NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos

by Alan Matthews - 10/29/2015

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning

It's arguably the game of the 2015 regular season in Denver on Sunday night when the unbeaten Packers visit the unbeaten Broncos in a potential Super Bowl preview. It's only the fourth meeting of 6-0 teams in league history and first since 2007. It's also the first ever in prime time. So expect huge ratings and betting action at the various sportsbooks.

Barring a rematch in Santa Clara in Super Bowl 50, it's also the last time that future Hall of Famers Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning will square off. Manning right now has to go down as the greatest regular-season quarterback ever with several NFL records under his belt, including five MVP Awards. This is expected to be his final season. But who knows what kind of things Rodgers, a two-time MVP, might accomplish when he's done. He will be only 32 in December. Rather amazingly, these two have faced off just once in a game that matters: 2008, when Manning was in Indy and Rodgers his first year as Green Bay's starter.

Plus, these guys are great pitchmen! Both have done national commercials for car companies (Manning: Buick, Rodgers: Ford), pizza (Manning: Papa John's, Rodgers: Pizza Hut) and insurance, where Manning sings in Nationwide ads while Rodgers is the Discount Double Check guy for State Farm. Manning is the greatest pitchman in NFL history, plus he had one of the great "Saturday Night Live" appearances of any athlete ever. He wins that battle. But Rodgers has the famous (and super hot) girlfriend.

At BetOnline , Green Bay is the +250 second-favorite to be the final unbeaten team standing with Denver last at +1600. That the Pack go 16-0 is +1000 and the Broncos are again the long shots at +4000 on that prop. The Pack are +125 heavy favorites to win the NFC and the Broncos +550 third-favorites in the AFC.

Packers at Broncos Betting Story Lines

I would argue Green Bay can afford to lose this more because the Broncos are a shaky 6-0 and in the same conference with the powerhouse Patriots and excellent Cincinnati Bengals. Denver does play both of them during the season. The Packers appear to be the class of the NFC even though Carolina is also 6-0; those two play in Charlotte next Sunday. With Seattle off to a 3-4 start, I don't see how the Packers aren't the No. 1 seed with all due respect to the Panthers.

Manning is not having a good season, his worst since his 1998 rookie campaign. He's completing just 61.6 percent for 1,524 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 picks for a rating of 72.5. That latter number is 31st in the NFL, ahead of only Ryan Mallett, who is now out of work. Rodgers is having another stellar year and is the +200 second-favorite on Bovada (behind Tom Brady) to win a third MVP. Rodgers is completing 68.1 percent for 1,491 yards, 15 TDs, two picks and a rating of 115.9. All but the yards are among the league leaders.

I know this game is all about the quarterbacks, but it might be a defensive battle. Green Bay is No. 1 in scoring defense (16.8 ppg) and Denver tied for second (17.0 ppg). The Broncos are also No. 1 in total defense, No. 1 in sacks (26) and No. 2 in takeaways (17). It does look like the Broncos will get pass-rushing linebacker DeMarcus Ware back this week after missing one game. Green Bay is No. 4 in opponent passer rating (73.4) and tied for sixth in interceptions (eight).

As for the most recent meeting between the teams, it really doesn't matter because it was in 2011, before Manning joined the Broncos. Green Bay won that game at home 49-23. Rodgers had one of the best games of his career, throwing for 408 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for two scores. Kyle Orton was Denver's QB that day.

Packers at Broncos Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes , Green Bay is a 3-point favorite (-105) with a total of 45.5. On the moneyline, the Pack are -155 and Broncos +135. On the alternate lines, Green Bay is -3.5 (+120), -2.5 (-130) and -2 (-135). The Packers are 5-1 against the spread this season (2-0 on road) and 2-4 "over/under" (1-1 on road). Denver is 4-2 ATS (1-1 at home) and 2-4 O/U (0-2 at home).

Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its past seven after a win. It is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 following a bye week. The Pack are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 November games. Denver is 5-0 ATS in its past five after an ATS loss. The under is 13-4 in Denver's past 17 at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The under is 8-3 in the Broncos' past 11 following a win.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos Predictions

This is only the second time the Broncos have been home dogs under Manning. In 2012, his first season in Denver, Manning was coming off a shaky Monday night Week 2 loss in Atlanta where he threw three picks. People still weren't sure how healthy he was off missing 2011 following neck surgery. Denver was a 1.5-point home dog against the Texans in Week 3 and Houston did win 31-25. The Broncos have one regular-season home loss since (2013 to San Diego).

Both teams are off the bye so no advantage there. Green Bay hasn't been tremendous in its two road wins (Bears and 49ers). But Denver hasn't looked great in its two home wins (Ravens and Vikings). Tough one to call. I'll take the 3.5 points and go over.

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