals, and have looked solid on both sides of the ball. When the Giants’ offensive line gives Jameis Winston the time he needs to pick out a pass from the pocket, he almost always makes the right throw. Winston looks far more mature than he did earlier in his career, and that is exactly what this team needs. On the other side of the ball, New York’s defense has allowed the tenth-fewest points this year despite really struggling on third down. Brian Burns has been dominant up front, while rookie linebacker Arvell Reese leads the league in solo tackles. Meanwhile, the Saints are 1-4 to start the year, Tyler Shough has struggled in the pocket, and a lack of a run game has kept them behind the sticks. The Saints have lost three straight, none of which have been particularly close, which makes this spread hard to justify. Maybe, and that’s still a big maybe, the Saints could be favored at home, but with this one going down at MetLife Stadium, this line makes no sense and we are not complaining. 

Pick: New York Giants (+1.5)

Game 3: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Green Bay Packers (-1)

The Packers are slight favorites against Dallas on Sunday Night Football, but I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. The Cowboys ‘defense has looked dreadful this season, allowing the most rushing yards and the second-most total yards, with the highest third-down conversion rate in the league. While this is concerning, especially against a Packers side that just tore apart a strong Chicago defense, they have the talent to turn things around. Dallas played on Thursday last week which gives them extra rest and time to prepare for this matchup, and that could be the difference if the Packers move the ball early. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense is among the best units in the league, and I still don’t trust the Packers to keep up if Dallas finds its rhythm early. Green Bay has no run game with Josh Jacobs still on the sidelines, and I don’t trust Jordan Love to replicate his strong showing from last week when Green Bay find itself in lots of third-and-longs against Dallas. This is the perfect time to sell high on Green Bay before they collapse again, and I would take this one all the way down to -1.5 for the Cowboys. 

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+1)

Season Record: 7-8

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