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Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS5-Unit Play. Take #266 Baltimore (-6.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
It looks like Lamar Jackson is going to play. That’s bad news for Chicago. Jackson is 24-4 in his career against NFC opponents and I don’t think Chicago is ready for what’s coming. Baltimore is 1-5 on the season. This is it. They have to win this game and then beat the Dolphins on Thursday just to have a prayer of making a playoff run. The Ravens have not been good at home lately – losing their last three games in Baltimore. But for most of the last two decades the Ravens have enjoyed one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. If Jackson is back in full effect the crowd is going to be there going nuts, knowing how important this game is. Baltimore is getting healthy coming out of the bye week and should more closely resemble the squad that entered the season as one of the Super Bowl favorites. The Bears have won four straight games. They aren’t for real, though. Chicago has beaten a bunch of weak opponents, including two fluky one-point wins on the final snap of the game. They very easily could be 2-4 instead of 4-2 right now and this spread would be closer to 9.5 or 10. The Bears are 6-23 SU in their last 29 road games and I don’t think they are going to hold up against an angry Ravens group.
6-Unit Play. Take #268 Atlanta (-7.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
Statistically, this Falcons team is one of the best teams in the NFL. Their metrics are great. They are No. 7 in total offense, No. 4 in rushing, No. 2 in total defense and No. 1 in pass defense. Yet, the Falcons are just 3-3 SU and have been outscored on the year. They should be in bounce back mode here after a tough loss at San Francisco last week. Atlanta’s powerful running game should be able to overwhelm Miami’s rushing defense. The Dolphins have gotten dominated on the ground over the last three weeks by Rico Dowdle (206 rushing yards), Kimani Vidal (124), and Quinshon Judkins (84). Those three averaged 6.3 yards per carry. Now what do you think Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are going to do to the Dolphins? Michael Pennix might not have to throw more than 15 passes. Miami has quit on its coach, quit on its quarterback, and quit on this season. And even if they hadn’t, they just aren’t any good. The Falcons defense should embarrass the Fins offense, similar to what Cleveland did last week while holding Miami to just six points. And Atlanta’s offense should be able to do what it wants against a defense that has allowed an average of 31 points per game against all offenses not named ‘the Jets’. I do not see how this game is going to be competitive.
2-Unit Play. Take #272 Philadelphia (-7.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
That 34-17 embarrassment that Philly experienced just two weeks ago has to be fresh in the minds of the Eagles. This isn’t some schlub-ass team; Philly is the defending champions and they are 21-3 SU in their last 24 games. The Eagles have won 12 straight at home over the Giants and are 19-5 in the last 24 games in this series. Philly isn’t going to take it easy. They are also catching New York at the right time. The Giants just endured one of the biggest collapses in NFL history, becoming the first team in over 1,600 tries to blow a game where they led by at least 18 points with six minutes to play. Their meltdown in Denver could stick with this team. Also, the Eagles are going to be ready for New York’s high school-caliber offense. Philadelphia hasn’t blown anyone out yet this year. They are due. The Giants have lost three games by double-digits. I think a motivated Eagles team turns this one into a laugher.
1-Unit Play. Take #276 New Orleans (+4.5) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
Over 80 percent of the action on this game has come down on the Bucs. Yet the number keeps dropping. The Bucs are still really beat up and they are coming off a short week and playing back-to-back road games. Four of Tampa’s five wins this season have come by three points or less and the Saints have had their number, going 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. I think this one can be competitive in the fourth quarter.
1-Unit Play. Take #278 Indianapolis (-14.5) over Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
The Colts already went on the road and beat the Titans 41-20. It could be even worse on the Colts’ home turf and Indy can pick its score here. The Titans were called out – again – last week by an opponent for poor effort. Mike McCoy is a substitute teacher and no one on this crappy team really cares. They have taken their last five losses by 18, 10, 26, 21 and 14 points and their one win in that stretch came in a game they were down 21-6 heading into the fourth quarter. The Titans are 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games and 4-20 ATS since the start of last year.
