NFL Handicapping Articles
Expert NFL Handicapping: New York Jets Moves Make Team Much Improved
by Trevor Whenham - 3/22/2018
You can't accuse the New York Jets of being inactive this offseason. Last year wasn't as much of a disaster as it seemed like it could have been on the field, but it was still a long way from good. However, the team had a pile of cap space and has been wildly aggressive in overhauling this team. There is still a lot of time left before the season, and the draft is going to be a big day for this team - as they have clearly signaled.
What the NFL Trade Bonanza Means for the Future of the League
by Trevor Whenham - 3/14/2018
It has been a March unlike we have ever seen in the NFL. A league that hates to trade - at least outside of draft day - has suddenly developed an intense love for it. Big deals have been coming hot and heavy the last few weeks. It's not just bit pieces being exchanged, either - Alex Smith, Robert Quinn, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Michael Bennett, Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Cordy Glenn and the rest are good players with a lot left to give. Teams are trading legitimate players and getting legitimate prices for them. It certainly hasn't been boring. And it leaves two questions for us as bettors - why is it happening, and what does it all mean? Let's address both in turn:
NFL Draft Betting Props for the First Overall Pick
by Trevor Whenham - 2/15/2018
As of right now the first pick in the NFL Draft - to be made by the Browns - is a total mystery. There is often some confusion at this point before the Combine and before teams have really started their intense digging, but this year things feel more uncertain than ever. We don't even know if the Browns will definitely pick a quarterback - as opposed to going for a free agent or a trade - never mind which one they will pick if they do take one.
QB Nick Foles to Leave Philadelphia Eagles Next Season? Bet on it!
by Trevor Whenham - 2/13/2018
I will fully admit that I didn't see the last month of Nick Foles' life coming. He was lousy early on when he took over from Carson Wentz, and he was far removed from his strong season with the Eagles under Chip Kelly, so I expected him to be the anchor that sunk this once-promising Philadelphia season. So, of course, he won Super Bowl MVP.
Handicapping the 2018 NFL Quarterback Market
by Trevor Whenham - 2/7/2018
We knew all along that the quarterback market in the NFL was going to be very active this year. What we weren't expecting, though, is that it was going to get strange so early. Washington seemingly panicked, throwing around a pick and a quality young DB to get a QB who is four years older, and certainly less explosive, than what they had. Alas, Alex Smith was considerably cheaper than Kirk Cousins was, which is likely his biggest attribute in the eyes of the team.
Can New England Patriots Get Back to Super Bowl after 2018 Defeat?
by Trevor Whenham - 2/6/2018
Five hundred and five freaking passing yards. No turnovers. And yet the New England Patriots somehow lost the Super Bowl. It seems odd now, and the further away we get from the game the more unbelievable it will be. We can't focus on their place in history, though. Right now we have to figure out what to expect from this team next year. The oddsmakers love this team - they are strong Super Bowl favorites yet again at +550 at BetOnline in ridiculously early Super Bowl odds. If we have learned anything by now it's that we can't count this team out no matter what. At this point, though, I find it tough to get excited about their role as Super Bowl favorites. There are just too many reasons to be skeptical.
AFC Championship Game Betting Advice: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2018
The AFC Championship Game, like any football game, is a complex set of circumstances and possibilities that will likely be decided by just a few key matchups. The difference between the best teams and the worst in the NFL is really not that big, but the best teams just have the small edge in a few areas. That's the difference between winning it all and winning a high pick in the draft. So, when it comes to looking at individual games, those few key matchups are a good starting point. Here, then, are five of the biggest keys in the showdown between heavily-favored New England and Jacksonville as well as two distractions not worth any real attention:
NFC Championship Game Betting Advice: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2018
There are countless different components to a football game. More than 100 plays will take place in the game, and each one features 22 players all trying to make a difference. And each play features many coaches making many decisions as well. That's a whole lot of factors that could affect the outcome of a game. And the job of handicappers is to figure out which of those factors matter - which matchups are worth paying attention to because they could impact the outcome of the game. Here are three factors that I think are the most important in this game and one that is a big distraction because it seems so much more relevant than it really is.
NFL Playoffs Betting Advice: Ranking the Quarterbacks for Championship Sunday
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2018
It's a bizarre and intriguing group of quarterbacks in the final four of the NFL playoffs this year. They say that nothing matters more than a franchise quarterback, but this year that notion is certainly challenged. You have perhaps the greatest QB of all time, and then you have two guys who weren't even starters entering the year and a starter who no one would want on their team. Tom Brady has as many Super Bowl wins as the other three guys have combined playoff starts. It's really going to show us just how much quarterbacking matters.
NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
by Alan Matthews - 1/18/2018
The NFL is a copycat league. Does the fact we have two journeyman quarterbacks playing for a spot in Super Bowl LII mean that other teams no longer will think they need franchise quarterbacks? Uh, no. I believe the only reason the Eagles and Vikings were the NFC's top seeds and are in Sunday's late game is because of extenuating circumstances in their own divisions.
NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
by Alan Matthews - 1/17/2018
I had the Jacksonville Jaguars as my "it" team. Unfortunately, I was a year too early. Last season, I thought the Jaguars could bust out and get to the playoffs with all the young talent they had, especially on defense. Alas, their running game lacked a Leonard Fournette type and Blake Bortles was still Blake Bortles. Oh, and Gus Bradley probably wasn't meant to be a head coach.
NFL Playoffs Expert Betting Advice: Divisional Round Trends
by Robert Ferringo - 1/11/2018
When it comes to NFL Playoffs betting I am a bit more of a macro-handicapper. Rather than delving into individual matchups of games, I like to take a step back and look at the broader and longer-term trends for each individual round of the postseason. We're dealing with the best of the best football teams. The margin for error at this time of year is razor thin. And sometimes gamblers can lose some perspective in the forest of stats, trends, angles, matchups and storylines with which they are bombarded in the week leading up to one of the best football weekends of the year.
NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
by Alan Matthews - 1/11/2018
Just think how close we might have been to an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. The Philadelphia Eagles were the clear team to beat in the NFC before star quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a season-ending torn ACL in Week 14. The following Sunday, the New England Patriots visited the Pittsburgh Steelers in the most important game of the regular season. The Steelers appeared to win that game late, only for a touchdown reception by Jesse James to be overturned on replay because the NFL simply doesn't know what a catch is these days (for the record, I thought it was one and I have no dog in this fight).
NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Wagering Advice: Distractions to Avoid
by Trevor Whenham - 1/11/2018
After the four NFL Playoff games are played this weekend, we should have a much better idea of who is going to win the Super Bowl than we do now. Does New England really deserve to be the heavy favorites they are, or will their issues on and off the field catch up to them? Is Pittsburgh ready to shine, or will the Jaguars stun on the back of their stellar defense? Will the Eagles pick themselves up and show the pride to save their season, or will the experience of the Falcons be too much? And who wins the strongest and probably most important game of the week - on the field that will host the Super Bowl, no less?
Jon Gruden Replacement for Monday Night Football Predictions and Betting Odds
by Raphael Esparza - 1/11/2018
On Tuesday the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders introduced Jon Gruden as the new head coach, and that leaves a void in the booth for "Monday Night Football". For the first time in what seems like forever, the top lead NFL analyst role is up for grabs, and the names that have been rumored to replace Gruden in the booth are outrageous but some of them seem to fit like a glove.
NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
by Alan Matthews - 1/10/2018
So which fan base deserves a victory more in Saturday afternoon's NFC Divisional Round game at Lincoln Financial Field between the Falcons and Eagles? On the one hand you have the unfortunate football fans in the state of Georgia. They were subjected to the biggest Super Bowl choke job in history last February when their Falcons, trying for the first NFL title in franchise history, somehow blew a 28-3 late third-quarter lead to the New England Patriots. Then on Monday night, it looked like the University of Georgia would win its first national title since 1980 just 70 miles from campus in Atlanta.
Betting Odds and Predictions for Jon Gruden Monday Night Football Replacement
by Trevor Whenham - 1/10/2018
He finally did it. After years of being the hottest name not on a sideline, Jon Gruden has finally found a job he couldn't say no to. Of course, not many people would say no to the obscene contract the always-questionable Raiders threw at him. Now he has to prove that he is worth all the hype - and dramatically better than he was during his last six years in Tampa Bay. While there will be lots of time to figure out what to expect from him in his new role, let's look now at what will happen to his old seat.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: Bye Teams Last Five Years
by Trevor Whenham - 1/9/2018
Things aren't quite as we are used to following the Wild-Card Weekend in the NFL Playoffs. All four teams coming off a bye are well rested and have had extra time to prepare, but only three of those teams are favored in the Divisional Round. The home team is almost always favored in this round, but understandable skepticism surrounding Nick Foles with the Eagles has given the sixth-seeded Falcons the edge in their impending showdown.
NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
by Alan Matthews - 1/4/2018
There are a whopping eight new playoff teams in the NFL this season, and two newbies facing off in the AFC Wild-Card Round are the sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills visiting the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday's first game. Buffalo ended the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports leagues (that now belongs to MLB's Seattle Mariners) in amazing fashion in Week 17.
Expert NFL Betting Advice and Tips: Ranking Playoff Upset Possibilities
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2018
We have a relatively clear weekend of wild card action for bettors - at least according to the odds. All four home teams are strongly favored - all by at least 6.5 points. Without question, then, a road team win would be an upset this weekend. It only makes sense, then, that we look at which teams are most likely to pull off an upset. What we'll do today is rank the wild card teams in order of their likelihood of pulling off an upset. Keep in mind that we are not focused on which teams are likely to cover spreads.
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