NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 17
When we were young lads and lasses, we learned how Santa Claus decided who got presents and what they were. He had a list (even checked it twice) to find out who had good behaviour and who was naughty (not THAT naughty). The good children would usually get fantastic gifts, while the rotten ones got a lump of coal. With just one day left before his big trip, let's help Santa out with his NFL teams list.
Let's start with the nice list, because these teams have earned the ribbon and bow treatment. The Seattle Seahawks sit at 12-3, already crowned kings of the NFC West and pushing hard for the top seed. Matching them at 12-3 are the New England Patriots, riding Drake Maye's breakout season and shocking the AFC East with their rise. The Chicago Bears, at 11-4, have taken control of the NFC North, while the Philadelphia Eagles have secured the East with moderately more consistent play than their NFC East brethren. The NFC West adds even more sparkle, with the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams both clinching spots. Over in the AFC, the Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and Jacksonville Jaguars round out the group. These teams have stacked wins, delivered in big moments, and spread enough holiday cheer to keep Santa's sleigh fully loaded.
But every list has its other side. The naughty group features teams that stumbled through injuries, turnovers, and plain bad luck. The Tennessee Titans lead the way toward the coal pile, drifting toward the top draft pick if the slide continues. The New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets aren't far behind, each trudging through seasons that have fans already dreaming of 2026. Then there are the heartbreakers like the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions. They began with promise, only to fade when the games mattered most.
Christmas Eve is here, and two weeks remain for Santa's final evaluations. Some teams will wake up to gifts wrapped in playoff glory. Others may find nothing but what‑ifs stuffed in their stockings.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
16 - Denver @ Kansas City (Christmas Night): Without future HOF QB Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs just lost to the then 2-12 Titans. Enough said. Winner-Denver
15 - Jacksonville @ Indianapolis: Who would have thought the Colts would end up in a similar situation as Kansas City, losing their starting QB, Daniel Jones? Jacksonville's top-ranked rush defense should slow down Jonathan Taylor and force Indy into uncomfortable passing situations. Winner-Jacksonville
14 - Cincinnati vs. Arizona: Expect fireworks here, with both defenses struggling and neither team able to run the ball. Since returning, Joe "Cool" Burrow ranks 7th in passer rating and yards, and his 10 TD passes are tied for the second most in the league. Winner-Cincinnati
13 - LA Rams @ Atlanta (MNF): The Rams have a balanced offense that ranks 2nd in passing and 5th in rushing, keeping them in the tight NFC West race. Playing for playoff seeding outweighs Atlanta's pride factor. Winner-LA Rams
12 - New England @ NY Jets: Don't worry, Greenie, another nightmare Jets season is almost over, and soon they can botch another Top 5 pick. New England cannot afford a slip-up as they are tied with Denver for home-field advantage. They are also a perfect 7-0 on the road. Winner-New England
11 - Pittsburgh @ Cleveland: If you like defense, this is your game. Pittsburgh clinches the AFC North and eliminates Baltimore with a win. The Steelers do not excel at anything, but the Browns do everything worse. Winner-Pittsburgh
10 - Tampa Bay @ Miami: Miami's resurgence fizzled with two straight losses, taking their playoff hopes with it. For teams like Tampa Bay, who cannot afford another loss, the postseason effectively starts now. Winner-Tampa Bay
09 - Green Bay vs. Baltimore (Sat. Night): Baltimore's offense is so one-dimensional that Lamar Jackson attempted only 12 passes two games ago. Both teams have similar flaws, but Green Bay is 5-0 straight up against the AFC North as a December home favorite. Winner-Green Bay
08 - Seattle @ Carolina: Carolina followed a four-game win streak with a perfect pattern of win-loss-win-loss. They won last week, so they are due for a loss. If you want a real trend, Seattle is 7-3 straight up in its last 10 against the Panthers. Winner-Seattle
07 - Dallas @ Washington (Christmas Day): One of the few games this week without playoff implications. Expect no defense. Dallas may be below .500, but they lead the league in passing and rank 5th in scoring, a bad matchup for Washington's 5th-worst scoring defense. Winner-Dallas
06 - Detroit @ Minnesota (Christmas Mid-Afternoon): Detroit mirrors Dallas with a powerful offense and shaky defense. The Lions rank 2nd in scoring and 3rd in passing. Their Christmas gift is Minnesota starting undrafted rookie Max Brosmer at QB. Winner-Detroit
05 - LA Chargers vs. Houston (Sat. Afternoon): A potential playoff preview. Houston's defense is elite, but its offense struggles. The Chargers are slightly better on offense, slightly worse on defense, and benefit from home-field advantage. Winner-LA Chargers
04 - New Orleans vs. Tennessee: Home-field advantage does not exist for Tennessee, which is 1-11 straight up in its last 12 home games. New Orleans is not great, but at least they are not reliving the bag-over-the-head era. Winner-New Orleans
03 - Philadelphia @ Buffalo: You would think the team with the best rushing attack would defend the run well. You would be wrong. Buffalo has the 3rd-worst rush defense. Philadelphia is 6-3 straight up in its last nine meetings with the Bills. Winner-Philadelphia
02 - San Francisco vs. Chicago (SNF): A heavyweight NFC matchup and possible playoff preview. This matchup favors the 49ers, who counter Chicago's 2nd-best rushing attack with a strong run defense. Winner-San Francisco
01 - LV Raiders vs. NY Giants: If this were a bowl game, it would be the Toilet Bowl sponsored by Tidy Bowl. A tie is possible. Injuries have gutted the Giants, but Las Vegas has better coaching and home-field advantage. Winner-LV Raiders
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