1-Unit Play. Take #280 Denver (-3.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #274 New England (Pk) over Cleveland (1 p.m.) AND Take #272 Philadelphia (-0.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #268 Atlanta (-0.5) over Miami (1 p.m.) AND Take #266 Baltimore (+0.5) over Chicago (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #269 Buffalo (Pk) over Carolina (1 p.m.) AND Take #282 Pittsburgh (+10) over Green Bay (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #268 Atlanta (-0.5) over Miami (1 p.m.) AND Take #282 Pittsburgh (+10) over Green Bay (8 p.m.)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #283 Washington (+12.5) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)
I just feel like this is too many points. Washington has played a couple games without Jayden Daniels this season. It isn’t a massive drop-off from Daniels to Marcus Mariotta and I think the backdoor is going to be wide open all night. Kansas City has not been good ATS the last two years. They’ve covered back-to-back games and four of five, but after a 31-0 win over the rival Raiders last week and with a big game at Buffalo on deck I think they can be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas against a Washington team they know they are going to beat.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
NFL4-Unit Play. Take #463 San Francisco (+1) Over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, October 26)
The 49ers are quietly stacking up good quality wins even with banged up roster. Texans on the other side continue to disappoint and bettors continue to bet let down backing them. Houston is banged up and on short week don’t see the season long struggles ending this week. Take San Francisco to win and cover this spread.
6-Unit Play. Take #279 Over (51) Dallas vs Denver (4:25 p.m., Sunday, October 26)
This Dallas defense is not good, don’t get confused with the Washington game performance, that Commanders offense was missing top two weapons. Cowboys offense is back to nearly full strength and that spells big trouble for rest of the NFL including Denver this week. We have both teams scoring at will … Take the Over in the Cowboys vs Broncos game on Sunday.
3-Unit Play. Take 7 Point 2 Team Teaser: Carolina (+14.5) over Buffalo & Chicago (+13.5) Over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, October 26)
Actually think both these underdog will cover without the 7 point added but really love it with the extra points in teaser.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
3-Unit Play. #109/110 Take 'Over' 44.5 Minnesota at LA Chargers (8:15 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 23)The Chargers Herbert had over 400 passing yards in last week's loss and the Vikings Wentz had over 300 passing yards in their loss to the Eagles. The Minnesota defense was done in by big plays by the Eagles downfield and don't be surprised if Herbert and company take advantage of the same opportunities here. At the same time, if Wentz can avoid the turnovers here, the Vikings offense is also in for a big day as the Chargers have been giving up some bigger points of late. LA has allowed 31 ppg last 3 games. The Vikings have allowed 23 ppg last 3 games and that included facing some weaker offenses too. That is why this one is screaming over as the Chargers have one of the top passing offenses in the league statistically and the Vikings passing attack seems to be on the cusp of a break-through game as well and should produce another 300+ this week. Solid over here. 3* Over 44.5 in LA Chargers
4-Unit Play. Take #268 Atlanta (-7.5) vs Miami (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
This is as much a play against Miami as it is a play on Atlanta. The fact is the Dolphins are awful. When they rallied from 13 down to take a very late lead against the Chargers a couple weeks ago only to still lose the game in the final seconds that finished off Miami. The Dolphins then got blasted at Cleveland and now they have another road game here and they are facing an angry Falcons team. Not only that, Atlanta is the much stronger team in the trenches and lets not forget the only win that Miami has this season is against a Jets team that is 0-7 on the season. Atlanta had won B2B home games over the Commanders and Bills prior to last week's loss. They are strong defensively and also beat the Vikings when they held them to just 6 points at Minnesota this season. The Falcons, statistically based on yardage, rank very high on both sides of the ball while the Dolphins rank among the league's worst on both sides of the ball. This one will be all Falcons in a home rout as Miami coach Mike McDaniel is seeing his seat get hotter and he has truly lost this team. A lot of problems with Miami right now.
