Docs Website

54 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2026 Dallas Cowboys Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/13/2026

Dallas Cowboys predictions Dak Prescott

Whether you love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Dallas Cowboys are the most popular team in the NFL, and that will not be changing anytime soon. It’s now been 31 years since the Cowboys have appeared in the NFC Championship Game, but that hasn’t stopped them from being in the mainstream media spotlight. The expectations have risen again heading into 2026 after the Cowboys had a quiet -- yet effective -- offseason. Will they finally get over the hump, or will they find a new way to choke away another year?

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Dallas Cowboys Offseason Recap

The Dallas Cowboys hit the reset button last season after trading franchise cornerstone Micah Parsons but will be looking to get back into contention after back-to-back losing seasons. Dallas looked to bolster the interior of their defense in the offseason both through the draft and via trade. 

In the draft, Dallas opted to select Malachi Lawrence with the 23rd overall pick acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles. Lawrence can play EDGE or drop into linebacker, making him an incredibly versatile player for new defensive coordinator Christian Parker. 

They weren’t satisfied with just Lawrence, so the Cowboys also went out and got Rashan Gary from the Green Bay Packers. Gary logged six or more sacks in five straight seasons for Green Bay and is nearly as versatile as Lawrence in terms of the impact he can make. He has big shoes to fill in the wake of Parsons, but is certainly capable of being a real difference maker for Dallas on defense. 

2026 Dallas Cowboys Season Expectations

The Cowboys are running it back with all 11 offensive starters from last season, which should give them the continuity they have lacked in recent years. While they didn’t make any notable offensive changes on paper, they will still have higher expectations as they dealt with several key injuries last season. Offensive linemen Tyler Booker and Tyler Smith both missed time due to injury, and their absences were a big reason the Cowboys were bottom-ten in sacks allowed last season. They were also without CeeDee Lamb for an extended period of time, but fortunately still had George Pickens at receiver to mitigate his loss. 

Onto this year, the Cowboys have one of the most potent offensive units in the league. The wide receiver combination of Lamb and Pickens is arguably the best pass-catching duo in the league. Locking up a massive portion of cap space with these two players certainly hurts elsewhere, but one of the two is almost always in single coverage, and that is a matchup they will win more often than not. Once you add in the speedy KaVonte Turpin and the reliable Marquez Valdes-Scantling, there is no shortage of targets for Dak Prescott. 

The running back duo of Javonte Williams and Jaydon Blue will be crucial, but the reality is this offense is on the shoulders of Dak Prescott. Prescott is in his 11th season with the Cowboys but has yet to taste sustained success. Dallas has gone 2-5 in the playoffs during his tenure, as regular-season triumphs have not translated into the postseason. While playoff success is the only thing that results in tangible rewards, it is still clear Prescott can be one of the best in the league. He has thrown for a combined 66 touchdowns with 19 interceptions across his last two healthy seasons, amassing more than 4,500 passing yards in each campaign. An explosive Dallas offense has often been irrelevant with no defensive support, but they will be hoping this is the year they can finally play complementary football. 

2026 Dallas Cowboys Schedule Breakdown

The Cowboys schedule is a tough one to break down. Based on last year’s win percentages, the Cowboys have an easier-than-average schedule. However, the story is very different when looking at the projected win totals in 2026. The Cowboys have the fourth-hardest schedule according to the Vegas odds, severely capping their expected wins. Scheduled teams like the Titans, Commanders, and Giants are all expected to take big leaps this season, and it could be at the expense of the Cowboys. 

Taking a deeper look, Dallas opens up the season with a pair of divisional matchups against the Giants and Commanders, which could immediately dictate how this year will pan out. They follow that up with a very tough stretch of the Ravens in Brazil, then the Texans, Buccaneers, Packers, and Eagles, of which only one will be in Dallas. The Cowboys won’t have much wiggle room if they start slow with this kind of schedule, or they may be looking at a third straight seven-win season. 

2026 Dallas Cowboys Odds

The Cowboys have a win total of 9.5 this season, with +110 on the over and -140 on the under. Prescott has reached double-digit wins in five of his ten seasons in Dallas, making this line reasonable with that in mind. In the NFC East, the Cowboys trail the Eagles (+125) for the top spot with +220 odds of their own, but it is a wide-open race with the Commanders (+450) and Giants (+550) not far behind. Dallas has +100 odds to make the playoffs, with -130 odds to fall short. 

Looking at the postseason, Dallas is right in the middle of the pack to win the NFC with +1200 conference odds and +2200 Super Bowl odds, the 15th-shortest in the league. 

In terms of awards, Dak Prescott is an MVP contender with +1200 odds, just behind former winners Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford. Prescott isn’t the only Cowboy chasing an individual award, as CeeDee Lamb has +1800 odds for Offensive Player of the Year, while Caleb Downs (+750) and Malachi Lawrence (+2200) are also contenders for Defensive Rookie of the Year. 

2026 Dallas Cowboys Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Dallas Cowboys have been a below-average team over the last two seasons, and I struggle to see where they find three more wins this year. Their schedule looks easy based on last year’s standings, but the reality is that the projected win totals are often a much better way to evaluate the upcoming season. Dallas going 10-7 or better would require their offense to stay perfectly healthy and for them to consistently beat other playoff contenders. There is certainly a chance that Dallas can reach the playoffs, but it is far more likely they fall short. We could take under 9.5 wins at -140, but I like the slightly shorter price on them to miss the playoffs at -130. 

For the second bet, we will continue to fade the Cowboys with +140 odds on an alternative under. There is no guarantee that the Cowboys' minimal offseason moves will be enough to add multiple wins, and taking the plus money on under 8.5 wins gives us a potentially bigger payout. It is always better to go for the longer odds on multi-month futures, as you need to tie up a smaller percentage of your bankroll. The Dallas offense will be good as long as they stay healthy, but serious question marks on defense cap their ceiling unless their rookies step up in a big way. 

Pick: Dallas Cowboys to Miss the Playoffs -130

Top Pick: Dallas Cowboys Under 8.5 Wins +140

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers