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NFL Week 3 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis

by Jeremy Block - 9/23/2026

NFL Week 3 line movements Jordan Love Green Bay Packers

Week 2 gave Vegas plenty to think about, and the early part of this week was spent rewriting spreads because of it. Two starting quarterbacks went down, a couple of teams showed cracks nobody expected heading into the season, and the lines and odds look completely different than they did on Monday morning.

Four games saw their spreads move at least a full point, with one of them flipping sides entirely. A couple are worth backing, and a couple are worth leaving alone completely. Here is what happened with each one and what you should do about it.

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (Bears -1.5 to Eagles -3.5)

Chicago went from -1.5 at home to +3.5, and it all traces back to a hamstring strain that knocked Caleb Williams out in Week 2. Now backup Tyson Bagent gets the start against a Philadelphia defense on Monday night, which is a brutal way to begin a season.

Even with how sloppy the Birds looked against the Titans, -3.5 does not feel like enough to me. Philadelphia should be winning this by a touchdown against a team missing its starting quarterback, so I am taking the Eagles and moving on.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants (Giants -6 to Giants -3.5)

Two and a half points came off this line in a matter of days once word got out that Jaxson Dart is dealing with a sprained MCL and may be facing season-ending surgery. Jameis Winston steps in for New York, and Vegas clearly still thinks the Giants should give Tennessee a learning lesson.

Bettors should leave this spread alone though. Cam Ward is coming off a decent start in Week 2 and kept it close against Philadelphia, while Winston is making his first start of the season. Three and a half in a game that should come down to a field goal either way is not worth touching. 

Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos (Rams -2.5 to Rams -1.5)

A team that just handled the Giants on Monday night without much problem should be getting more respect from Vegas, not less. However, playing at Mile High Stadium is never fun for any team, especially one from Los Angeles.

Denver at home is fully capable of stomping anybody, though Matthew Stafford throwing for 300 and the Rams offense putting on another show is just as believable. There is no edge in a game that could swing either direction, so leave this spread alone.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (Packers -7.5 to Packers -5.5)

Nobody expected the Packers to need a late stop to survive the Jets, and a win that ugly did them no favors with Josh Jacobs still sidelined and an offensive line banged up on top of it. Throw in Atlanta getting Michael Penix Jr. back under center instead of Cooper Rush, and the two-point drop starts to make sense. 

Green Bay is still the better team here though, and after two straight weeks on the road, the Packers finally get their home opener. Penix is not the answer Atlanta needs to keep this one close, so laying the five and a half with Green Bay is a no-brainer. 

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