2018 Cleveland Browns Season Win Totals Predictions and Expert Picks
2017 Record: 0-16
2018 Cleveland Browns Las Vegas Season Win Total: 5.5
2018 Cleveland Browns Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'
I don't recall the last time that the Cleveland Browns had a bandwagon. But if the reports out of Las Vegas can be believed, the Browns are taking more futures actions than 2017 playoff teams like Atlanta, Kansas City and Jacksonville. The Browns, due in part to their whirlwind offseason and due in part to being on "Hard Knocks", are now becoming a team that the public is flocking too. And that could definitely skew the numbers toward the worst team in football.
Cleveland's front office has done some really good things this offseason. The additions of Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and Carlos Hyde were all excellent. The Browns were judicious and calculated in how they have rebuilt their defense. This team is clearly more talented than last year's 0-16 mess. But it remains to be seen how much that talent will translate to actual victories.
Further, I felt like the Browns have missed some huge opportunities this offseason. I felt they should've taken Saquon Barkley with the No. 1 overall pick. They could have used their second pick on a quarterback, but I feel that the Browns have a good one in Taylor. Instead, Cleveland could've replaced Joe Thomas with a bedrock offensive lineman or taken the best defensive front seven player available. But instead of taking more of a "win now" approach, they are building for the future with Baker Mayfield.
Before the public piled on, I was slightly bullish on Cleveland. I felt like if they had drafted Barkley and signed Dez Bryant they could've been a 10-win team. Instead, now they will have to settle for six wins and being much more competitive. But when you've won just four games in three years, I think six wins would be a major upgrade.
The addition of Taylor is vastly underrated. This guy is a Pro Bowl quarterback. And, most importantly, he addresses Cleveland's biggest weakness from last year: turnovers. The Browns had an astronomical plus-28 turnover differential last season. That alone has them poised for a bounce-back season. But that's just one of several significant statistical indicators pointing to the Browns beating their season win total.
Cleveland's offensive and defensive yards per point were both multiple standard deviations beyond the mean. The Browns were 0-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less. And they were a jaw-dropping -3.3 against their Pythagorean win total, meaning they were much closer to a 3- or 4-win team than the winless bunch they settled as.
The Browns front office took two seasons to purge the roster and lay the foundation for a complete rebuild. That - a total lack of competent, NFL-caliber players - has condemned them to the 1-31 record they've posted the past two seasons. But now they are clearly ready to compete. And the numbers all suggest that this team has the potential to obliterate its season win total.
As I mentioned, some of my enthusiasm for this team has been dampened by their rising public profile. But Hail Mary futures bets are one thing. It will be another thing entirely to see if the public flocks to bet on the Browns against the spread each Sunday. In the meantime, I will hold firm on my first instinct about this team and peg them at 6-10 and going 'over'.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past seven years, earning nearly $28,000 in total football profit. He has also posted seven of nine winning seasons (including back-to-back winning years) and produced 26 of 41 winning football months and an amazing 45 of 70 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 900 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a third straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
We are offering new clients $60 in free college football picks for Robert's picks or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Get your free college football picks now!
Read more articles by Robert Ferringo
Get all of this Weeks NFL picks
Get all of this Weeks Guaranteed Expert NFL Picks