6-Unit Play. Take #280 Denver (-3.5) vs Dallas (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
Both teams have faced some weaker teams lately but there are a couple of keys as to why I love the Broncos in this spot. Home field and defense including pass rush are big keys for Denver here. Both the Cowboys and Broncos faced the Jets recently. Denver held the Jets to 82 yards of offense! The Cowboys allowed nearly 400 yards of offense to that same anemic Jets unit! Not only that, Dallas allowed over 400 yards to Carolina! I don't trust the Dallas defense at all and I am confident that the Broncos defense, including pass rush, is going to be a big factor here in slowing down Dak Prescott and what has been a surging Cowboys offense. Also, don't forget that the Dallas defense ranks among the league's worst and Broncos QB Bo Nix has helped lead the Broncos to comeback wins over the Eagles and Giants in which he helped lead Denver to a combined 51 points just in the 4th quarter alone of those two wins! Remember Dallas is 1-3 on the road including seeing Carolina have 27 first downs to their 15 and the only Cowboys road win was over a Jets team that is 0-7 this season and, again, Dallas allowed nearly 400 yards to that same Jets team that the Broncos held under 100 yards! Huge edges for the Broncos here, including a bargain number on this one as well. 6* DENVER -3.5
5-Unit Play. Take #283 Washington (+12.5) at Kansas City (8:15 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)
The Commanders will be without QB Jayden Daniels but it is not like they have a back-up QB that is a rookie or a guy that hasn't even played this season. The fact is Washington has Marcus Mariota, a veteran with over 2,200 pass attempts in his career! Also, Mariota has already seen action in 3 games this season and was decent in his two starts before struggling in relief of Daniels last week. Now, a known starter again for this week, Mariota will be prepared and ready to go. Helping the cause is that it is looking likely that Deebo Samuel will be back. Also, Terry McLaurin also might be back. Either way this seems like far too many points. There has been an over-reaction to KC this week because they blew out Las Vegas last week and now there has been an over-reaction with Daniels ruled out. I am happy to grab the additional line value here. Lets not forget that, prior to last week's ugly loss at Dallas, all 3 of Washington's losses this season were by a single digit margin and the average margin was only 6 points. Also, prior to last week's demolition of the Raiders, the Chiefs were off a 13 point win but only outgained their opponent by 58 yards. Also, that followed a loss at Jacksonville. KC is known for a lot of tight-game wins and I am expecting the Commanders, angry off a loss, to respond here with a huge effort on Monday night football and they keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 5* WASHINGTON +12.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
NoneRaphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #88 Unit Play. Take #281 Over 45 Green Bay at Pittsburgh (8:20p.m., Sunday October 26 NBC)
(Total Game of the Year) Had this game circled for a couple of weeks and when this total opened, I was thrilled at the number 43.5. As of release time this total was still 45 at Caesars, Bet365, ESPNBet, and other global books. I would still bet this total at 45.5 because no matter what we will points hitting the scoreboard. Last week the Green Packers scored 27 points on the road to beat the Arizona Cardinals and that game flew ‘Over’ the total. Last Thursday the Steelers went to Cincinnati and their defense was horrible giving up 33 points and lost 33-31 and that total had no issue going ‘Over’. Steelers offense is averaging 25ppg this season and their last 3 home games this season 2 of them have gone ‘Over’ the total. Love the QB matchup Saturday night in Pittsburgh as the Steelers Aaron Rodgers goes up against won of his former teams the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers last 3 games he has thrown for 200+ passing yards and has 7 touchdowns. Jordan will need to step his game on the road against his former teacher, and I see him having success against a Steelers defense that has been questionable at times. Love has thrown for 5 touchdowns on the road this season and I see him and Rodgers going back and forth Sunday night. With no weather issues in this game and two quarterbacks throwing the ball around at will I see this game going ‘Over’ the total. Pittsburgh is 5-1 O/U after scoring 30 points or more in their last game. Let’s also throw in that the Steelers are 4-1 O/U against NFC opponents.
Tony George
NFL
Thursday - 10/23/25
4 Units
#109 / #110 Minnesota / LA Chargers (OVER 44.5) *8:15 EST
Both defenses are very suspect and will give up big plays through the air. The Charger defense has given up more yards per play than any other team in the NFL over the past 3 games and every team they have faced has scored 27 or more points, including the Dolphins! Minny just got torched by both Brown and Smith from the Eagles last week where both receivers has over 100+ yards each. Expect both QB’s to air it out. Not a clock killing type approach to offense here. I expect both teams in the 24+ point range here.
Sunday
10/26/25
8 Units
#268 Atlanta (-7.5) over Miami *1 EST
Catching Atlanta at home off a loss to San Fran, and no better team to get back on track against than the hapless Dolphins. I do not take 8-unit releases lightly, and frankly this setup is as good as it gets, even laying this type of number. The Dolphins in my opinion have given up on their head coach. This may be his last game as head coach. They had to bench Tua last week as the guy cannot throw a pass past 20 yards it seems, and the Miami defense is going downhill fast. They just gave up 31 points to Cleveland with a rookie QB, turned the ball over 4 times, and just got destroyed 31-6 by a 2-win team. Bear in mind the Atlanta defense is #1 in the NFL at yards allowed per game and #2 in pass yards allowed. Bad combination for Miami who is lost on offense. Last week Miami looked like a JV high school team in a soap scrimmage. One of their best offensive weapons once WR Hill went down, TE Waller, is now on IR.
