NFL Betting Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 9/22/2026

NFL betting predictions Week 3 opening line report Brock Purdy

One of the best ways to stay ahead of NFL spreads is by locking in a favorable price early in the week. It is very difficult to beat the closing number with millions of dollars wagered on either side, and an extra point or two in your favor can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Sometimes the line can move against us, but more often than not we are able to secure a great price and a winning record.

Last week, we went a perfect 3-0 against the spread. We kicked off the week with the Browns at (+8.5) over the Buccaneers, a game which they won outright after a lengthy rain delay. We weren’t afraid of big underdogs as we also took the Titans (+7) over the Eagles, and they lost by four, covering the number. Finally, we took the Patriots (-5.5) over the Steelers, and the reigning AFC champions made it look easy with a dominant 20-3 victory. Before we jump into our Week 3 NFL picks as we look to sweep in back-to-back weeks, here are the biggest storylines from a pivotal Week 2.
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New Stadium, Same Bills: The Bills got the party started early at their brand-new stadium with an early 21-0 lead that snowballed into a 41-31 victory over the Detroit Lions. Josh Allen is the frontrunner for MVP, but it will all come down to the playoffs for Buffalo.
Bengals are Back: After missing the playoffs in three straight seasons, there were real concerns surrounding Joe Burrow and the Bengals. After their 20-6 win over the Texans to move to 2-0, those whispers have slowly faded away.
On Any Given Week: After putting up 59 points last week, the Bears fell flat on their face during their 9-3 defeat at the hands of the Vikings. Caleb Williams also went down with a hamstring injury, as the Bears dropped back to reality.
Is Bryce Young Ready? The Panthers quarterback led his team to 30+ points for the second straight week, this time being on the right side of a 34-3 drubbing over the Falcons. If the Panthers defense is a top-ten unit, Carolina could be a real sleeper in the NFC.
Down Goes Daniels: The Commanders’ 2024 NFC Championship run looks like a distant memory as Jayden Daniels went down with an injury during a 37-20 loss against the Cowboys. A dislocated elbow limited him to just seven games last season, and it once again looks like he will miss considerable time. With the 0-2 Commanders hosting the reigning champions in Week 3, it might be over already for Washington.
0-17 loading? The expectations were low for Miami heading into the season, but they have gotten even worse. A 35-13 loss to the 49ers brings them to 0-2, and an incredibly shallow roster means there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Fins.
Chiefs hold on: Patrick Mahomes and company held on in overtime to take down the Colts 33-30 on Sunday Night Football. Travis Kelce looks like he has turned back the clock with 101 yards and a touchdown, while Kenneth Walker III ran for 124 yards.

Now that Week 2 is behind us, we can jump into our opening line picks for Week 3. Make sure you lock these picks in immediately, as even a tiny line movement can eat up our value. We went perfect last week, can we do it again?

Game 1: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)

The 49ers are more than touchdown favorites over the Cardinals in Week 3, and I expect this spread to climb to double digits before kickoff. The Cardinals came back down to Earth after getting smacked by the Seahawks last week, and I am expecting a similar result here. Jacoby Brissett has had a decade to prove he is a capable starter, and has fallen short, while there isn’t enough talent elsewhere on the roster to overcome subpar quarterback play. The Cardinals defense is a bottom-ten unit, their offense has some pieces, but no consistency, and it looks like their Week 1 upset over the Chargers was nothing more than a mirage. Across the field, we have the 49ers, who are firing on all cylinders. San Francisco has outscored their opponents 62-20 through the first two weeks, and another big win is on the cards here. Brock Purdy looks poised, Christian McCaffrey isn’t being asked to do it all in the backfield, and the 49ers defense looks as good as ever. As long as they don’t take their foot off the gas with a big lead in the second half, which they didn’t against Miami last week, the 49ers will move to 3-0 on the season with a third straight blowout.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)

Game 2: Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Opening Line: New Orleans Saints (-3)

Both of these teams have looked great to start the season, but only one of these franchises' dream starts can continue in Week 3. The Raiders are a perfect 2-0 with an upset over the Chargers and a win over Miami, while the Saints are 1-1 after losing in overtime to the Lions and beating the Ravens. Even though New Orleans ultimately fell short against Detroit, they have the stronger roster heading into this matchup. Tyler Shough has started to prove that he is a high upside quarterback for the Saints, and a very strong defense allows him to stay as patient as he physically can on offense. Travis Etienne was the perfect backfield addition in the offseason, while Devaugh Vele and Barion Brown are starting to make waves at receiver. This offense is explosive, and the defense is rock solid. Sure, Kirk Cousins and the Raiders were able to pick apart the Dolphins and the Chargers, but both are winless and this is a much tougher test. Cousins knows his starting job is far from secure, and it is not as if the Raiders defense made meaningful offseason moves after a disastrous season last year. Things can change quickly in the NFL, but as of now, the Saints are more equipped to emerge as a legitimate contender out of their rebuild. The line is at a flat -3 right now, which is a crucial number in the NFL, so let’s lock it in before we have to potentially pay for the hook.

Pick: New Orleans Saints (-3)

Game 3: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

We are either going to look like a genius or a fool for this pick, but this is exactly the kind of risk we have to take to try and secure closing line value. Caleb Williams went down with a hamstring injury in the Bears 9-3 loss last week, and is questionable to play in Week 3. This line could balloon as high as -6.5 if Williams is unable to go, but will almost certainly drop below the crucial -3 margin closer to a pick ‘em if he plays. Williams was initially expected to be out for significant time with this injury, but he avoided anything serious and could be back as soon as this week. Even if he is good to go, will the Bears risk their franchise quarterback just one week after hurting a delicate muscle? I don’t think so. Williams is the guy that they will build this franchise around, and it would be foolish to risk reaggravating his injury for not only this year, but for the longer term against the Eagles. I can’t say I am a big fan of how Philadelphia has looked this season, but a strong Eagles’ defense will be able to chew up Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum. We are banking on Williams not playing, but even if he does, the Eagles will still have a chance to win and cover on the road.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Season Record: 4-2

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Start:	September 22, 2026 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Craig Trapp
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Best Bets

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