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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
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Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
THURSDAY FOOTBALL SELECTIONS2-Unit Play. Take #101 Seattle (-1.5) over Arizona (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 25)
Seattle is 10-1 in its last 11 road games and they are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games in Arizona. The Seahawks have won eight of 10 against the Cardinals and I think that they are the better team here. The Cardinals are just 4-14 SU in their last 18 Thursday games. I think that Seattle is the better team. If Arizona wins this one, I’ll tip my cap to them. But the Cardinals have been outgained in all three games they’ve played this year. Seattle has been more impressive against the two common opponents and the Seahawks already have a road win in Pittsburgh. I think the loss of James Conner is a big one for the Cards and as long as Sam Darnold isn’t an idiot and turn the ball over multiple times tonight I think Seattle is better on both sides of the ball and will get another win over the Cards.
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #251 Minnesota (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
Minnesota’s defense is so difficult to prepare for and I think that they are going to overwhelm Aaron Rodgers and this pop gun Steelers offense. Pittsburgh got completely outplayed by the Patriots last week and scummed out a win. I don’t see them doing it twice in a row. The Steelers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and nothing about this team has been impressive. The Vikings are 11-4 SU and ATS in their last 15 games against AFC opponents and went 5-0 against AFC teams last year.
2-Unit Play. Take #253 Philadelphia (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The Bucs could very easily be 0-3 right now. And it is not as if they have played a bunch of good teams, beating the Falcons, Texans and Jets (combined record: 1-8) on the back of Baker Mayfield’s last-second heroics. I don’t love betting against Mayfield as an underdog. But all the Eagles do is win. They’ve already gone to Kansas City and won and Philadelphia is 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games. I have no problem giving them the benefit of the doubt against a short line.
4-Unit Play. Take #258 New England (-5.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
Carolina’s 30-0 win last week over Atlanta was about as fluke of a win as you’re going to see. The Falcons had more passing yards and more rushing yards. Carolina won by 30 – and were outgained by over 100 yards. The Panthers are still awful. They have injury issues all over the field and they are catching an iffy Pats team at the wrong time. New England absolutely should’ve beaten the Steelers last week. The Pats lost four fumbles and had five turnovers, including two in the end zone. They outgained Pittsburgh by nearly 200 yards and lost. Now they are facing a team with a worse offense and worse defense. The Patriots have lost both of their home games this year. They can’t afford to lose three in a row in Foxboro and I think they are going to bury a bad Panthers squad.
6-Unit Play. Take #265 L.A. Chargers (-6.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
Yes, Jaxon Dart is going to fix everything that’s wrong with the Giants. A rookie quarterback is the answer. The Giants absolutely suck. They are one of the worst organizations in sports and have been for a decade. Their coach is awful. Their roster is a mess. They’ve scored fewer than a single touchdown in two of their three games. And now they are turning to a kid that has no business starting in the NFL. Dart is going to be the 1,003,576th example of a guy that everyone got excited about in the preseason and that immediately flopped in the regular season. If you want to know how important Dart was to Ole Miss, take a look at the numbers that their backup quarterback is putting up this year. So maybe Dart was a product of an offense that just puts up numbers no matter who is under center. The Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL. They are buttoned up on both sides of the ball. They are everything that New York isn’t. I see another embarrassment in store for a Giants team that should be used to it.
2-Unit Play. Take #273 Baltimore (-2.5) over Kansas City (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
4-Unit Play. Take #275 Green Bay (-6.5) over Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The Packers are a little banged up right now. There is still no doubt who the better team is, though. The Cowboys defense is a joke. If Matt Eberlus didn’t prove what an incompetent moron he was in his time in Chicago he’s really cementing his legacy here with the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed 68 points to the Giants and Bears the last two weeks – hardly two powerhouse offenses – and Green Bay is better than both of those attacks. The Packers defense should be able to suffocate a Cowboys offense that is playing without its best players, CeeDee Lamb, and I think the home crowd will be ready to turn on The Boys when a motivated Micah Parsons racks up his second or third sack.