The KEY here is that Miami is dead last at stopping the run in the NFL. Robinson for Atlanta at RB is the best RB in the NFL. Also, Miami is last on defense at allowing RB’s pass receptions and Robinson again is one of the best out of the backfield at catching passes and breaking big plays. He will have a HUGE game and is the key in this one. If Cleveland can beat Miami 31-6, then Atlanta catching them on back-to-back roadies in a spot where there is mass confusion for Miami, and a dead man walking head coach. Atlanta if they show up at all can win by double digits with ease. Off a loss I like them to be dialed in where they are a game behind Carolina and 2 games behind Tampa in their division right now. Big game for the Dirty Birds.
3 Units
#274 New England FIRST HALF LINE (-3.5) over Cleveland *1 EST
This is not the Miami defense and as bad as Miami was last week when Cleveland beat them 31-4, the Browns offense only had 216 total yards. Lots og dink and dunk for Gabrielle at QB will not work against a good Pats defense and I think the Pats are for real, especially at home against a less than stellar team. Maye is the real deal at QB for New England, and while this may be lower scoring, I clearly see the Pats controlling the game throughout and have a 6+ point lead at halftime.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120)
3 Units
Tease #274 New England DOWN to (-1) and Tease #263 San Fran UP to (+7.5)
Vernon Croy
5-Unit Play: #110 Los Angeles -3-110 over Minnesota (Thursday, October 23, 2025, 8:15pm ET)Take Los Angeles ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Los Angeles in the spot at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover in four straight games and I feel like this is a very tough spot for Minnesota especially after playing the defending Super Bowl Champions. Before that game Minnesota barely got past a bad Cleveland team on the road and in their third last game, they lost at Pittsburgh which was played on a neutral field across the pond. I'm simply not impressed with this Minnesota team and I believe that Los Angeles is the superior team especially at home. Play Los Angeles ATS
7-Unit Play: #272 Philadelphia -7.5-110 over New York (Sunday, October 26, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Philadelphia ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this is a big revenge spot for Philadelphia after losing at New York by 17 points back on October 9th. This is also an extremely tough spot for New York after playing at Denver last week and losing that game by just one point. Philadelphia fell apart defensively giving up 33 points in the 4th quarter which is unheard of and Philadelphia will not show up late to this party especially at home with revenge in mind. New York comes into this game really banged up defensively as well and dart completed just 45.5% of his passes last week at Denver. I would not be shocked to see Philadelphia score defensively in this game either and Hurts is coming off his best game of the season completing 82.6% of his passes against a very good Minnesota defense putting up three touchdowns. Philadelphia is starting to hit stride and I see a blowout victory coming for them at home here Sunday. This is a New York defense that has struggled this season allowing 25.3 points per game. Play Philadelphia ATS
4-Unit Play: #269 Buffalo -7-110 over at Carolina (Sunday, October 26, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Buffalo ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like buffalo in this bounce back spot especially after losing back-to-back games. Buffalo is the superior team on both sides of the ball and I do expect them to take care of business on the road here Sunday. The only reason we are getting this low line here is because Carolina has now won three straight games against three mediocre teams. I expect to see Allen's best game of the season on the road here especially after having his worst game last week. Buffalo has averaged 27.8 points per game this season and this is a Carolina team that has averaged just 20.7 points per game. I do expect Buffalo to step up defensively on the road here as well and they have allowed just 167.2 passing yards per game this season which ranks second defensively in the NFL. Buffalo has the average 151 rushing yards per game this season which ranks first offensively in the NFL. Play Buffalo ATS
5-Unit Play: #280 Denver -3.5-110 over Dallas (Sunday, October 26, 2025, 4:25pm ET)
Take Denver ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. I really like Denver in the spot, especially after showing up late in their last game putting up 33 points in the fourth quarter in a gutsy victory. Denver was the superior team and they simply did not show up until the 4th quarter. Denver is the superior team in this matchup and I do expect them to come ready to play especially against Dallas and after their poor performance in the first three quarters of their last game. Dallas is coming off an impressive 22-point victory against Washington and I feel like this is a very tough spot for them. Denver also comes into this game fairly healthy while Dallas has plenty of injuries on both sides of the ball. I definitely expect Denver to step up defensively in this game especially after allowing 32 points last week. Keep in mind Denver did hold the Jets to just 11 points the week before and the week before that holding Philadelphia to just 17 points and in their fourth last game holding Cincinnati to just three points. Denver does have a defense and I expect them to show up at home here Sunday. Play Denver ATS
