2018 Pittsburgh Steelers Season Win Totals Predictions and Expert Picks
2017 Record: 13-3
2018 Pittsburgh Steelers Las Vegas Season Win Total: 10.5
2018 Pittsburgh Steelers Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'
A smart bettor knows when to trust his gut and go against the public. And right now I think I'm at that spot with the 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers. I know that Pittsburgh is one of the favorites to win the AFC and on the short list of teams expected to win the Super Bowl. But I can't help the feeling that the more I think about this team the more I think they are going to be a major disappointment.
Yes, I will admit that there is a lot of talent to work with. Big Ben is still rocking. Antonio Brown is a demi-god. They have rebuilt their offensive and defensive lines over the past three years, so they are no longer weaknesses, but strengths. The same can be said about the secondary. They have some good young players that are starting to hit their prime years and a coach with a proven track record of success.
That's the good news. Now it's time for the bad news.
Pittsburgh overachieved compared to their Pythagorean win total by 2.4 games last year. That means they were closer to a 10-win team than the 13-win team that they ended up as. The Steelers accomplished those 13 wins against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. But they did so by winning an amazing eight games by a touchdown or less. That close game success screams regression.
Pittsburgh was also remarkably healthy last year, losing just 31 total starts to injury. This team has talent. But it isn't particularly deep. So if that injury luck flips itself this season then it could lead to big problems.
Further, over the course of the last 38 years the Steelers have won 11 or more games only 13 times. That's roughly once every three years. After winning 13 games last year they have now done it in back-to-back seasons. In the entire history of the franchise they've never won 11 or more games three straight years. They've done so in back-to-back years only four other times. And in the season following each of those other four times they came back to win eight, eight, 10 and nine games.
Beyond history, there is the reality that Pittsburgh's schedule has gotten much, much tougher. This year they crossover against the NFC South, which had three teams win double-digits last year. They also have to square off against the AFC West rather than the AFC South this season. Also, the three other teams in the Steelers' own division have all improved from last season.
LeVeon Bell isn't in camp. If Brown were to get injured then the passing game suddenly isn't so scary. And even Big Ben is no spring chicken. If any of those guys, or anyone in the front seven, goes down then this team will be vulnerable against that schedule.
I'm going with history here. I'm going with the numbers, which I trust. I'm going with my gut on this one. I honestly think that the Steelers won't win their division and they may not even make the playoffs. I know that sounds bizarre. And I know there isn't another handicapper, analyst, or TV commentator in the country that is making a proclamation like this about Pittsburgh.
But that's why I'm smarter than all of those guys. Play 'under'.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past seven years, earning nearly $28,000 in total football profit. He has also posted seven of nine winning seasons (including back-to-back winning years) and produced 26 of 41 winning football months and an amazing 45 of 70 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 900 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a third straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
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