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #258 New England (+1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m.) AND Take #265 L.A. Chargers (+0.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #262 Detroit (-2.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m.) AND Take #271 Chicago (+8) over Las Vegas (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #275 Green Bay (+0.5) over Dallas (8 p.m.) AND Take #280 Denver (-0.5) over Cincinnati (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #253 Philadelphia (+3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m.) AND Take #273 Baltimore (+4.5) over Kansas City (4 p.m.)
This Week’s Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 48.0 New Orleans at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Cleveland at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Jacksonville at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.5 Chicago at Las Vegas (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 48.5 Baltimore at Kansas City (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #280 Denver (-7.5) over Cincinnati (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 29)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.0 Cincinnati at Denver (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 29)
The Broncos haven’t played well in any of their three games. I think they will get a bump here playing at home in primetime. The Bengals are a trainwreck. I said last week that they were by far the worst 2-0 team in the NFL and they went out and got pasted 48-10 by Carson Wentz and the Vikings. I don’t see why it will be different here. Jake Browning isn’t Joe Burrow. This Denver defense is woefully overrated. They are still pretty good, though. And the Broncos should be able to snap out of their offensive funk against a Bengals defense that is among the 2-3 worst that I’ve seen this year.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Cincinnati at Denver (8 p.m.) AND Take #280 Denver (-0.5) over Cincinnati (8 p.m.)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
3-Unit Play. Take #263 Tennessee Titans (+7.5) Over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, September 21)This Titans team is better than most expected and think Texans aren't as we thought they would be. Just can’t see this game being more than a FG one way or other as Stroud continues his season long struggles. Take Tennessee to cover the spread in week 4.
4-Unit Play. Take #271 Chicago (+1) Over Las Vegas (4:25 p.m., Sunday, September 21)
The Bears showed the real talent in week 3 win and if they didn’t fall apart in game one this team would be 2-1. If that was the case we would see Chicago favored by -3, will take the odds break with an underrated Bears bunch. Vegas just hasn’t been good and even at home don’t see it changing this week. Take Chicago Bears to win and cover this week.
6-Unit Play. Take #275 Green Bay (-6.5) Over Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, September 21)
Micah Parsons revenge spot, we love Green Bay to rally around its super star. Add in Green Bay is upset after letdown late in loss at Cleveland last week, just see this being one sided game this week. Dallas is banged up as well. Take Green Bay to win and cover this week.
2-Unit Play. Take 6 Point Teaser: Jets (+8.5) over Miami & Over (38.5) Cincinnati vs Denver (Monday, September 22)
Little teaser on the two MNF games, think Jets can win this game + think Bengals defense is terrible. Enjoy the teaser MNF.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
4-Unit Play. Take #102 Arizona (+1.5) vs Seattle (8:15 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 25) This line flipped from Cardinals being favored to Seahawks now favored. Long-time followers know I love to dig deeper when this happens and often fade the moves like this. That is the case again here as I roll with the Cardinals. Seattle over-valued after blasting the Saints last week in a game in which the Seahawks only had a slim yardage edge as the 44-13 final was deceiving. Remember Seattle also struggled to move the ball much in their loss to San Francisco as well. So, the Seahawks over-valued off B2B wins here (other against an overvalued Steelers team - look at their stats this season) and we catch the Cardinals off their first loss of the season - a tight defeat at the hands of the Niners. Perfect set-up plus the Cards are on a strong long-term run both SU and ATS in home games which dates back to last October. This includes 6-1 SU with the lone loss to these division rival Seahawks. In fact, the Cardinals lost both games with Seattle last season. Fantastic double revenge spot here. 4* ARIZONA +1.53-Unit Play. Take #251 Minnesota (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Sept. 28) LONDON is where this one takes place which is why it has such an early start time. Also, this is another line flipper as the Steelers were originally favored and now the Vikings are a 2.5 point favorite as of Thursday morning. In this case I am actually on the same side as the move here! In fact, this would be an even stronger play if it were not for the Vikings QB situation. The