6-Unit Play: #283 Washington +12.5-110 or Kansas City (Monday, October 27, 2025, 8:15pm ET)
Take Washington ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I do expect Washington to keep this game extremely close Monday night with the chance at pulling off the upset. Washington has averaged 345 yards per game this season and 25.7 points per game. This will also be Daniel's second back game off injury so you can expect a much better game from him here Monday. Washington has averaged 148.9 rushing yards per game this season which ranks second offensively in the NFL and they will be able to run against this Kansas City defense. I also expect Washington to step up defensively especially after allowing 44 points against Dallas last week. Play Washington ATS
Scott Spreitzer
3-Unit Play: Take 110 Chargers -3 over Vikings (8:15 p.m., Thursday, October 23)I’m laying the points with the Chargers on Thursday. We won a prop on Justin Herbert last week, betting Over 253.5 passing yards and he obliterated that mark, finishing with 420 yards. LAC is able to stretch the field with Keenan Allen and Oronde Gadsden along with underneath chain movers in guys like Ladd McConkey. Minnesota’s pass defense has proven susceptible to long distance passing. The Vikings are challenged on offense too and QB Carson Wentz has more INTs than TD passes in his last three starts. Solid spot for the home team to get back in the win column. I’m laying the points with the Chargers. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
5-Unit Play: Take 266 Ravens -6.5 over Bears (1 p.m., Sunday, October 26)
This is it for Baltimore. Lose on Sunday and 1-6 means a playoff berth is likely out of the picture until next season. They’ve had a week off to prepare for the Bears and while Lamar Jackson practiced Wednesday and Thursday, this is a play whether he plays or not. The Ravens are a little healthier than they were two weeks ago and the importance of the moment will not escape them. The Bears have won four in a row but take a look at who they’ve beaten and how they beat those teams. Chicago is +13 in turnover margin during the streak. Caleb Williams has protected the ball but he gets excited and makes bad reads and hurried throws and he’s been fortunate. I expect Baltimore to let RB Derrick Henry touch the football early and often. Chicago is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, second worst in the league. They’re allowed the 4th highest completion rate (71.5%). Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are on a 14-3 SU run, winning by 12 ppg (31-19) against teams that allow at least 64% passing. They’re 26-5 at home, winning by double digits on average against teams that allow at least 130 rushing yards per game. The Bears allow 138 rypg. It’s now or never for the Ravens and I’ll back them. I’m laying the points with Baltimore. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 261 Jets +6.5 over Bengals (1 p.m., Sunday, October 26)
The Bengals beat an overvalued Pittsburgh team last week on the arm of 40-year old Joe Flacco and now Cincinnati is an overvalued team. The Steelers allow nearly 6 yards per play and they’re 8th worst in third down conversion allowed. Few defenses would have been a better fit for Flacco than Pittsburgh. The Jets have held each of its last two opponents to 13 points. They’re 6th in third down conversion defense this season and allowed just 4.4 yards per play the last two weeks. Offensively, HC Glenn has the greenlight to play Tyrod Taylor at QB if he feels it gives the Jets a better chance to win. Note that road teams on a losing streak of at least seven games are 41-15 ATS. These teams often become undervalued as far as the spread is concerned. I’m taking the points with the Jets. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
2-Unit Play - (109) Minnesota Vikings +3.5 -110 over Los Angeles Chargers (10/23 | 8:15PM EST) Both teams need a win, but the main concern for us has been with the Chargers and their defense that cannot seem to get stops. They've allowed almost 31 ppg their L/3 games, and the Vikings have shown they can put up points (48 vs. Cincinnati). This line is due to the better raw metrics for the Chargers despite playing the tougher strength of schedule; but as we often say - this can beat down on teams over time. Vikings are more than live here.7-Unit Play - (266) Baltimore Ravens -6 -110 over Chicago Bears (10/26 | 1:00PM EST) Love, love, love this spot for the Ravens who NEED the win. The public have flipped on them after the 1-5 start, and the recreational money is on the Bears. However, the Ravens are off a bye with ample time to prepare, and Lamar Jackson is expected to get the nod after returning to practice on Wednesday. After starting the season 0-2, the Bears are 4-0 SU and ATS in their L/4 games; this is giving them too much respect and setting up the perfect buy-low/sell-high. Keep in mind; this team was 4.5 point favorites to Detroit, and 2.5 point favorites on the road at KC not all that long ago. Expecting them to deliver one of their cleanest performances of the season.
