NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5
Week 5 is the first one that feels like a guessing game. The injury report has stopped being a footnote and started running the card. Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, so Tampa Bay is throwing a rookie in on Thursday night in Dallas. Lamar Jackson is questionable after walking off with an ankle injury. Jayden Daniels is still dealing with the elbow, and Marcus Mariota may not be much of a fallback. Saquon Barkley and Ja'Marr Chase are both in the questionable pile, which means two of the cleaner spots on the board could look different by Sunday morning.
That is the problem with a confidence pool once October hits. You are not just picking winners. You are guessing who actually plays, how limited they are, and whether the backup changes the whole number. A 12-point lean on Monday can be an 8 by Saturday, and the games you wanted to load up on are the ones sitting behind a game-time decision. Points are still getting assigned. They are just getting assigned with less conviction than they were in September.
We did come out of last week in decent shape, which helps. The card went 10-6 and put up 94 points, so we didn't miss the ones we loaded up on. Not bad when considering the state of flux and roster upheaval much of the league is going through.
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GAMES
15 points – Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield is out, and Tampa is sending a rookie into Arlington on a Thursday night at 0-4. Dallas just put up a big one in Houston. This is the cleanest favorite on the board, and it is not particularly close.
14 points – Jacksonville Jaguars over Philadelphia Eagles: London, a 3-1 home side, and an Eagles offense that may not have Saquon Barkley. Jacksonville has been stopping the run all year. Philadelphia can hang around if the receivers win outside, but the market already does not buy that.
13 points – Cincinnati Bengals over Miami Dolphins: Miami is 0-4 and has not looked like a team that can protect its own building. Cincinnati is 2-2 and has the better quarterback, even with Ja'Marr Chase in the questionable pile.
12 points – Houston Texans over Tennessee Titans: Two winless teams, and only one of them has been losing to real offenses. Tennessee has been in games and still has nothing to show for it. Houston's start has been ugly. The opponent is the softest one it has seen.
11 points – Detroit Lions over Arizona Cardinals: Detroit can score with anybody, and Arizona has not shown it can sit on a lead against a team that finishes drives.
10 points – New England Patriots over Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders' 3-1 is real, and New England has not been a scoring machine. Vegas has to play a full game on the road. That has been the harder part.
9 points – Denver Broncos over Los Angeles Chargers: This comes down to who controls the line of scrimmage. Denver is the side the rest of the card trusts more. The Chargers at home can steal it if the Broncos stall in the red zone.
8 points – Atlanta Falcons over Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson walked off with an ankle injury and is still questionable. Atlanta is the home side because of that, not because the Falcons have been dominant. If he plays and is himself, this pick is wrong. If he is limited or out, Atlanta is the right side.
7 points – Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco 49ers: Division game, and these two know each other too well for a blowout. Seattle gets the nod because it is the home team in the one game on the card between two winning clubs. A turnover flips it.
6 points – Chicago Bears over Green Bay Packers: The Bears are 3-1 and walking into Lambeau as the side to beat, which already feels backwards. Green Bay at home is never a free win for the visitor. Chicago has been the more consistent team through four weeks. That is the whole case, and it is a thin one.
5 points – Pittsburgh Steelers over Indianapolis Colts: Both are 2-2, and Pittsburgh is at home. No injury edge, no schedule edge, just a home team in a game that should stay close. Points stay low because a Colts rally is live the whole second half.
4 points – Minnesota Vikings over New Orleans Saints: Minnesota is the unbeaten team on this card and still has to go on the road. That is either a gift or a warning. New Orleans can keep it ugly.
3 points – New York Jets over Cleveland Browns: Cleveland is 3-1 and still has to win this on the road. The Jets are 1-3 and playing at home in what should be a rock fight. Somebody is going to win an ugly one.
2 points – Los Angeles Rams over Buffalo Bills: Monday night, Buffalo coming in at 3-1 with Josh Allen. Los Angeles has the building and not much else to hang this on. Either offense can win it in the last four minutes.
1 point – New York Giants over Washington Commanders: Washington is the home side with Jayden Daniels still dealing with the elbow and Mariota doubtful behind him. The Giants get the point because the quarterback situation in Washington is the messier of the two.
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