Steelers are 2-1 but statistically (based on yardage) they have not impressed on either side of the ball. Pittsburgh's wins were against the Jets and Patriots and those two teams are 1-5 and could be in for long seasons! Minnesota is 2-1 and they handed the Bengals (granted, without Burrow) their only loss plus their comeback win over Chicago looks a little more impressive now after the Bears demolished Dallas last week. Statistically the Vikings rank very high on defense based on yardage allowed. Also, Carson Wentz performed well at QB last week and can be a solid game manager here again this week. That said, the much better defense of the Vikings is going to be the difference here and don't be surprised if they give Aaron Rogers and Company some problems here. The Vikes pull away as this game goes along and I look for the Steelers to be exposed here as their stats do not correlate with their 2-1 record. 3* MINNESOTA -2.5
3-Unit Play. Take #254 Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs Philadelphia (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28) We faded the Eagles last week and suffered one of the all-time worst beats ever as we had the LA Rams +3.5 and they were down just 1 as they took a field goal try on the final play of the game. Inexplicably, the Eagles not only blocked the kick but ran it in for a touchdown and Philadelphia got one of the most unlikely and luckiest covers you will ever see in your life. Now, that certainly doesn't make going against Philly an automatic the next week but, if the situation is right, it makes perfect sense! That is the case here. The Buccaneers have had the Eagles number. They knocked them out of the post-season in January of 2024 and so the Eagles had revenge last season yet the Bucs beat them again! I like Baker Mayfield and Company to get the job done here. They are at home and catching 3.5 points and are already used to tight games as all 3 of theirs have been decided by 3 or less points - all Bucs wins. I am fully expecting the outright win but if they fall short I would expect it to be by a FG or less! Statistically (based on yardage) the Buccaneers rank better on both sides of the ball. Baker Mayfield has a right biceps injury but, as of Thursday, he is trending the right direction. Also, even though Mike Evans is likely to still be out, Chris Godwin is on track to return this week and that strengthens the WR group for Mayfield. This is a great home dog spot against a quality, yet over-rated, Eagles side! 3* TAMPA BAY +3.5
4-Unit Play. Take #273 Baltimore (-2.5) at Kansas City (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28) The Chiefs finally got the win but the yardage was roughly equal in their 22-9 win at New York over a Giants team that is now 0-3 this season. The Ravens, on the other hand, might be one of the best 1-2 NFL teams ever! In all seriousness they never should have lost week 1 at Buffalo and then their loss Monday was against a very strong Lions team. Baltimore is much better than their record shows and I still feel the Chiefs are on the way down this season. Kansas City is simply not as strong as their teams in past seasons. Also, speaking of those past seasons, the Ravens have lost the last two meetings including one in the post-season so a little payback is in order here! I know the Ravens are on a short week but they will be fired up off the loss and also seeking revenge against these Chiefs. The situation for KC is not ideal either as they were back east for that game against the Giants. KC likely will have WR Xavier Worthy back for this one but their issues go beyond that. This Ravens defense is better than they have shown thus far and I expect a big bounce back effort here from Baltimore off a loss. The Ravens are a perfect 5-0 SU (including 1-0 this season) when they enter a game off a loss. 4* BALTIMORE -2.5
6-Unit Play. Take #275 Green Bay (-6.5) at Dallas (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28) The Packers are 2-1 this season and handed two quality teams, Detroit and Washington, their only losses thus far. Now Green Bay enters this game off a tough loss at Cleveland however and that means a huge effort is likely on the road in this one as the Packers visit Dallas. Certainly Green Bay is going to be fired up here and they face a Cowboys team that easily could be 0-3 SU and ATS this season. Dallas did cover against the Eagles in Week 1 but the Eagles lost one of their best defensive players before the first play from scrimmage as a result of a spitting incident! Then in Week 2, the Cowboys had to have a miracle comeback to force OT and beat the Giants in a non-covering win. Then, last week, Dallas got hammered by the Bears in a game in which turnovers also fueled the rout. But the fact is the Cowboys are just not crisp on either side of the ball and they are going to be exposed here by an angry Packers side that also is known for dominating the Cowboys in recent years with 5 straight wins and covers including 2-0 with Jordan Love at QB. Also, one can expect edge rusher Micah Parsons to have a huge game against his former team! He and the Packer defense are going to be dialed up and they want to make up for last week's disappointing loss versus Cleveland where they let the game slip away. Huge effort here from the road team. 6* GREEN BAY -6.5
