College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/2/2014
It was another brilliant start for the Ferringo 15, which went 11-4 the opening week of the season. However, two of those losses were actually to other teams in the F-15 (Cal-Northwestern and Georgia Southern -N.C. State). So the teams on our list actually went 9-2 against unique opponents, a fantastic 81.8 percent winning mark to start the year.
That also runs the Ferringo 15's record over the last three years to 162-105 against the spread. That is a documented 60.7 percent system for 267 plays. And that is phenomenal.
Last week our KING College Betting System went 2-0, winning with Mississippi and Georgia, and ran its mark to 85-58 over the past three seasons. That is an equally fantastic 59.4 percent success rate.
Generally it takes a few weeks for the F-15 to really find its footing, though, and there are generally some pretty wild swings during the first three or four weeks caused by overreactions in the market. But we are long-term thinkers here, and we'll look for another strong week out of our set of top value teams.
For the uninitiated, the Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived "value" of the teams on the list.
Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public's expectations for them change.
Here is this week's Ferringo 15 College Football Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Rutgers (1-0 Against The Spread) - Nothing like an outright underdog winner for the top team in the F-15. Rutgers won a thriller in Seattle over Washington State, and now they return home to face cupcake Howard. The Bison were just embarrassed 41-0 at Akron, and it could be even worse in Piscataway this weekend. I expect the Scarlet Knights to be posted as at least a 31-point favorite against this Howard team, whom they only beat 26-0 back in 2012. Also to keep in mind: the Scarlet Knights could let down after their win over the Cougars and also have a huge Big Ten home opener against Penn State on deck next week.
2. California (1-0) - I pegged the Golden Bears as a team to watch, and they made a statement with a revenge win over Northwestern. They will host Sacramento State this weekend, and I don't expect Cal to take it easy in this tune-up game. The Golden Bears have a bye week on deck. And when you're coming off a 1-11 season and have gone 4-20 the past two years you generally don't take wins for granted and you don't miss a chance to blow out a weaker opponent. Cal is 10-2 in home openers with the average win by 33 points. They are 5-0 in their last five games against FCS teams, winning by 52, 49, 51, 19 and seven points.
3. Maryland (1-0) - I actually dropped the Terps in the rankings despite a dominating 52-7 win over patsy James Madison last week. The reason is simple: the Terps are a 12-point road favorite against South Florida this weekend. Yes, the Bulls have been a disaster the last two seasons and are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 nonconference games. But being installed as a double-digit road chalk against an AAC team tells me the Terps aren't exactly flying under the radar. On top of that, nearly 80 percent of the early action this week is coming down on Maryland.
4. Akron (1-0) - I was hoping the Zips would be catching closer to 20 points against Penn State this weekend. The Nittany Lions are in a letdown spot after their emotional last-second win over Central Florida in Ireland last weekend. Remember: Akron nearly took down Michigan in The Big House last year, and they won't be scared of a trip up the road to Happy Valley.
5. Georgia (1-0) - The Bulldogs are riding high after their convincing 45-21 win over Clemson last week. They have a bye as they prepare for a crucial SEC East showdown with South Carolina next Saturday.
6. North Carolina State (0-1) - The Wolf Pack moved up a slot in the rankings despite losing ATS last week. Why? Because N.C. State's 24-23 win (but no cover) against Georgia Southern was somewhat understandable, since GSU is another underrated opponent. N.C. State has failed to cover six straight games going back to last year, and they are just a 16-point favorite this week versus overmatched Old Dominion. ODU gave Pitt a good game last year (losing 35-24), but they also lost 80-20 (not a misprint) at North Carolina last November.
7. Memphis (1-0) - This is another team that I actually dropped in the rankings despite an overwhelming 63-0 blowout win last week. I thought Memphis would be a 30-point underdog against an overvalued UCLA team this weekend. But the Tigers are sitting there at +24 and are getting steady two-way action. Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four nonconference games, and they are 5-2 ATS on the road. However, they are just 1-11 ATS when they play on grass.
8. Texas-San Antonio (1-0) - This is yet another team on our list that pulled an outright upset as a significant underdog last week. The Roadrunners went on the road and took down in-state rival Houston, and now they get a rare primetime Thursday home game against a Pac-12 opponent. UTSA is just a touchdown home underdog against Arizona this week. These two met last season, with Arizona jumping out to a 31-6 lead en route to a 38-13 victory in Tucson. UTSA is 8-1 ATS in its last nine nonconference games, and Arizona is just 2-10 SU in its last 12 road openers.