Strike Point Sports
NFL Plays:2-Unit Play. Take #263 San Francisco (+2) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
Houston comes into this game on a short week, and the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following Monday Night Football. San Francisco just keeps winning despite all their injuries. Robert Salah has this defense playing as good as most, and I'm all about the 49ers in a game that figures to be a low scoring affair.
6-Unit Play. Take #268 Atlanta (-7.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 26)
The Dolphins head coach is a lame duck. The Dolphins quarterback has lost the respect of his team. The Dolphins are arguably the worst team in football. The Falcons meanwhile are much better than their record suggests. Atlanta is top 10 in the NFL in both offense and defense, and both sides will have a field day against Miami. The Dolphins are playing back-to-back road games and the Falcons are angry after giving a game away to the 49ers. Despite the loss the Falcons are still just a game and half out of the top spot in the NFC South, and with Tampa Bay dealing with injuries and a tough schedule coming out of their bye, this is a must win for Atlanta. I like this to be a two-three touchdown win for the Falcons as Miami knows it has nothing to play for. This should be a 10-point line. Yes, Michael Pennix is dealing with a foot injury, but even if Kirk Cousins suits up, I'm all about the Falcons. Atlanta is 2-0 ATS this season following a loss and 1-0 ATS versus the AFC. Lay the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #274 New England (-7) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
NFL-Thursday October 23rd 2025-
3 Unit Play Take #109 Minnesota +3.5 over Los Angeles Chargers (8:15pm est):
(+3.5 is at SouthPoint, ESPN and Hard Rock)
The NFC has owned the AFC so far this season in the NFL and these are the type of games where I think one can find value this year as these two teams are perceived to be close to each other power ratings wise so getting a field goal or more is way too much line value for Minnesota. I thought the Vikings actually played fairly well last week against what was a desperate veteran Philadelphia team that was coming in off two straight losses but they just didn't have enough to overcome a -2 turnover margin, one of which went for a pick six. Minnesota has to deal with a short week here in this one but I wouldn't be surprised if their solid coaching staff spent some time during their bye week two weeks ago preparing for this contest.
I had a play last week on Los Angeles and was quite alarmed how poorly they played against Indianapolis as they looked completely out-classed on both sides of the football. The Chargers don't have much if any home field edge either. They also haven't looked like the same team over the past month losing badly to both NFC teams that they faced (Washington and NY Giants) and this despite the fact both of these teams are below .500 on the season and then getting smoked by the Colts while barely beating an awful Miami team.
Take Minnesota and the points.
Sunday October 26th 2025-
7 Unit Play Take #282 Pittsburgh +3 over Green Bay (8:20pm est):
I think Green Bay might be the most overrated team in the NFL at this time. The Packers looked like world beaters when they played at home in the first two games of the season, both in ideal spots facing a Detroit Lions team in a hugely motivated spot for GB less than a week after the huge trade for Micah Parsons. Then the Packers got Washington on a short week and after those two wins everyone was anointing Green Bay the best team in the league. Since then they haven't looked anywhere near the same team despite going 2-1-1 overall as they've failed to cover the point spread in any of those last four games and have done so by an average of 7 points per game as well. Even more eye opening is the fact those four teams they've played since then are a combined 10-17 on the season and none of them currently has a winning record.
Pittsburgh comes into this game with a solid 4-2 mark so far on the season but they are off an ugly loss last week to Cincinnati so they should be extra focused here in this one. This on paper looks to be the ideal Mike Tomlin spot as Tomlin led teams have been awesome in this role as the Steelers have covered the spread 12 of 15 times under him at home as an underdog coming off a loss. Add in the Aaron Rodgers revenge factor in this one and the fact Rodgers has quietly performed well so far this year.
