College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Sept. 26-27
Another week of football and another week of sportsbooks and football bettors having different opinions. That's the beauty of sports betting, we can have different opinions, and in about three hours we find out who is right or wrong.
We’ve lined up three college and three pro football contests that have seen significant line moves, explaining what is going on and who might cover the spread. Please take a look and see if you agree or disagree and let’s have fun.
CFB – (395) FLORIDA STATE at (396) MIAMI-FL 12:00 ET ABC
The total in this Sunshine State rivalry really took a tumble, down four points to 53.5, according to the college football odds. What gives? Though Miami’s stop troops conceded 34 points to Louisville, their defense is still highly thought of. Florida State might have changed coaches again. However, their offense continues to look lackluster. I was impressed with the Canes QB D’Eriq King last week in the new offense. Still, Florida State brought back 10 defensive players. And though they might not have the talent of those from the Bobby Bowden era, they are better than what we’ve seen from the Noles the last few years. Though this game doesn’t have near the importance of years past, to the players it’s still a big deal. I’m backing a lower score, and my case is further made by FSU 7-0 Under in road games after a loss by three or fewer points and Miami at 8-1 Under after playing their last game away.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Under
Doug’s Take – Take Under
CFB – (405) TENNESSEE at (406) SOUTH CAROLINA 7:30 ET SECN
This total was sent out at 47 and came back all the way down to 43.5. Tennessee won their last six games last season, and there is genuine, if not guarded, enthusiasm in Knoxville about the Volunteers. Tennessee brought back 17 starters and believe last year’s turnaround will continue. South Carolina is the complete opposite; they lost five of their last six and only have 12 returning starters. Both coaches in this SEC clash have Under tendencies. However, I’m thinking the other way and like this system of mine. When the total is between 42.5 and 49 in the first month of the season and the home team (South Carolina) closed out last season with four or more losses in its last five games, the Over is 27-6 since 2016.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Under
Doug’s Take – Take Over
CFB – (411) ALABAMA at (412) MISSOURI 7:00 ET ESPN
As if Missouri’s first-year coach Eliah Drinkwitz's first game isn't challenging enough facing Alabama, Covid came calling, and 12 of his players were originally not thought to play. Tuesday, the number was reduced to seven with false-positive tests. Nonetheless, the Tigers jumped from +25.5 to +28 against the Crimson Tide. There is uncertainty about both teams, but this is what we know; Nick Saban is 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS at Bama in season openers. This makes it Roll Tide for college football picks.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Alabama
Doug’s Take – Alabama covers
NFL – (465) HOUSTON at (466) PITTSBURGH 1:00 ET CBS
This is one of the most fascinating line moves of the weekend. Houston is 0-2 and Pittsburgh is 2-0, yet, the Texans have slipped from +6 to +4 NFL odds playing in the Steel City. The thinking is Houston has faced Kansas City and Baltimore, two of the best in the AFC, and quarterback Deshaun Watson is still a stud. Maybe the six points were too many? Still, the Texans defense is soft. And if the Steelers get a working margin as the Chiefs and Ravens did, will coach Bill O’Brien’s defense be able to make stops? Let’s give the four digits.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s Take – Pittsburgh covers
NFL – (469) TENNESSEE at (470) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS
With Tennessee having allowed 30 points to Jacksonville last week and Minnesota conceding 35.5 PPG to date, the total moved up faster than Usain Bolt from 45.5 to 50 points. However, I’m not sold on the Vikings scoring a lot of points, and coach Mike Zimmer is not going to continue to allow his defense to play as poorly as it has. With Minny 6-0 Under when the total is 49.5 or higher and 13-3 Under after gaining 150 or fewer passing yards in their last game, for NFL picks I’m going below the adjusted number.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Over
Doug’s Take - Play Under
NFL – (487) GREEN BAY at (488) NEW ORLEANS 8:20 ET NBC
The Saints were like a lot of people when they went to Las Vegas, they were joyous and happy at the start and tired and crapped out by the end of the game. Drew Brees is starting to finally look his age, and with no Michael Thomas, his receiving options are not as prolific. With Green Bay scoring points like the Nuggets Jamal Murray, New Orleans is down three points as a home favorite to -3. The Packers defense remains a concern. And with the spread this low, and the Saints on an 8-0 SU and ATS run on SNF, New Orleans gets the call.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Green Bay
Doug’s Take – New Orleans covers
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