9. Mississippi State (1-0) - The Bulldogs' 49-0 shutout of Southern Miss went under the radar last week because all the national attention was focused elsewhere in the SEC. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in six straight games dating back to last year. I worry that their value is actually fading as a result. Mississippi State is a 28.5-point favorite against an improved UAB team this weekend. The Blazers lost by just 28 at Vanderbilt last season and by just 15 at Ohio State in 2012. However, they also lost by 39 at LSU in 2013 and by 43 at South Carolina in 2012, so they are tough to peg. UAB is 3-0 ATS in this series dating back to 2007, with the last meeting coming in 2011 (21-3, Bulldogs).
10. Air Force (1-0) - It was a slow start for the Falcons, who were tied 9-9 in the second quarter against Nicholls State last week. They dominated from there, though, and barely covered in a 44-16 victory. Now the Falcons hit to the road to face a Wyoming team that laced them 56-23 last year. Surprisingly, Air Force is a 'pick'em' this week. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings and 3-7 ATS in the last 10. This has been a tricky series to peg. The home team has won seven of the last nine outright, but the road team is actually 11-5 ATS when these teams meet.
11. Louisiana-Lafayette (1-0) - The Rajun Cajuns looked sharp in their opening win over Southern. This week they will have to gear up for an in-state foe, Louisiana Tech, whom they haven't faced in a decade. This is actually the 86th meeting between these teams, and Tech has not lost since 1996. Louisiana Tech covered the spread in a 48-16 loss at Oklahoma last week. Although Lafayette is clearly the better team and a healthy 12.5-point favorite, I will not be surprised if this one turns into a dog fight.
12. Georgia Southern (1-0) - The Eagles threw a scare into N.C. State last week. But now they will play a non-lined game against Savannah State this weekend. Georgia Southern beat Sav State 77-9 last year, so I would be surprised if they mustered anything less than a 40-point win.
13. Northwestern (0-1) - The Wildcats lost by 17 points against the spread in Week 1, falling by a touchdown as a 10-point favorite against Cal. However, I'll give them another week to prove that they aren't total busts this year. The Wildcats face a very explosive Northern Illinois team this week. NIU dominated in a 55-3 win over Presbyterian last week, and the Huskies, who went 12-2 last year, won at Iowa and at Purdue last season. In fact, NIU is 4-0 ATS the past two years against teams from BCS conferences. Northwestern is favored by less than a touchdown (-5.5) this week, and they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. At some point they need to accidentally cover a spread.
14. North Carolina (0-1) - It was an ugly opener for the Tar Heels, who actually trailed Liberty in the third quarter (22-21) before feeling off a 35-7 run. But the fact that the Heels were even capable of such a burst gives me some hope. The Heels will host San Diego State this weekend. The Aztecs haven't been on the East Coast in over 20 years. But the evening kickoff (8 p.m. local) takes away some of UNC's advantage. The Tar Heels are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
15. Syracuse (0-1) - It is tough to have confidence in a team that needed a game-winning touchdown pass from the punter (on a fake field goal in OT, no less) against an FCS opponent. But I'll let Syracuse hang around for one more week. Orange quarterback Terrell Hunt was ejected early in that game, and that really turned the tide against SU's old Big East rival. Syracuse has a week off before a road trip to Central Michigan.
Honorable Mention: Connecticut, Kansas, Arkansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Washington, TCU, Iowa State, Army, Cincinnati, Houston
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Robert Ferringo was the top football handicapper in the country last year, earning nearly $8,000 in total football profit in 2014-14 and posting one of the best seasons in America. He hit 62.1 percent for the entire NFL season (95-58) and was amazing down the stretch, closing with 11 of 14 winning NFL weeks and 12 of 15 overall winning football weeks. Robert has posted 3 of 4 winning football seasons, 6 of 7 winning NFL seasons, 30 of 44 winning football months, and 6 of 7 winning NFL preseasons. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System posted another winning season (now 2-for-2) and is 83-58 over the last two years (58.9 percent).
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