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2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/29/2026

Pittsburgh Steelers predictions Aaron Rodgers

After 19 consecutive seasons with a .500 record or better and Mike Tomlin at the helm, it is a new era in Pittsburgh. The Steelers let Tomlin go, making Mike McCarthy the fourth head coach for Pittsburgh since 1968. Tomlin never had a losing season, but no playoff wins since 2016 was not good enough for one of the most dominant franchises in the NFL. Can McCarthy squeeze out one more season from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, or will the Steelers have a losing record for the first time since 2003?

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Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Recap

The Steelers' biggest change came at the head coaching position, but that was not the only alteration this summer. Aaron Rodgers was re-signed for another year, but the Steelers shipped out several of their other veterans. Six skill position players: running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Connor Heyward, wide receivers Calvin Austin, Adam Thielen, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and tight end Jonnu Smith are all no longer in Pittsburgh. Gainwell is probably the biggest loss for Pittsburgh from that list, as the versatile running back had more than 1,000 all-purpose yards last season and can be very effective in both the running and passing game. 

In terms of arrivals, the Steelers got a couple of big names in Rico Dowdle in the backfield and Michael Pittman Jr. at wide receiver. Dowdle surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons and will now look to create a running back tandem with Jaylen Warren in Pittsburgh. Dowdle knows how to share carries as he split responsibilities with Chuba Hubbard last year, and will be an excellent addition to the Steelers roster. At wide receiver, Pittman’s arrival gives the Steelers another legitimate WR1 alongside D.K. Metcalf. Pittman was the epitome of consistency during his tenure with the Colts, rarely getting injured and putting up more than 750 yards in each of his last five seasons. He thrives in the short and intermediate passing game with his large frame and will be a difficult man to slow down. Second-round draft pick Germie Bernard will also get his chance to shine, as the Steelers are lacking depth options behind their two primary pass catchers. 

On defense, the Steelers primarily altered their secondary while leaving their front seven relatively unchanged. There was some movement at the depth positions for their pass rushers, but Pittsburgh knew that their secondary was the area of interest. They shipped out defensive backs Jabril Peppers, Chuck Clark, and James Pierre, making space for Jamel Dean and Asante Samuel Jr. on the roster. Dean will instantly slot in as the starting corner for Pittsburgh and was a mainstay in the Tampa Bay secondary for the last seven years. Dean will give the Steelers a new look on defense and will slot in nicely alongside Jalen Ramsey. 

2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Season Expectations

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be expecting to have another winning season, as that is what this franchise does. There is a mountain of pressure on McCarthy to deliver immediate success during his first season in Pittsburgh, and he certainly has a lineup capable of doing so. TJ Watt is a complete animal on defense, routinely getting double-teamed but still making an impact. Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, and Keeanu Benton all put up 5.5 or more sacks last season, in addition to Watt, as Pittsburgh was able to consistently get to the quarterback. They finished last year with the 26th-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed, but are heading into 2026 with a top-five defensive line. Their 12 fumble recoveries were the second-most in the NFL, fueling Pittsburgh’s impressive +12 turnover differential. 

The Steelers defense is capable of great things, but what can we expect on offense? How much does Aaron Rodgers have left in the tank? What is his will to win? 

There are more questions than answers heading into the season with 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers at the helm. He had an efficient year last season with 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, but there is no guarantee he can do so again in 2026. His mobility is completely shot, and unless he gets a clean pocket, he will be unable to deliver the accurate strikes he has over the last 20 years. He can undoubtedly still sling the ball, but his off-field antics combined with a divided locker room make Rodgers a very risky man to roll with. The Steelers have no shortage of hungry quarterbacks waiting in the wings, as Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, and Drew Allar could all take over if things go south. 

2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Schedule Breakdown

The Pittsburgh Steelers are smack in the middle of the always physical AFC North and have a relatively average schedule this year. They have the 14th-easiest schedule in terms of last year’s win percentages, but the 14th-hardest in terms of 2026 projected win totals. Pittsburgh opens up the year with a home game against Atlanta, which feels like a must-win, before taking on the Patriots and Bengals the next two weeks. They have a total of four primetime games scheduled in addition to their trip to Paris to play the Saints, with a desirable bye in Week 9. They have to go through both the NFC and AFC South this year, with their three extra games coming against the Patriots, Eagles, and Broncos. Some winnable games and some tough matchups in a very average schedule. 

2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have given Pittsburgh a win total of 8.5 this season with +110 odds on the over. This means they have slightly less than a 50% chance of extending their streak of no losing seasons, although they don’t have much of a playoff chance. Pittsburgh has +500 odds to win the AFC North, as they did last season, and +150 odds to make the playoffs. Looking further, the Steelers have the 10th-best odds to win the AFC at +2500, and below-average Super Bowl odds at +5000. 

In terms of individual awards, the Steelers have two primary contenders for silverware. TJ Watt has +2500 odds to win his second career Defensive Player of the Year award, the fifth-shortest odds in the league, while Mike McCarthy has +2200 odds to win Coach of the Year in his first season with the Steelers. 

2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Season Predictions and Best Bets

I am calling it. The Steelers' streak of 22 straight seasons without a losing record is coming to an end. Mike Tomlin may have had his flaws with conservative playcalling, but it also allowed the Steelers to edge out games they had no business winning. McCarthy has strengths of his own, but his tendency to get overaggressive will come back to bite Pittsburgh. Rodgers is far from the quarterback he once was, and a potential mid-season change will not be the recipe for success in Pittsburgh. This defense dramatically underperformed last year and was a bottom-ten unit, and it is hard to say they got much better. Their retooled offense will show signs of life, but it won’t be enough to win close games. The Steelers got fortunate with their fumbles last year and their +12 turnover differential, and if that doesn’t happen again, they will be in trouble. For the first pick, we will be taking the Steelers to miss the playoffs at -180 odds. We could take under 8.5 wins at -140, but I like paying a slightly higher price on this line instead. Nine wins is unlikely to give the Steelers a playoff berth, but it will cash our -180 bet while losing our -140 bet. I do think Pittsburgh finishes below .500, and it might not even be close, but we will get more aggressive with our other wagers. If you’re cooking up an NFL futures parlay, Pittsburgh to miss the playoffs is a great leg. 

For the second pick, let’s take an alternative under for some plus money. Under 7.5 wins is paying +125, which I like much better than their standard total. It is always better to chase plus money when locking up capital for several months, and I really don’t see Pittsburgh being remotely competitive this year. The plus money is nice, but we aren’t done yet. For the last bet, we will take Pittsburgh to finish last in the AFC North at +300 odds. The Bengals and Ravens should be well clear of the Steelers, leaving the Browns as the biggest threat for last place. Cleveland certainly has issues of its own, but their 2026 odds are being artificially weighed down by previous failures while the Steelers are being inflated by historical success. I don’t see much of a difference between these two current rosters, and will happily take a shot with the Steelers to finish below Cleveland. The Browns have an easier schedule and more continuity on the sidelines, making this +300 price tag worth a wager. 

Top Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers to Miss the Playoffs -180

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Under 7.5 Wins +125

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers to Finish Last in the AFC North +300

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