Take Pittsburgh plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #264 Houston -1.5 over San Francisco (1:00pm est):
This feels like desperation time for Houston in this one. The Texans are just 2-4 overall on the season but they've been in every game this year. They have also played the 7th hardest schedule to date with only two games coming at home. They know how important this game is so I expect they bring extra effort and intensity here.
San Francisco is in totally different position here than the Texans as they have somehow managed to jump out to a 5-2 start on the year and are just +7 in scoring margin. The Niners also managed to win despite dealing with an unbelievable amount of injuries this season. I think because they come into this game 5-2 on the year they will be overly cautious and sit their starting quarterback Brock Purdy this week to get him completely healthy for the much bigger games they have coming up in the 2nd half of the season. Another eye opening stat here show the 49ers have struggled off a win in their next game as they failed to cover the spread in their next game 13 of the last 14 times overall.
Take Houston in this one.
4 Unit Play Take #279 Dallas +3.5 over Denver (4:25pm est):
We have another example here of an NFC team getting a field goal or more versus an AFC team. I am not so sure that if Dallas was in the AFC they wouldn't be a legit playoff contender like Denver but the Cowboys are being overshadowed by all the good teams in their conference. It was obvious early on this year that the Dallas defense needed some time to get used to playing without superstar Micah Parsons but they've started to look a lot better of late and overall are mostly healthy. The Cowboys offense keeps them in any game and there's an argument to be made that their quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level this season right now.
I think this Denver team might be a little tired mentally, emotionally and physically coming into this one. The Broncos played in Engald two games ago and looked out of sync there versus an awful New York Jets squad. They had to travel back after that one and struggled last week for 80% of their game against another bad team before roaring back and winning in a miracle comeback over the New York Giants. Not sure how much this Denver team has in the tank here for this one. One other key thing I think being missed in this one is the Cowboys have the best kicker in the NFL and he could be an unbelievable weapon here in this one playing in the thin air at Mile High Stadium. Meaning the Cowboys could actually put up 3 points every time they cross mid-field in this one and against a Denver team that struggles to score every point is huge.
Take Dallas plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
6 Unit Play - Take #265 Chicago Bears (+6.5) Over Baltimore Ravens. (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 26th)Chicago has now won 3 games in a row, and the energy in that locker room could not be stronger. Ben Johnson is doing a phenomenal job as a head coach, and this team is starting to execute across all cylinders. Chicago is 3rd in the NFL on the defensive side when it comes to 3rd down conversions. This is an absolutely critical metric against a team like the Baltimore Ravens. We are aware how deadly Lamar is with his legs, and he always finds a way to throw defenses off. Chicago has very good linebacker containment, and they are finding ways to turn the ball over game in and game out. Offensively, Chicago has been destructive with the run game, and we believe this is exactly what is needed to beat this Ravens team. Baltimore runs a utility-based defense, and sometimes they can be soft on the defensive interior. Baltimore currently ranks 26th in the NFL when it comes to rushing yards against. That metric is not bold due to Baltimore dealing with injuries all season. We find this as another pro. Baltimore really hasn't played at full health as a team this season. Chicago has battled through their injuries and has continued to prevail. Baltimore is 1-5 on the season, so there are clear issues. This is Chicago’s biggest test of the season, and due to all the broken cylinders the Ravens have and have had to deal with this season, we believe this line is soft, and Chicago comes into Baltimore the better team.
