2023 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions
We are just passing the halfway mark of the NFL regular season. And as you might expect, the betting favorites to win the league's Most Valuable Player Award are the same guys who were atop these futures odds before the first snap of the year.
We have a lot to unpack with these betting odds, but not before I jump onto a soapbox.
Where are the betting odds for the edge rushers? That’s the position that is changing the game the most right now. I hear cappers and commentators alike saying that Micah Parsons could be the best player in the NFL.
Maybe he is, and maybe he isn't, but I don't understand all the love from various sources, yet a defensive player isn't even in the top dozen or so of the most valuable guys in the league.
A wise man once said, though, that it is what it is. Let’s break down this list of 80% quarterbacks and make the case for why they will win this year’s NFL MVP Award.
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NFL MVP Betting Odds
Patrick Mahomes: +275
He's widely regarded as the best quarterback in the NFL. The man has MVP and Super Bowl trophies already. Patrick Mahomes is the man!
With all of that said, this hasn't been his best season. His interceptions are up to 8, which is higher than 6 players on this list. He is barely inside the Top 10 in QB rating so far this season.
If we're going to pick the favorite to win the MVP halfway through the season, he had better be currently dominating his peers, and Mahomes isn't.
Jalen Hurts: +325
Everything we just said about Patrick Mahomes' stats to this point can also be said for Jalen Hurts. They both have 8 picks, the completion percentages are 68.6 and 68.8%, while the QB ratings are virtually identical at 96.7 and 97.
These two are elite, but they also lead incredible organizations onto the field every week. Neither guy should be punished for playing under and with a bunch of other valuable winners. That's what we all should be doing in life.
Let’s get hypothetical for a moment. Replace a healthy Jalen Hurts with a healthy Joe Burrow, and watch the implied probability for them to win the Super Bowl go up.
He may have a slightly less pushable tush, but Burrow is a more accurate and precise passer of the football.
Tua Tagovailoa: +700
Tua Tagovailoa is leading the best offense onto the field every week and continuing to impress. His defense isn't as strong as the Eagles or Chiefs. So, he has more long fields to work with, and it shows with his statistics.
He is first in QB rating and touchdown passes. He does have 7 interceptions, but many of the top quarterbacks have thrown more picks this year than projected.
Lamar Jackson: +900
Of all the dominant players on the best teams this season, I believe that Lamar Jackson has been as valuable as anyone.
Where would his team be without him? As far as this season goes, we don’t know. That’s the difference between him and the next candidate.
Joe Burrow: +1600
Joe Burrow chose to play through a hampered ankle early on this season, and he was not very effective.
Looking at the stats of his team, they were also bad on defense and running the ball. Bad as in worst in the NFL in some categories.
Once their leader healed up, though, everyone got better. Okay, everyone played better. Maybe they didn't individually improve, but they improved as a unit. I would take this guy under center over anyone in the league.
Josh Allen: +1600
Josh Allen has been incredibly valuable for his team, as their defense has been the most banged up of any unit in the league this season.
Allen makes too many mistakes, though. He has turned the ball over 11 times through 8 games.
Brock Purdy: +1600
Did you know that Brock Purdy throws for more yards per pass than Tagovailoa? I was surprised to see this. Tagovailoa averages 8.5, which is fantastic, but Purdy throws for more than 9 yards per pass.
He has looked bad recently. Most are attributing that to the concussions. It would be a good story if he came back strong, but concussion symptoms generally don't disappear overnight, especially when you're getting hit in the head on a weekly basis.
Jared Goff: +1800
Jared Goff is having a strong season, but he has come up short when it's counted so far.
Christian McCaffrey: +2500
This guy can rack up a ton of yards quickly as the #1 dual-threat running back in the NFL.
His team is loaded everywhere and well-coached. It is going to take a record-breaking season for him to win it.
Dak Prescott: +3300
This guy is very good at what he does. He lacks that same it-factor that a guy like Mahomes or Burrow has.
Trevor Lawrence: +3300
Trevor Lawrence has done a good job keeping his interceptions down this season. However, with only 9 touchdown passes compared to the 19 of Tagovailoa, Lawrence may fall short in a vote.
CJ Stroud: +3300
CJ Stroud wasn’t on this list before his big win over Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. He has a pretty good argument so far. If he weren’t a rookie, I believe he would get more consideration.
With 15 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions, Stroud has an argument to win the league's MVP Award. The kid is slinging it all over the field with four games of 350+ passing yards. That's impressive, especially this season.
Tyreek Hill: +5000
If voters echo my sentiments that maybe a quarterback shouldn't win the award this season when the scoring is so far down, Tyreek Hill is right there. It's just him and McCaffrey on this list.
NFL MVP Betting Predictions
Joe Burrow: +1600
Mahomes is the darling of the league, but ask 32 GMs off the record. You might be surprised to hear some would rather have Burrow slinging it than Mahomes.
Tua Tagovailoa: +700
Tagovailoa might win the award if it was voted on today. Couple that with the 7 to 1 odds, and we have ourselves a bet.
Brock Purdy: +1600
Purdy has the stats right now to where if he takes his team on a heck of a run to end the year, he will have just as strong of an argument as anyone to be the NFL MVP.
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