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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 5 Opening Line Report and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 10/6/2026

NFL betting predictions Week 5 opening line report Jared Goff

One of the most effective ways to consistently win on the NFL mainlines is to secure closing line value. The spreads right before kickoff are often incredibly sharp with millions of dollars on either side, but that is not always the case earlier in the week. By locking in our picks now, we can improve our chances at staying ahead as even a single point of movement in our favor can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we went 1-2 on our picks. We took the Commanders to cover against the Colts in London, but a first quarter injury to Marcus Mariota derailed their game plan. We got back on track with the 49ers (-2.5) against the Broncos, but ended the week in the red when the Lions lost to the Panthers on Sunday Night Football. Before we get into a tantalizing slate of Week 5 picks, here are the biggest takeaways from Week 4 around the league. 

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  • Browns on top?! The Cleveland Browns pulled off a gutsy win against the Steelers to move to 3-1 and now sit on top of the AFC North. There is plenty of football to be played, but a strong defense and an improving Watson has Cleveland looking the best they have in decades. 
  • Alarm Bells in Houston: The Texans started the year 0-3 last season before winning 12 of their final 14 regular season games to make the playoffs. After their 34-30 defeat at the hands of the Cowboys, Houston is now 0-4 and an even bigger long shot to make the postseason. 
  • Chiefs stay Perfect: It was a battle between two undefeated teams when the Chiefs took a trip to Las Vegas, with Mahomes and company keeping their flawless record intact. Two touchdowns from Kenneth Walker in the final four minutes gave the Chiefs a late fourth quarter lead, as the new arrival has now put up 134 rushing yards per game since joining the Chiefs. 
  • Panthers are roaring: Carolina got their first Sunday Night Football win in a decade when they topped Detroit, and now sit 2-2 for a share of the NFC South lead. Bryce Young is looking composed on offense, their defense bent but didn’t break, and a wide-open division means a .500 record could send them right back to the playoffs. 
  • Falcons are soaring: Atlanta looked like the worst team in the league after the first two weeks of the season, but how times have changed. Their latest primetime drubbing over the Saints was dominant from start to finish. They have now outscored their opponents by a combined 80-38 since Michael Penix Jr. got healthy, and the division is theirs for the taking. 

Now that Week 4 is behind us, it is time to dive into the Week 5 picks. The bye weeks have started, but we still have 15 matchups to choose from as we look to get back on track. Make sure you lock these picks in immediately, as there is no guarantee these odds will be available when kickoff rolls around. 

Game 1: Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars in London, England

Opening Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

The Jaguars and Eagles face off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with plenty to play for at this stage of the season. The Jaguars are coming off a big win against the Bengals as they look to prove they are legitimate AFC contenders, while the Eagles went toe-to-toe with the Rams but dropped to 2-2 with the defeat. Jacksonville is a worthy favorite in this matchup, but a spread at nearly a touchdown is a bit too wide. Trevor Lawrence has looked fantastic this season, but lighting up the scoreboard against the Browns, Patriots, and Bengals is not exactly an incredible feat. Philadelphia’s defense is a proven unit with the perfect blend of young and old on their roster, and I expect them to give Lawrence problems. On the other side of the ball, I am not too convinced in the Eagles offense either on the ground or through the air, but a sturdy offensive line will allow them to occasionally move the sticks. This spread has been inflated by the Saquon Barkley injury, so we will plug our nose and scoop up the points. 

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) 

Game 2: Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

The Steelers and Colts have both gotten off to 2-2 starts, but I am only impressed with one of these units. Pittsburgh’s offense has looked competent in flashes, but they fail to string together successive strong possessions. It is only a matter of time before Aaron Rodgers starts to fade even further into oblivion, and an unforgiving Colts defense is a prime candidate to make him consider an early retirement. Indianapolis is excellent at taking away throws underneath, which is Rodgers best bet at this stage of his career. They held their opponents to just 15 PPG across the last two weeks, and went down to the wire against the still-undefeated Chiefs the week before, which makes this line a tad disrespectful. Pittsburgh does have home field advantage, but their defense is not the unit it once was, and there are arguments that the Colts might actually be better on both sides of the ball. Once you add in a couple of points on the spread, the Colts are the way to go in this one. 

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

Game 3: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals 

Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-4.5)

It is hard to call this a ‘do or die’ game for a 2-2 team at this stage of the season, but things could quickly spiral out of control if the Lions get upset in Arizona. Detroit’s offense is looking consistent, but their lack of defensive support has cost them victories this season. Jared Goff is having a great year with nine touchdowns without an interception and more than 300 passing yards per game. However, none of that matters when the Lions are losing games where they put up 26 and 31 points. Across the field, the Cardinals are far from a strong defensive team, and it feels very unlikely that they remotely slow down Detroit. The Lions defense is floundering, but Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals offense is still building chemistry, and isn’t the type of unit capable of running up the score. Now Jeremiyah Love is hurt, taking away any explosiveness in the Cardinals backfield, making it even harder to imagine them keeping up. I am not quite ready to throw in the towel on Detroit, and this looks like a spread that could widen before kickoff. 

Pick: Detroit Lions (-4.5)

Season Record: 5-7

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