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #280 Denver Broncos (-3.5) Over Dallas Cowboys. (4:25p.m, Sunday, October 26th)
Denver continues to squeeze out speculated victories. Denver dealt with the Jets and won that game 13-11, which caused mass speculation. The Giants last week, which was absolutely ridiculous, so now we have Dallas on the scope. Dallas, on the other hand, has continued to prevail in victories. The public was very low on Dallas entering this season, and things have changed tremendously due to their 40-40 tie with Green Bay, 44 offensive-produced win over Washington, and leading the NFL in offensive yards per game. So psychologically it seems tides are descending for Denver and ascending for Dallas. This is exactly when tides flip. This is a market reaction, and Denver’s defense will finally be put to the test against a heavily speculated Dallas offense. Entering this season, everyone was high and mighty on Denver’s defense. They currently sit 9th against the rush, 6th against the pass, 5th against total yards, and 1st against 3rd down conversions. We believe this is a statement game for Denver's defense, and they shut down Dallas. We also love how there is a hook involved in this game. That’s a shark bitter for every public bettor on Dallas. We are laying the 3 points and the hook here, as we believe Denver comes into this game absolutely dominant.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
6 Unit – Take #264 HOU Texans ML (-120) over SF 49ers (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 26th)Our first matchup of the day is a big one as the 49ers head to Houston to face the Texans. San Francisco comes off a 20–10 primetime win over the Falcons on Sunday Night Football, but the box score told a different story: Atlanta actually outgained them for most of that game. Now, the 49ers face a Texans team still trying to find consistency early in the season. Houston was never really in their Monday night matchup against Seattle, struggling to move the ball behind an offensive line that needs to tighten things up. The run game hasn’t been the same since Nick Chubb’s injury, and with Nico Collins still in concussion protocol, Stroud will need to rely on quick reads and time of possession to keep this one close. Everyone and their mother is going to look at this slate and immediately circle the 49ers as an “easy win” in their parlays, but this feels like a trap line. San Francisco is banged up and playing their third road game in the last month. Houston’s defense is capable, and if they can control the clock and keep McCaffrey contained, this becomes a very big trap, with the line staying at -1.5 for Houston. This is where I’m taking a stand: CJ Stroud and the Texans wake up at home. Don’t be surprised when the Texans not only cover but also win this game outright. Fade the public take on Houston.
Take #264 HOU Texans ML (-120) over SF 49ers
Nick Menken
4 Unit – Take #273 CLE Browns (+7) over NE Patriots (-110) (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 26th)
Sunday features a key AFC matchup as the Cleveland Browns travel to New England to face the Patriots. New England has been on a roll, winning four straight games, including a 31–13 road victory over the Titans. But rookie quarterback Drake Maye is about to face a stiff challenge against a Cleveland defense that leads the NFL in total yards allowed, giving up just 274 per game. The Browns themselves come off a statement win, dominating the Dolphins 31–6. Rookie Dillon Gabriel was efficient and careful with the football, going 13-for-18 for 116 yards without turning it over. That careful play will be critical against a Patriots team that has shown the ability to move the ball when opponents make mistakes. Cleveland’s defense is elite, and their ability to disrupt Maye’s rhythm could keep this game close and low scoring. The Browns offense, led by Gabriel’s growing confidence, is capable of putting points on the board, but the match will be a battle every step of the way. Backing the Browns with the points is the smart play here, as New England could struggle to move the ball consistently.
Take #273 CLE Browns (+7) over NE Patriots (-110)
Nick Menken
1 Unit – Take #280 DEN Broncos (-3.5) over DAL Cowboys (-110) (4:25p.m, Sunday, October 26th)
We have a key Sunday matchup with the Dallas Cowboys heading to Denver to face the Broncos. There’s no question Dallas’ offense is elite, scoring over 27 points in each of their last four games, but their defense has struggled all season. They’ll face a Broncos team that, while not perfect, showed resiliency last week by mounting a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Giants 33–32 at home. This time, Denver’s offense can’t wait until the fourth quarter against such an explosive Dallas unit. I like Denver here because their defense has the ability to hold Dallas under 27 points, while their offense looks to build momentum from last week’s comeback. At home with a better defensive unit and an offense starting to find its rhythm, take the Broncos laying -3.5 points.
Take #280 DEN Broncos (-3.5) over DAL Cowboys (-110)
Nick Menken
3 Unit – Take #283 WSH Commanders (+12.5) over KC Chiefs (-110) (8:15p.m, Monday, October 27th)
We have a Monday Night Football showdown in Kansas City as the Washington Commanders take on the Chiefs. Everyone is buzzing after the Chiefs’ dominant 31–0 win over the Raiders last week, but this game presents a unique spot. Washington will be without their star quarterback Daniels, turning to Marcus Mariota. While the Commanders struggled on the road last week in a 44–22 loss to Dallas, Mariota has experience starting this season and has had a full week of preparation for prime time. The Commanders come in as double-digit underdogs, but their offense is capable of putting points on the board, and their defense needs to step up to keep this close. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are looking ahead to a huge game next week in Buffalo against the Bills. With a short turnaround, Kansas City will want to keep players healthy and save some plays for that matchup. This is a classic sandwich spot where the underdog can stay competitive. While the Chiefs could win, I don’t trust them to cover the 12.5-point spread. Take the Commanders with the points on Monday Night Football.
Take #283 WSH Commanders (+12.5) over KC Chiefs (-110)
Nick Menken
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