NFL Best Bets
The ultimate resource to help you find the best bets each day in NFL football.
Here you will find a list of our best NFL bets against the spread. This page will be updated several times over the weekend.
The page is divided into 4 simple sections.
The first section lists all of our premium member best bets for the day. This section lists all the games for all sports, including NFL. If you don't have a membership at Doc's Sports then you can test out our premium best bets risk free with a complimentary free $60 account here.
The second section lists a couple of our complimentary NFL best bet matchup reports. We write these for every single NFL game. These articles are more for the do-it-yourself types that want to really dig in and also have the time do the extensive research required each day.
The third section ties into the second section where our experts give advice on what to do with the information and how to spot a best bet in NFL.
NFL Best Bets Tonight [Updated daily]
TODAY'S TOP COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
TODAY'S TOP NBA PLAYS
DOC’S SPORTS NBA was one of the best site wide last season for NBA profits (+6,450), and we are ready to make our move for the 2023-24 NBA season. We scored a 5-Unit winner on Monday with Philly. We are coming strong Tuesday with a 7-Unit NBA pick (7:30 p.m. EST). Sign up below for Doc’s Tuesday NBA card for only thirty dollars.
TODAY'S TOP NHL PLAYS
DOC’S SPORTS NHL is on a 12-6 run after a 2-0 sweep on Monday, including an easy 6-Unit winner with the Blue Jackets puckline. We are coming off a winning season and making our move in 2023. We are back Tuesday with a 7-Unit NHL prediction. Sign up below for Doc’s Tuesday NHL prediction for only thirty dollars.
TODAY'S TOP DAILY PROP PLAYS
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Sign up for one of the above best NFL expert picks here. If you are not ready to sign up for one of our top NFL plays, below you will find a free NFL pick and matchup report. You can get free NFL picks weekly for every game here.
Complimentary NFL games for today [Updated daily]
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Prediction, 11/24/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 12
by Parlays Pundit - 11/21/2023
The Miami Dolphins (7-3) are en route to MetLife Stadium on Friday where they will go up against the New York Jets (4-6). Miami opens this contest as 10-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is set at 40. We have included an expert NFL pick and parlay for todays game against the spread. Read More >>
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction, 11/26/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 12
by Guy Bruhn - 11/21/2023
State Farm Stadium is the location where the Arizona Cardinals (2-9) will take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-6) on Sunday. Los Angeles opens this contest as 1-point favorites. The total comes in at 44.5. This matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free NFL pick for tonight. Read More >>
What Makes a Best Bet in NFL? [Updated during the season]
NFL Best Bet Tipsters |
Top 10 Tips |
NFL Football Best Bets Advice |
Doc's Sports |
Bet teams off embarrassing losses… |
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Robert Ferringo |
Locate misleading final scores… |
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Raphael Esparza |
Ride the hot teams all the way… |
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Strike Point Sports |
Look for the short home favorite… |
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Griffin Murphy |
Great attention to injury reports…" |
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Jason Sharpe |
Injuries are an important factor… |
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Doug Upstone |
QB play, scheduling and injuries… |
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Vernon Croy |
Best bets should have the best value… |
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Tony George |
Bet on numbers, not games... |
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August Young |
Track oddsmaker adjustments early season... |
Doc's Sports Service is the most trusted and well-respected sports information company in the United States. Below you will find a list of 10 tips for finding an NFL best bet each week from 10 of the top NFL Football handicapping experts in the country. Our service is second-to-none in terms of both results and customer relations. With nearly 50 years of handicapping experience, Doc's Sports is the gold standard in the sports information industry.
We offer our clients top NFL Football predictions at one fair price. Our NFL Football handicappers release a full slate of NFL Football picks at 6 p.m. EST each Thursday throughout the season. Every one of our NFL Football handicappers has a different style, but all have enjoyed vast success, including putting up some big numbers with their weekly best bets and top games, available every week for just $30 apiece.