5-Unit Play. Take #280 Denver (-7.5) vs Cincinnati (8:15 p.m., Monday, Sept. 29) The Broncos are off B2B tight losses to the Colts and Chargers. Those two teams both are 3-0 on the season and undefeated. Denver has trouble closing out games but that won't be an issue here back at home and facing a Bengals team without starting QB Joe Burrow. Cincinnati just got destroyed last week at Minnesota and they were fortunate to win the week before. The Bengals are just not the same team without Burrow at the controls. Also statistically they rank poorly on both sides of the ball and this Cincy defense just can not be trusted. That is why this 1-2 Denver team is favored by 7 points plus the hook as of mid-day Thursday. Don't let the line of 7.5 scare you off. This one is set this way for a reason and the Broncos are in a great spot back home off B2B tight road losses. Bo Nix and Company respond here and Denver gets a big home win. The Bengals turnovers were a big issue last week and that could be the case again here as the Broncos just won the turnover battle 2-0 last week as well. Cincinnati is just a bit "off" without their leader Burrow. Denver has covered 5 straight ATS when they entered a game off B2B losses. Overall at home the Broncos have covered 7 of the last 8 when they are a home favorite. Those trends continue here! 5* DENVER -7.5
Thanks for joining and best of luck always,
Scott Rickenbach
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
4-Unit Play. Take #264 Houston Texans +7 @ DK over Tennessee Titans (Sunday @ 1:00pm est)We have another clash of winless squads, and this feels like the perfect setup for Houston to finally deliver a statement win. The Texans are at home and the number sitting at 7 makes sense because this matchup tilts in their favor. Tennessee has not shown much life and continues to look flat on both sides of the ball. Houston has been waiting for the right spot to put together a complete game, and this is it. The defense should be able to create chances, and the offense has the talent to capitalize. It is never easy to trust a team laying a touchdown when they have not won yet, but this one feels different. Houston rolls and covers with room to spare.
4-Unit Play. Take #267 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ DK over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
Not sure how the 49ers are sitting at 3-0, but that is the reality, and now they face a sneaky tough test against Jacksonville. The Jaguars come in at 2-1 and look like a team starting to find its stride. There is also the big question of who will line up under center for San Francisco with the possibility of being down to a third string option. That kind of uncertainty makes a spread of 3.5 feel a little heavy. Jacksonville has the weapons and balance to keep this game tight and could even steal it outright. Even if the upset does not happen, this looks like a field goal type of contest which gives us value on the Jags.
4-Unit Play. Take #277 New York Jets +2.5 @ DK over Miami Dolphins (Monday @ 7:15pm est)
Both teams come into this one winless, but not all 0-3 starts are created equal. The Jets have at least been competitive and managed to cover in two of their three games, which shows they are scrapping to stay in it. Miami on the other hand has only managed to cover once and has struggled to put together a complete effort. The Dolphins being at home helps, but that does not suddenly erase the issues that have kept them from getting over the hump. The Jets should be able to hang around and make this a close fight. Getting 2.5 points feels like a solid edge in what looks like a coin flip matchup. We will ride with New York to cover.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #43 Unit Play. Take #268 San Francisco -3 over Jacksonville (4:05p.m., Sunday September 28 FOX)
Last week we had the 49ers on the road to the Cardinals and San Fran won but didn’t cover. This week are playing the 49ers again but this home they are at home. Last week the Jaguars won at home against Houston, but the Jags couldn’t run the ball, and Trevor Lawrence had to throw the ball 40 times. Lawrence has thrown 3 interceptions in two games and if the Jags can’t protect the ball this week, I see the 49ers winning by 6-points or more.
5 Unit Play. Take #275 Green Bay -6.5 over Dallas (8:20p.m., Sunday September 28 NBC)
Don’t forget last year in the playoffs at Jerry’s World the Green Bay Packers beat the Cowboys 48-32 and Green Bay has owned this series winning 9 out 10 games. Last Sunday the Packers lost on the road to the lonely Browns 13-10 and I see them putting another beat down in Dallas. The Cowboys struggled last week on the road against the Bears and with CeeDee Lamb out for a while look for Dallas to struggle on offense. The Cowboys defense has been their weak spot and look for Love and the Packers offense to expose the Boys secondary all game long. With the Packers 5-0 ATS against Dallas and 5-1 ATS when playing their second of consecutive road games.
