NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 4

by Joey House - 9/30/2026

I sincerely apologize for the errors in last week's article. I misreported a couple of scores and miscalculated the total points. I understand that readers rely on me to provide accurate details, and I take that responsibility seriously. I have already improved my process for verifying numbers to ensure this doesn't happen again. Thank you for your continued support and for holding me to a high standard.

Week 3 wasn't much better than the previous week. We went 8-8 again with a tally of 75 points. Part of the issue was overreacting to injured QBs. All three backup signal callers who started in Week 3 were victorious, so fading those teams after the starter went down cost points that felt easy.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Week 4 Games

16 points – Minnesota Vikings over Miami Dolphins: An 0-3 offense still hunting first down does not want this front. Minnesota has already squeezed Chicago to a field goal and Tampa to 16. Miami just laid another 10 on Kansas City after getting outscored 62 to 26 through two weeks. A dome does not hide that.

15 points – Buffalo Bills over New England Patriots: Five turnovers against the Chargers, and Buffalo is still 3-0. New England blanked Pittsburgh, then got run off the field in Jacksonville. Once Allen hits the first explosive play, this becomes a chase the Patriots haven't shown they can win on the road.

14 points – Chicago Bears over New York Jets: Monday night was the proof of concept, 27-7 over Philadelphia after a three-point dud. The Jets dropped a home overtime game to Green Bay, then lost in Detroit. One team just stayed on schedule. The other has not done it twice.

13 points – Kansas City Chiefs over Las Vegas Raiders: Three-and-oh built on flattened Miami, a sinking Chargers team, and a comeback in New Orleans is not the same test as Kansas City. The Chiefs already close drives. That Raiders script has not had to finish against an offense that does. Las Vegas has not shown it can.

12 points – Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans: Last-second field goal in Rio. Ugly. Still 2-1. Tennessee is 0-3 and could not finish at MetLife. The Titans have not shown four-quarter consistency against a defense that already forces finishes.

11 points – Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Chargers: No clean pocket in three games is a brutal starting point. Seattle is 2-1 after stealing one in Washington. The Chargers are 0-3. One explosive play from Darnold, and this becomes a road chase Los Angeles will not win.

10 points – San Francisco 49ers over Denver Broncos: Erasing 16 points at home is not the same job as winning first down on the road against a 3-0 front. The Broncos have lived on short fields and late stands. That script thins out in Santa Clara.

9 points – Detroit Lions over Carolina Panthers: Thirty-one on the Jets after 31 in Buffalo is the profile that travels on Monday night. Carolina answered the 59-point opener, then lost a one-score game in Cleveland. Detroit scores in bunches. The Panthers have not done the ugly-and-win thing twice against this offense.

8 points – Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Two of 17 on third down is not a sleeping giant. Tampa is 0-3 and has not stayed on schedule for four quarters against anyone that can score first. Green Bay is beat up after Atlanta, but an early lead still forces the Buccaneers into a script they have not answered.

7 points – Cincinnati Bengals over Jacksonville Jaguars: A 35-6 night against New England does not travel into a building where Cincinnati just held Houston to six. Road blowouts are cheap. Home first down is not. Jacksonville can wreck a series. It has not wrecked a full road afternoon against this front.

6 points – Houston Texans over Dallas Cowboys: Dallas had the ball and the clock in Rio and still left empty. That is the tell. Houston is winless, but this one does not ask them to be pretty. It asks Prescott to finish a game he already failed to finish when it was sitting there.

5 points – Indianapolis Colts over Washington Commanders: London strips the crowd and leaves the tape. Washington just stole Seattle. Indianapolis has already lived in one-score games, including overtime against Kansas City. One night in September is a spike. Three weeks of finishing or not finishing is the record.

4 points – Los Angeles Rams over Philadelphia Eagles: Seven points on Monday night is a bad look to bring home. The Rams' passing game woke up late in Denver and still almost stole it. The Linc will be loud. It will not unflatten a defense that just got punched in the mouth. Stafford with a full afternoon is the problem.

3 points – New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons: Thirty-five in Green Bay was an outburst against a team that never got off the floor. Monday is a different animal. The Saints already won ugly on the road once this year. Stay even late, and Atlanta has to prove that Packers night travels.

2 points – Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns: Feast or famine for three weeks is a rough way to take a short week. Pittsburgh just won the first-down fight it had to win against Cincinnati. Thursday will be ugly. Ugly is Pittsburgh's game when the other offense cannot stay in one gear.

1 point – New York Giants over Arizona Cardinals: Twelve to seven over Tennessee was a possession fight. This one will be too. Arizona hung points in San Francisco and still lost. One stalled series is enough at MetLife. New York already showed it can live there. Arizona has been living in games it does not finish.

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Start:	September 30, 2026 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Craig Trapp
Free $60 Account Sign Up

NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 4

Most Recent NFL Confidence Pool Picks