NFL Week 5 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis

by Jeremy Block - 10/7/2026

NFL Week 5 line movements Cam Ward Tennessee Titans

Making money on the NFL this season has been hit or miss, and a lot of that comes down to how fast things change from one Sunday to the next. A starting quarterback goes down or a team gets embarrassed on national TV, and by Wednesday the spread looks nothing like the one bettors saw a week earlier.

A handful of Week 5 games have taken big jumps since the lines came out, and two of them have flipped favorites entirely. I'm here to get you ahead of those shifts before kickoff, with why each of these four spreads moved and where your money should go. Let's get into it.

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Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons (Ravens -6 to Falcons -3.5)

Another week of football down, and once again, another starting quarterback is hurt, with Baltimore possibly entering Week 5 without Lamar Jackson after he sprained his ankle against Tennessee.

With the Ravens potentially missing their starting quarterback, Vegas had no choice but to drop this spread dramatically and flip it from Baltimore -6 to Atlanta -3.5. The Ravens may be the better team when fully healthy, but this is not a Falcons team to sleep on, with Michael Penix Jr. running the show and Bijan Robinson, arguably the best running back in the NFL right now, helping score 45 points on the Saints Monday night.

If Jackson is still out for this one, back Atlanta for a third straight win. If Jackson is active, stay away from this game, because this could be a shootout.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (Texans -3.5 to Texans -7)

Somebody in Houston must have finally found the playbook, because the Texans' offense showed life for the first time this season in Week 4, putting up 30 points against Dallas after scoring just six against Cincinnati back in Week 2. It still wasn't enough in a 34-30 loss at home, but Vegas liked what it saw and pushed this spread from Houston -3.5 to -7 against a Titans team that's also still looking for its first win.

Winless or not, the Texans are a tier above Tennessee without a doubt, and I'm comfortable laying the seven here.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (Packers -2.5 to Bears -3)

Arguably the most famous rivalry in football gets a strange twist this week, with the Bears walking into Lambeau Field as the favorite. Chicago has won three games with three different quarterbacks, while Green Bay hasn't looked anything like last season's team, playing without Josh Jacobs in the backfield with an offense that still isn't in sync, so Vegas flipped this line from Packers -2.5 to Bears -3.

A couple of wins are on the Packers' resume, and none of them have been dominant, but this is their chance to make a statement at home and cover the points. I like the Packers here.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars in London (Jaguars -3.5 to Jaguars -5.5)

No team has played more games in London than Jacksonville since 2013, so the Jaguars are basically playing a home game away from home. Familiar surroundings help, but they aren't the reason this spread moved, since the Jags took down New England and Cincinnati, forcing the spread to change from -3.5 to -5.5.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, is still trying to figure out how it let a 10-point lead against the Rams disappear in the final four minutes. Look, the Eagles' offense still looks patchy, playing without Saquon Barkley hurts as well, and neutral field or not, the hotter team should be the one laying points. I'm comfortable taking Jacksonville at -5.5.

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Start:	October 7, 2026 @ 9:05 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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NFL Week 5 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis

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