NFL Totals Betting: Week 2 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 9/11/2013
We are only one week into the new NFL season and the oddsmakers are already in top form setting the “over/under” line with a perfect 8-8 record in Week 1. I survived with a 2-1 record on last week’s picks thanks to Chip Kelly’s new offense in Philly.
Each and every week during the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into all the matchups to uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on a couple of bad numbers on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 2 based on lines by BetOnline.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 44
Quarterback Brandon Weeden had to earn back his starting job with Rob Chudzinski taking over as the Browns’ new head coach. And even though he said that the second-year vet will not be on a short leash, last week’s performance against Miami has to raise concerns. Cleveland managed just 10 points, and Weeden was picked off three times.
The Ravens’ new-look defense just looked bad against Denver, but that would be the case with most teams in the league. While it allowed seven Peyton Manning touchdown throws last Thursday, look for that number to be drastically reduced with Weeden throwing the ball.
The total line for this game opened at 42 and shot right up to 44 most likely due to Baltimore’s ability to put points on the board. Given that the Browns’ defense did not look all that bad against Miami last week and that the total has stayed under in the last five meetings in this series, I am going to take advantage of the line jump and go in the opposite direction of the betting public in this matchup.
Game Pick: UNDER
Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 49.5
If Washington simply throws out the first two quarters of tape in last week’s 33-27 loss to Philadelphia, it will find that it did not play all that bad. Robert Griffin III suffered from some serious rust in the first half of that game but finished the night with 329 passing yards and two touchdowns while completing more than 60 percent of his throws.
Green Bay’s problem in last Sunday’s 34-28 loss to San Francisco had nothing to do with finding the end zone, with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 333 yards and three scores. It was all about a defense that was torched for 494 yards of total offense, including 404 yards through the air. This was one of the Packers biggest issues last season, and so far it does look like things have not changed all that much.
The total line for this game was set at 48, and it has crept up to 49.5 on BetOnline’s latest board. This time around I have to agree with the betting public as these two quarterbacks should easily combine for six or seven touchdowns against suspect secondaries. The total has gone over in four of Washington’s last six games and in four of Green Bay’s last five, and it is going over again on Sunday afternoon.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 47
The return of Sean Payton to the Saints’ sideline after serving a year-long league suspension has paid immediate dividends with a huge opening-day victory over NFC South rival Atlanta. While Drew Brees looked sharp with 357 yards passing and two touchdowns, the real credit has to go to a defense that held Atlanta to 17 points after finishing last season ranked 31st in the NFL in points allowed.
Tampa Bay gave the game away last week against the Jets on a stupid late hit, but that does not diminish that fact that it played well on defense as well. Granted it was against a rookie quarterback, but it still kept New York out of the end zone for much of the game. The concern with this team is an offense that generated a total of 250 yards while putting just 17 points on the scoreboard.
The total line for this divisional battle opened at 47 and has held firm ever since. Given the history between these two teams as NFC South rivals, I am relying heavily on past trends for this pick, although the fact that both defenses looked good on opening day is a plus The total has stayed under in eight of the last nine meetings between the two overall and in four of the last five games played in Tampa Bay.
Game Pick: UNDER
Week 1 Record: 2-1
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