Tony George
NFL
9/25/25
4 Units
#101 Seattle (-1.5) over Arizona *8:15 EST
Always tricky to play road teams on Thursday but this Cardnial team is beat up especially in the secondary. Seattle is better than you think folks. The have the #2 scoring defense in the NFL and #5 scoring offense. Walker is a stud at RB and they have a trio of WR’s that will stretch the field against a weak secondary here. Also bear in mind RB Conners for Zona is out for the year. QB Murray for Zona also has serious issues being accurate with his passing and this defense will smother the Cards offense in my opinion. Moneyline is -125 if you want the points out of it.
Sunday
9/28/25
7 Units
#270 LA Rams (-3.5) over Indianapolis *4 EST
The Colts are a nice story no doubt and a suropise at QB in Jones this year. HOWEVER they have beat two teams who are complete dumnpster fire in Tennessee and Miami and needed a last second penalty and 15 yards to kick a field goal against Denver to win with no time left. The Rams off an unreal debacle and loss at Philly blowing a 26-7 lead. They got complacent and blew it. Have no illusions they will come out with purpose here and I like McVay coaching off a game like that at home with a better team. The Rams defense dominated Philly in the first half and for some reason juat laid down in the second half of that game and they will be in a bad mood. Indy is not without merit with a good OL and RB Taylor, but this is the best team they have seen all year to date and it is on the road. The hook on the 3.5 can be bought down to lay -120 which is what I did but I expect a win by a TD here.
3 Units
#255 / #266 LA Chargers / NY Giants (UNDER 43.5) *1 EST
Rookie QB start for NY as Dart gets the nod. Not sure what he can add to an offense that is not good against a great Charger defense. Harbaugh will run it right at NY despite Harris out for the season, something KC could not do against a run defense that is not all that good. Throw out the Dallas game whose defense is deplorable and the NY scored 6 and 9 points in their other 2 games. Play the Under.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120) *1 EST
3 Units
Tease #264 Houston DOWN to (-1) and Tease #275 Green Bay DOWN to (-0.5)
Monday Night Football
9/29/25
3 Units
#277 / #278 NY Jets / Miami (OVER 44.5) *7:15 EST
The Jets have given up points this year and Miami cannot stop anyone on defense. 93 points allowed in 3 games for New York, that is brutal. Miami is desperate and I think they pull out all the stops here to get a win. Miami does have firepower, Neither defense is impressive and in a conference game both will be gunning for a win here. Fields is going to start for NY and mobile QB’s have given the Dolphins fits. I see both teams in the mid to high 20’s here. Play the Over
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120) BOTH GAMES TONIGHT *7:15 EST
2 Units
Tease #277 NY UP to (+8.5) and Teaser #280 Denver Down to (-1.5)
Vernon Croy
4-Unit Play: #262 Detroit -9.5-110 over Cleveland (Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00pm ET)Take Detroit ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. Detroit is hands down the better team here especially at home and I do expect them to put up a very big number Sunday. Cleveland is coming off an impressive victory against a very good Green Bay team despite being 7.5-point underdogs however this is an extremely tough spot for them on the road Sunday. Detroit is coming off an impressive victory at Baltimore and I look for them to build on that. Play Detroit ATS
4-Unit Play: #259 Washington -1-110 over Atlanta (Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Washington ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Washington in the spot on the road. Washington is the better overall team on both sides of the ball. Atlanta is coming off a 30-point blowout loss against a mediocre Carolina team. Mariota Just completed 71.4% of his passes against Las Vegas and I do expect a solid outing from him Sunday if Daniels can't go. Play Washington ATS
6-Unit Play: #253 Philadelphia -3.5-110 over Tampa Bay (Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Philadelphia ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Philadelphia in the spot as they are the superior team on both sides of the ball. This is a red-hot Philadelphia team having won 9 straight game dating back to last season and they simply do whatever it takes to win. Philadelphia has also played much tougher opponents than Tampa Bay has had to face this season. I do expect to see Hurts best game of the season here Sunday and they will be able to move the ball against this Tampa Bay defense. Play Philadelphia ATS
5-Unit Play: #275 Green Bay -6.5-110 over Dallas (Sunday, September 28, 2025, 8:20pm ET)
