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NFL Week 6 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis

by Jeremy Block - 10/14/2026

NFL Week 6 line movements Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

Timing matters just as much as picking the right side in sports betting, since the number available on Monday isn’t always the one waiting on Sunday. An injury, an ugly loss or a wave of bets on one side can move a line within a few days, and a handful of Week 6 spreads have shifted since the early numbers came out.

Four games have seen the biggest swings, and one of them has flipped a favorite altogether. Here’s why each spread moved and which side you need to back before it moves again.

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Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (Cowboys -2 to Packers -1.5)

Week 5 had the Cowboys as one of the most heavily bet teams, laying 9.5 points at home against a Buccaneers team starting a rookie quarterback, and it doesn’t get much uglier than a 24-16 loss.

Meanwhile, the Packers’ offense finally woke up, with Jordan Love throwing for 367 yards in a 31-point showing against a division rival that ranks top five in fewest points allowed. One team got embarrassed on their own field while the other took off, so it makes sense Dallas went from favorite to underdog. They still haven’t figured it out this season, and even at -1.5, Green Bay is the pick at Lambeau.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (Falcons -1.5 to Bears -3)

Both teams took hits at quarterback, but the news that Caleb Williams is expected back from his hamstring injury flipped this spread, turning Atlanta from a 1.5-point favorite into a 3-point underdog.

Michael Penix Jr. is likely out with a rib injury, but Tua Tagovailoa is far from a bad backup, and the Falcons still have arguably the best running back in football, a solid receiving corps and a defense that holds up well against the run. Even with Williams back, I’ll take Atlanta and the three points at home.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (Rams -10.5 to Rams -12.5)

Losses don’t usually move a spread in a team’s favor, but after seeing the Rams’ offense go the distance against Buffalo in a 37-34 overtime loss, with Matthew Stafford completing 40 passes for 383 yards, a two-point bump against the Cardinals fits the bill.

Arguably the league’s punching bag on a four-game losing streak, Arizona needs a lifeline, and it doesn’t look like one is coming Sunday. As tempting as it is to take the 12.5 points with a Rams team that has piled on the points this year, there’s still a chance the Cardinals keep this within 12. I’m staying away from this one.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (Ravens -3 to Ravens -4.5)

Even without Lamar Jackson, Baltimore went into Atlanta as a 3-point underdog and came out with a 30-23 overtime win. As much as the Ravens leaned on Derrick Henry, Tyler Huntley led the way against a Falcons team that had just scored 45 points on New Orleans, forcing this line to move from Ravens -3 to -4.5.

Here’s the deal. Jackson is still week-to-week with an ankle injury, though some reports hint he could return against a Cleveland team that struggled to find the end zone against the Jets. The bottom line is the Browns’ three-game win streak already ended last week, and another loss is coming with or without Jackson in the lineup. Play the 4.5.

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