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2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 9/1/2026

Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions Baker Mayfield

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019 last season after finishing 8-9. Tampa Bay had previously been able to take advantage of a weak NFC South with four straight division titles, but it appears as though their Super Bowl window is starting to close. Can Baker Mayfield and company squeeze one more strong season out of this aging core, or will the rest of the NFC South come storming into the picture?

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Recap

The Buccaneers had a relatively quiet offseason, looking to replace departing veteran talent from within and through the draft rather than chase expensive signings in free agency. The big loss this year was Mike Evans, who had spent the last 12 seasons in Tampa Bay. Evans was the epitome of consistency during his Buccaneers tenure, posting 1,000 or more receiving yards in 11 straight seasons before falling short last year. He has been one of the most reliable receivers in the league, and while he isn’t getting any younger at 33 years old, Evans will still leave a big hole to fill at wide receiver. 

The Buccaneers also lost linebacker Lavonte David, who had been an anchor in the middle of the defense for the last several seasons, but picked up two elite talents in the draft. Reuben Bain Jr. was a steal at 15th overall and could develop into an elite edge rusher, while linebacker Josiah Trotter was taken in the second round and will have a real role to play this season. The Buccaneers also scooped up Alex Anzalone to help replace David, who is expected to start over Trotter in Week 1, but will likely split snaps at linebacker. 

Tampa Bay also secured Kenneth Gainwell to replace Rachaad White at running back, and drafted Ted Hurst in the third round to form a young tandem with Jalen McMillan at wide receiver. Overall, the Buccaneers didn’t overhaul their team but rather made a few key signings to replace departing talent.

2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Expectations

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be expecting to go back to the playoffs this year after sitting out last year’s festivities. Baker Mayfield has had the best spell of his NFL career with Tampa Bay, and it is clear the front office trusts him with the keys to this franchise. Mayfield can make mistakes by getting too aggressive with shots down the field, but he makes up for it with stellar accuracy and the ability to pick up first downs with his legs too. Not only is Mayfield a leader on the field, but his locker room presence cannot be ignored. Mayfield is an undeniable winner and has the swagger needed to fuse a team. Tampa Bay doesn’t have any top-end superstars on the roster, but unity and a sneakily deep roster could push them to a deep playoff run. 

The Buccaneers offense is very predictable, and their postseason aspirations will come down to how they play on defense. They finished last year with the 20th-ranked defense in both points allowed and yards allowed, and they were far from a coherent unit. Against the run, Tampa Bay was excellent with 99.1 rushing yards allowed per game, the fifth-fewest in the league. However, things went sideways in the passing game, as teams racked up 238.2 passing yards per game, the sixth-most in the league. Tampa Bay really struggled to generate pressure up front, but did a great job of taking away easy yards in the middle with dominant interior defensive linemen. Vita Vea is not afraid to get his hands dirty in the trenches, and his contract extension over the summer keeps him in Tampa Bay. This defense dialed up the blitz early and often last season under head coach Todd Bowles, but it often resulted in excellent run-stopping rather than consistent sacks in the passing game. Bowles will need to figure out how to generate pressure while not being exposed down the field, and this Tampa Bay defense could suddenly be a solid unit. 

2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Schedule Breakdown

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been able to take advantage of easy schedules over the last few seasons, but that is not the case this year. They have the 23rd-easiest schedule this year in terms of projected 2026 win totals, as their division should improve and they got a tough draw otherwise. They have to go through the AFC North and the NFC North, while their extra games for coming second in the division last year are against the Cowboys, Chargers, and Rams.

Tampa Bay opens up the year on the road against the Bengals, who have traditionally been slow starters, before three straight home games against the Browns, Vikings, and Packers. Tampa Bay will need to take advantage of their early scheduling if they want to make the playoffs, as things don’t get any easier down the stretch. All eight of their opponents after their Week 10 bye are expected to be in playoff contention, including dates with the Lions, Ravens, Chargers, and Super Bowl favorite Rams. If they don’t go into the bye with a winning record, Tampa Bay will struggle to make a playoff push in the final weeks of the year. 

2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

Tampa Bay has a win total of 8.5 this season, juiced to the under, which will put them right on the cusp of making the playoffs. The NFC South has really struggled over the last few years, with Carolina winning the division in 2025 with an 8-9 record, while Tampa Bay’s combined 27-24 record over the previous three seasons was good enough for three division titles. It may only take another 9-win or 10-win campaign to claim the division crown, and Tampa Bay has +185 odds to do so. Their playoff odds are +135, as the NFC South is the only division in football where all four teams are currently favored to miss the playoffs. 

If Tampa Bay does make the playoffs, they have sky-high +5000 Super Bowl odds, which are surprisingly the exact same as their odds to finish with the worst regular-season record. This team has a high ceiling but a low floor, and will need individuals to step up given their departures over the summer. 

Looking at the individual awards, Reuben Bain Jr. is far and away the Buccaneer most likely to win individual silverware. Bain Jr. has +450 odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, making him the outright favorite heading into the season. Bain Jr. is expected to have a massive role to play up front, and a double-digit sack total is certainly within reach. He can drop into coverage, he can cause havoc up front, and there isn’t much competition for playing time for the 21-year-old. The Buccaneers also have Todd Bowles at +5000 for Coach of the Year and Baker Mayfield at +4000 for MVP, but both are seen as real longshots while Bain Jr. has an excellent chance to win. 

2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Buccaneers have been able to eke by with mediocre seasons thanks to no competition in the NFC South. However, I expect that trend to come to an end this year. Atlanta, New Orleans, and Carolina are all expected to be better than last season, while the Buccaneers didn’t do much in the offseason. Cap constraints can be to blame, but the reality is that it’s very hard to confidently say this team got better. Mayfield is a good, reliable quarterback, but he isn’t going to single-handedly win games. Losing Evans at receiver is a massive departure, while their struggles in the passing game on defense aren’t going anywhere. 

For the first pick, we will take Tampa Bay to miss the playoffs at -160 odds. We could take the standard under 8.5 wins at the same price, but it is more likely they miss the playoffs with 9 or 10 wins than they make with 8 or fewer wins. The NFC South will be much more competitive this year; the Buccaneers' additional games are all quite difficult, and there aren’t many games on their schedule where they will be a big favorite. Recency bias has the public thinking another losing record might top the NFC South, but I am very confident at least one division rival will finally pull things together. 

For the second bet, we will take under 6.5 wins at +210 odds. I always like chasing plus money with season-long bets, and this is a great spot to take an alternative total on the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay could start looking ahead to next year's draft and be a seller at the deadline if things don't go their way early, and they are long overdue for a true teardown. This kind of price for a line only 1.5 games under their projected win total is fantastic, so we will lock this one in as Tampa Bay struggles. 

Top Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Miss the Playoffs -160

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 Wins +210

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