Take Green Bay ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this is a big bounce back spot for Green Bay on the road Sunday. Green Bay is the superior team and unfortunately, they got caught looking ahead to this game last week taking Cleveland lightly. The Dallas secondary is really banged up coming into this game and I expect Green Bay to put up a big number. Play Green Bay ATS
7-Unit Play: #278 Miami -2.5-120 over New York (Monday, September 29, 2025, 7:15pm ET)
Take Miami ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like the spot for Miami here Monday night. This Miami team is much better than the record indicates and they have converted over 54% of their third downs this season which ranks first in the NFL. I really feel like this is a breakout game for this Miami team offensively against this Jets defense. New York has allowed at least 29 points in each of their games this season and I do expect Miami to put up a big number. Play Miami ATS
Scott Spreitzer
6-Unit Play: Take 258 Patriots -5.5 over Panthers (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)Carolina is off what appears to be a big win over Atlanta, at least to the naked eye. But the Panthers were out-first downed, out-rushed 131-110, and finished with 114 passing yards, while allowing 201. Carolina was out-gained 332-to-224 and allowed 5.63 yards per play while gaining 4.14. So, of course they won 30-0 in the wild & crazy week that was NFL week-3. I’m not a big angle guy but this one makes sense: Carolina is 1-2, playing .333 football. Bad teams who’re on the road following an outright underdog win by more than 20 points have won just three of their next 25 games outright – and here’s the kicker: they were out-scored by 11 ppg in those 25 games. The Pats dominated Pittsburgh last week but a minus-four turnover margin did them in. New England suffered a turnover at the Pittsburgh 2-yard line after driving 92 yards on one possession and suffered yet another turnover, once again, just six feet from paydirt. New England wakes up and Carolina faces reality. I’m laying the points with the Patriots. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 260 Falcons +1.5 over Commanders (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
Washington QB Jayden Daniels is officially listed as questionable but we’re playing against the Commanders whether he plays or not. I just wrote about Atlanta’s 30-0 loss to the Panthers in the above write-up, so no reason to rehash it here. According to reports at the time of this writing, QB Penix is expected to start for the Falcons but I would expect a quick hook if ATL’s offense sputters again. I also expect Bijan Robinson to get going early and often on Sunday. He rushed for 215 yards combined on over six yards per carry against the Vikings & Panthers. The better the ground game, the better the passing game can succeed against Washington. I truly expect the Falcons’ focus on the ground game will open things up for receivers London & Pitts. I’m taking the points with Atlanta. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 270 Rams -3.5 over Colts (4:05 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
Hats off to the Colts for their 3-0, buttoned down start to the season. Having said that, they were extremely fortunate to beat Denver in week-2 and had the good fortune of playing Tennessee and Miami. The Rams present a much tougher test. Los Angeles has a dominant defense, (outside of a quarter against Philly), and they own the best offensive weaponry Indianapolis will have faced in four weeks of football. The Rams are on a 16-2 run as a money-line favorite, winning the games they’re expected to, and doing so by more than 7 ppg on average. I’m laying the points with the Rams. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
7-Unit Play - (102) Arizona Cardinals +1.5 over Seattle Seahawks (9/25 | 8:15PM EST) Both teams are 2-1 SU with a common loss vs. the 49ers. The Seahawks have the better metrics, but the market is getting a little carried away. FWIW; teams that have worse YPP margin numbers than their opponent, are covering at a 61% clip for a +15.7% in primetime games when listed as the underdog of less than a FG. They are actually the ones winning the games by an average of 28.6 to 25.6 while winning in rushes, rushing yards, completions, and turnovers. We should also note that Kyler Murray ranks higher than Sam Darnold so far this season when looking at in-depth metrics (despite a worse Comp %).4-Unit Play - (256) Buffalo Bills -15 -110 over New Orleans Saints (9/28 | 1:00PM EST) This is a huge number, especially considering the Bills struggled vs. the Dolphins last week. However, this is historically a very good spot with extra prep time. Teams that are undefeated, now listed as more than 14 point favorites, vs. opponents that are winless; are an incredible 15-6 ATS (71.4%) all-time for a +36.4% ROI.