Here are 10 tips from our NFL handicappers on how to find an NFL best bet each week:
DOC'S SPORTS – An NFL best bet for me is a team that is coming off an embarrassing performance the week before. All NFL players are paid professionals and have pride and do not like to be blown out on television. Therefore, I like to play a team that got blown out the week before. The oddsmakers usually inflate the spread because they public saw how bad they looked the week prior. An example of this from 2016 is a Week 2 game between Seattle and Los Angeles. The Rams opened up on Monday Night Football at San Francisco and lost 28-0 in embarrassing fashion. They were a +5.5-point home underdog the following week against Seattle and won that game straight up by a score of 9-3.
ROBERT FERRINGO – When I am handicapping, regardless of sport, I think it is important not to just look at what happened but why and how it happened. There are so many misleading scores in the NFL each week that it is crucial to go back and re-watch games and analyze box scores to find those "hidden plays" that may have had an outsized impact on a game. There are also several statistics that I use that correlate total yardage, yardage differential, scoring and both ATS and over/under performance. And when I see statistical outliers I just know that a best bet is coming. In 2021 my Game of the Year was the 'Over' 39.5 in the Atlanta-New Orleans Week 18 game. The reasoning was simple: in the three previous weeks both teams' goal-to-go offensive and defensive numbers were way out of whack. They were both leaving a ton of points on the field and both were due for a breakout. The result was 30 points in the first half and an easy cover in a 30-20 game. You can't just look at final scores. You have to analyze how games play out. And that will help you determine what results are legit and which ones were flukes. Then bet the next week accordingly.
RAPHAEL ESPARZA - What I have noticed in the NFL both behind the counter and now in front of the counter is that your NFL best bets should be on hot teams until they are no longer hot. Ask any Vegas or online sportsbook director, and in 2016 the books struggled with the New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders repeatedly covering point spreads. And I'm not even talking about moneyline parlays, teasers, and the hot teams that covered the totals. Normally the NFL oddsmakers are really good on Sunday, but every year there is between 1-3 teams that every Sunday the books do not want to see win and cover games. Find out those teams and ride them and you will cash straight bets, moneyline parlays and of course your top plays of the week.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS - A handicapper doesn't want to try to find a best bet each and every week because they just aren't always there. Strike Point Sports prides itself on careful, strategic selections, and this proves beneficial when finding the "big play" or "best bet of the week". We tend to lean towards a home team that is getting less than three points. In many cases when two teams are even, oddsmakers will lay out a field goal spread on the home team. When they set the line less than that there is value to be had, especially if it is a team that plays well in front of their home fans. Keep an eye out for the "short home favorite" in the NFL when you're looking for a best bet. We all know the normal 3-point line on a home team, but we don't all realize the value on the short chalk. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
GRIFFIN MURPHY - NFL Best Bets come with strategy and patience. As bettors, we must always pay attention to the opening line. Then always check injury reports. Very often, you will find players are all in some form of injury and are questionable to play. When this occurs, it's a great sign to capitalize. There are very high probabilities in the NFL that when a player is questionable early in the week that he will in fact suit up and play. These are the line shifts that we must take advantage of at an early time. There is always opportunity, you just have to hunt it out.
