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2024 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 8/30/2024

NFL MVP odds and predictions Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

It’s been a ton of fun writing these NFL futures articles throughout the preseason. However, I’m more excited about today’s article than any we’ve done so far. Even though this season’s contenders for the NFL MVP award are predominantly all quarterbacks, the true meaning of “most valuable player” has always intrigued me. The award isn’t for the best player in the league, necessarily. It goes to the most valuable, the player that has the most worth.

Sports betting has taught me more about value than I could ever imagine. And many times, at the end of the season, I find choosing and or betting on who will win the MVP is incredibly challenging. Do we take into account locker room presence? For better or for worse, yes.

As you will see, we have only three players with less than 10-1 betting odds, with everyone's favorite, the Kansas City Chief's Patrick Mahomes. You might be surprised to see the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson all the way down at 20-1. Captain Kirk Cousins has the opportunity to display a great deal of value as a first-year starter for the Falcons, a team that struggled to break through in 2023.

Let’s touch on some of the favorites and make a few predictions for the 2024 NFL MVP.

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2024 NFL MVP Betting Odds

Patrick Mahomes: +450

I guess if the award did go to the best player in the league, Mahomes would have won the award six times already. He does have two to his name, though, the most recent in 2022. I understand the league doesn't want to give it to him every year, and they did take 2023 off. There are too many other athletes on this board with much more valuable odds.

Josh Allen: +600

People keep talking about Josh Allen putting up a lot of numbers this year. The last time I checked, though, loss depletes one's worth. I'm not talking about losing games. That wasn't Allen's fault last year. It was the banged-up defense that highlighted that the D may have more worth than Allen.

The losses I'm referring to with Allen are his turnovers. He led the NFL with a career-high 18 last year.

C.J. Stroud: +850

For a second there, I thought they would give the MVP award to C.J. Stroud last year. He was certainly the difference-maker for the Texans. They have since made more sharp roster moves, including the signing of Stefon Diggs. That heightened Stroud's chances to win the award tremendously.

Jalen Hurts: +1000

I like Jalen Hurts, and call me crazy, but I think his limitations have been exposed. Opposing defenses have taken note.

Jordan Love: +1000

Jordan Love has the opportunity to be a star in this league. If he is, then it is perfectly acceptable to hate on the Green Bay Packers. They go from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to this guy. He still has a lot to prove, however.

One thing that Love has working for him is that there aren’t a lot of other big names on his offense; no superstars.

Joe Burrow: +1200

Joe Burrow already has a good start on the 2024 NFL MVP voting, as the combination of him playing with an injured wrist and missing some time both showed us what we already suspected, that Burrow is highly valuable. The Bengals looked lost without him and an immediate Super Bowl contender after he was healthy.

Brock Purdy: +1800

I remember writing an MVP article about two-thirds the way through last season. I picked Brock Purdy because I was surprised at the elite level of some of his stats. They call the guy a game manager, but he is 9.6 yards per pass attempt says otherwise.

Lamar Jackson: +2000

Lamar Jackson continues to disappoint in the postseason, and I don’t think he will see this award again until he can win when it matters.

Jared Goff: +2000

All of this elite talent, and we are talking about Jared Goff for MVP. He doesn't suck, nor is he a loser. However, he still isn't a difference-maker.

Tua Tagovailoa: +2000

Tua Tagovailoa is a talented quarterback. I expect another statistically sexy season. And at 20-1, he has decent odds to win the 2024 NFL MVP.

Aaron Rodgers: +2200

I saved the best for last! If Aaron Rodgers plays well this year and the Jets win the AFC East, it will be hard to deny the guy. We are talking about a 4-time winner of the award, though. I’ll be pulling for him. However, I can’t pull the proverbial trigger betting on someone 40+.

2024 NFL MVP Best Bets

C.J. Stroud: +850

The system says to fade Stroud this season, and that makes sense, but sometimes the "It" factor is enough to break a trend.

Jordan Love: +1000

Love is strong. His head coach knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks. 2024 could be an even bigger year for the young man from Bakersfield.

Joe Burrow: +1200

A far more proven superstar than our other two best bets, Burrow and the Bengals may refresh our memories in 2024 as they could return to elite status.

Value Play

Matt Stafford: +2800

Matt Stafford has yet to win the MVP award in his career. However, he’s a Super Bowl champion. I suppose that counts for more. With Cooper Kupp back fully healthy and Puka Nacua likely improving upon his rookie season, Stafford has a chance to steal the AFC West from the Niners and potentially take home the MVP.

More NFL MVP Betting Odds

Dak Prescott: +2500

Anthony Richardson: +2500

Matt Stafford: +2800

Justin Herbert: +3300

Trevor Lawrence: +4000

Caleb Williams: +4000

Kirk Cousins: +4000

Kyler Murray: +5000

Christian McCaffrey: +6600

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