Strike Point Sports
5-Unit Play. Take #265 Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)This one is a big mismatch. Yes, the Giants are going to Jackson Dart to jump start their season, but this is a brutal game for him to get the call. The Chargers defensive schemes will give Dart fits all game long and he just doesn’t have enough time to be ready for what they will throw at him. New York is undisciplined and it is their undoing. The Giants just continue to get crushed by poor redzone play, and dumb defensive penalties, which the Chargers do just the opposite. Los Angeles squeaked out a win over their division rival Denver Broncos last weekend, but they dominated the stat sheet. That game should not have been that close. This one won’t be. The Chargers win by double-figures with ease here, so lay the points on the road team.
2-Unit Play. Take #275 Green Bay (-6.5) over Dallas (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
This is a “get right” game for the Packers. Oddly enough, last weekend was a bad spot for them. They took the Browns for granted and it showed. Cleveland’s defense was absolutely good enough to keep them in the game, and they proved it. Dallas meanwhile is a disaster on the defensive side of the football. The Packers are going to be able to move the ball with ease, and on the other side Micah Parsons is ready to attack his old teammates. Green Bay is third in the NFL in yards per game against, while Dallas is third from the bottom giving up nearly 400 yards a game. Don’t dwell on that Browns game. Cleveland got the Packers off of two huge home wins (Lions and Commanders), and they took advantage of that spot. The Cowboys, even at home, won’t be able to do that. Dallas has only beaten the Giants, and it was because New York gave that game away. Lay the number here as the Packers win this one by 10+ points.
2-Unit Play. Take #280 Denver (-7.5) over Cincinnati (8:20 p.m., Monday, Sept. 29)
The Broncos need this game in the worst way. I really like the Chargers to take down the Giants this weekend, and if the Broncos don’t take care of business they are in big trouble in the AFC West after just four weeks. Denver has had two just brutal losses the last few weeks, and they know that a great showing is a must. The Broncos are desperate, but this is a great spot as they are back at home against a Cincy team that was just completely exposed. Minnesota forced Browning and the Bengals into multiple turnovers, and they provided the blueprint for the Broncos defense to do the same here. Denver can win this game by 10+ points with ease and they will do just that. Lay the number here as Denver wins 31-17.
2-Unit Play. 6-Point Teaser - Take #275 Green Bay (-0.5) over Dallas (8:20 p.m.) and Take #280 Denver (-1.5) over Cincinnati (8:20 p.m., Monday)
2-Unit Play. 6-Point Teaser - Take #265 Los Angeles Chargers (-0.5) over New York (1 p.m.) and #252 Pittsburgh (+8.5) over Minnesota (9:30 a.m.)
Note: The Pittsburgh/Minnesota game is in Dublin, IRL
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Sunday September 28th 2025-NFL-
7 Unit Play Take #260 Atlanta +1.5 over Washington (1:00pm est):
It's always a good idea to look to back a team in the NFL after being shutout and also off an ugly 30+ point loss and Atlanta falls into both of those categories. The Falcons are a solid team that should have won their week one game over Tampa Bay then dominated Minnesota the following week on the road. Last week was a different story though as they were embarrassed by Carolina losing 30-0 to the Panthers. A closer look shows that Atlanta actually played much better than the final score as they had more than 100+ yards of offense than Carolina but was done in by lots of things from missed field goals to turnovers, etc... This feels like a HUGE focused effort here considering they are on a bye next week so I think they step up in a big way.
Take Atlanta.
5 Unit Play Take #273 Baltimore -2.5 over Kansas City (4:25pm est):
Baltimore was badly embarrassed at home on Monday night football last week to the Detroit Lions. It wasn't so much the loss that the Ravens suffered on MNF as it was the way they were defeated as they were physically dominated by the Lions and that's something that almost never happens to this proud franchise that's also loaded with a ton of big time veteran players with a ton of pride. I expect Baltimore steps up in a big way here in this one as they face off here against what clearly looks to be an overrated Kansas City team. Something just feels off about the Chiefs so far this season as they once again didn't look good last game despite their win over a bad New York Giants team.
Play Baltimore minus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #254 Tampa Bay +3.5 over Philadelphia (1:00pm est):
Tampa Bay has this reputation currently that they have been lucky but they were the unlucky team last week against New York as the Bucs were the much better team who almost blew a big lead to the Jets. Tampa Bay is slowing starting to get back some key players from injury and this is the exact type of game they do well in as they have a solid passing game that can score and cover a s bigger underdogs. Philadelphia somehow pulled out the win last week versus the Los Angeles Rams. Something appears off to me about this Eagles team right now especially with their offense. This is asking a lot to go on the road and win by this type of margin.