JASON SHARPE - The NFL regular season is much shorter compared to the other major professional sports leagues. Because of this NFL handicappers tend to place way too much weight on the final scores of each contest. The betting public loves to jump on an NFL team that's had success early on in the NFL season against the point spread and because of that they will likely inflate the point spread for these teams going forward. There's a very simple trend you could have blindly played in the NFL over the last 10+ years and in doing so you would have posted a very strong positive 8% ROI overall. Starting from the fifth week of year to the end of the regular season look for a team that has covered the point spread by 5+ points or more as a per game average. If you find such a team you want to bet against them in their following game. Here's how to do this: Let's say it's Week 6 and San Francisco has outscored their first five opponents by a combined 60 points on the season which means on average they are +12 points per game overall. Second, then look at what the average point spread in a 49ers game has been this season so far. Let's say the Niners were favored by - 7 points in game one, -5 in game two, -4 in game three, -1 in game four and they were +2-point underdogs in game five. You add up all these five numbers:( -7 + -5 + -4 + -1 and + +2) which equals -15 points and divide that number (-15) by the number 5 (overall games played) meaning the 49ers on average have been favored to win by 3 points per game over their opponents this season. Now compare the two numbers. To sum it up: the Niners have won by an average of 12 points per game this season and they've done so in their five overall games in which they were favored on average by just 3 points per game. So on average the Niners have outperformed the point spread by an average of +9 points per game overall. That +9 point per game DIFFERENTIAL is greater than the +5 per game or higher average per game differential that's needed to qualify as a play here meaning you want to bet against the 49ers in their upcoming week 6 game. The NFL betting markets and the public have shown long-term wise they will likely over inflate the point spread on these types of teams in their next game due to these team's overall success on the season against the spread. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
DOUG UPSTONE - The methodology I use is by starting to create a point spread based on three power ratings. They all have various components, designed to cover different aspects of the teams in a particular contest. Next, is the statistical advantages one team might have over another, particularly at quarterback, running the ball, stopping the run and rushing the opposing quarterback. If those show up as more one-way edges and match my power rankings, I move to the next step. That would be finding systems I have developed and looking to find more evidence of a Best Bet, and specifically I'm after ones that have a 75 percent or higher cover rate and with a minimum of 30-game outcomes and the scoring average rather easily covers the spread. Up next is reviewing situational aspects that are team specific, which often can be nuggets of extremely useful information. The cherry on the top of the cake is looking at line movement or the lack of it in the first part of the week. If the power ratings are strong, the stats are in my favor, a system or two lights up, and the situation is nicely favorable on a NFL contest that is not on everyone's radar to start a week, that is what I'm looking for in a Best Bet! Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
VERNON CROY- A best bet for me in the NFL must fall into one of my top systems. I almost always want to see a line where I feel there is exceptional value. So say the Bears are favored by three points and my analytics have them winning by 14 points, then there is exceptional line value with the Bears at -3 since the line is off by 11 points. Generally, I also want the top play to be going against public perception, as there is added value, especially in the NFL. I want all top plays to have a high percentage of winning regardless of the sport. I have been very successful in the NFL with my top plays because of my 20+ years of experience, and I learn from my losses and build on wins.
TONY GEORGE – More so than other sports, you bet numbers in the NFL, not games. In all sports the number is important. However, the NFL system I use is power ratings measured against the Las Vegas line based on numerous criteria. When I have an overlay against the spread of more than 3 points or higher, then I will make it my NFL best bet of the weekend. Any numbers bigger than that, which is very rare, I will double or triple up the normal wager for a top play. I try and avoid fall numbers (numbers a game is likely to land on) like 3-6-7 for instance when laying points and also like to tease through key numbers with two team teasers. It is ALL about the line numbers and power ratings in the NFL. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation
AUGUST YOUNG – When it comes to betting on the NFL - understanding how the oddsmakers and market adjust to public perception is a critical factor in my success, especially early in the season. For example, teams that start the season 0-2 ATS are 55% ATS in week 3 for a +8.2% ROI (dating back to 2005). This improves to 60% ATS for a +17.1% ROI when the team is also 0-2 SU. We can push this even further; when their opponent is 2-0 ATS, this improves to 66.7% ATS for a +30.3% ROI with an average cover margin of 2.45 points. This is a perfect example of the market overreacting to what teams are perceived as either good or bad. I've given away a golden nugget there, but I don't mind, as this is just one of many examples that come up throughout the course of the season. Combining this knowledge with extensive research can yield fantastic results, especially when you can discern your biggest edges accurately. That's where my picks truly shine - for example, last season, I managed to go a perfect 4-0 with my 8-Unit Game of the Year Football Selections for +3,200. Best of luck this season!
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