Take Tampa Bay plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #251 Minnesota -2.5 over Pittsburgh (9:30am est):
The Pittsburgh Steelers come into this game with a 2-1 record overall this year but they very easily could be 0-3 this season as they once again pulled a rabbit out of their hats last week. The Steelers look like an old team to me on both sides of the football and one that's hanging on by a thread. Minnesota looked way better with Carson Wentz behind center last Sunday and I think the betting markets haven't given them a big enough upgrade since losing JJ McCarthy at QB. The Vikings have a very aggressive defense that should give the weak Steelers offensive line lots of problems in this one. The Vikings out of the NFC and we have seen some convincing evidence so far this season that the AFC North is having lots of issues with the NFC right now as Detroit manhandled Baltimore on the road, Minnesota crushed Cincinnati, Seattle went on the road and easily took care of Pittsburgh and the lone NFC loss to an AAFC North squad was Green Bay at Cleveland in a game that the Packers looked to be the clear cut better team for most of the contest until a late game collapse.
Play Minnesota minus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #268 San Francisco -3 over Jacksonville (4:05pm est):
-3 is at Bookmaker, BetOnline, SouthPoint
I think San Francisco will go with starter Brock Purdy at quarterback in this one. I like the NFC way more than the AFC this year and this game is a great example of that as the Niners come out of arguably the best division in football (NFC West) and go up here against a Jacksonville team out of the weak AFC West. San Francisco does have some injuries right now but I make them a few points higher than this and think they have a big edge in this one overall. The Jags have shown some fight so far this year but they aren't getting good QB play and I think they are a few notches below SF overall.
Take San Francisco minus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
6 Unit Play - Take #260 Atlanta Falcons (+1) Over WSH Commanders. (1:00p.m, Sunday, September 28th)Huge discrepancy here with this line. Washington is coming off a pounding win over the Raiders last week, and Marcus Mariota looked absolutely sensational. Mariota went 15-21 for 207 yards and 1 TD. He was good on his feet, poised in the pocket, and looked like a full-on veteran. Atlanta just lost 30-0 against perhaps the worst publicly known team in the NFL (Carolina). Penix went 18-36 passing for 172 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 picks. The crazy thing is, Atlanta out-yarded Carolina in that game 332 yards to 224 yards. Atlanta lost that game on turnovers, penalties, and fumbles. We expect all of this to be cleaned up here Sunday, and we don't believe Washington is going to be able to sustain this dominance. This is a massive step in class, going from the Raiders to Atlanta. This will be the start of Washington’s back-to-back road matchups, obviously dealing with Atlanta first, followed up by a very strong Chargers team. Daniels is still banged up and questionable to play. Either way, we see this as a nonfactor. Mariota looked just as good as Daniels last week, and despite the tremendous season Daniels is coming off of, we expect some regression in Atlanta, as this team is leading nearly every metric on the defensive side in bold. 2nd in total yards against, 1st against the pass, 10th against the rush, and 13th when it comes to points against. Washington is a passing team, and they have question marks entering this game on the pass. We believe Atlanta utilizes home-field advantage and takes this game extremely personally after last week's embarrassing loss. Let's take the +1 point even though we believe this to be a strong outright winner.
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #271 Chicago Bears (+1) Over LV Raiders. (4:25p.m, Sunday, September 28th)
Okay, let's start this off by stating, if you were on my play last week, we saw how bad the Las Vegas Raiders truly are this season. Pete Carroll is doing everything he can to bring back the charisma of him and Geno Smith, and it’s just not panning out. Las Vegas finds a way to make a mistake about everything. Geno Smith is a panicked QB and cannot sit patiently in the pocket. This game is going to be won by the Chicago Bears defense. We saw If you put pressure on Geno, he hits the panic button and starts throwing stuff up. This is something Geno has struggled with his entire career, and that’s why he is such a turnover machine. Las Vegas has a terrible offensive line on top of this. Chicago, from a metric standpoint, has a terrible defense, but this is not true whatsoever. The Bears have had 3 games this season and played 2 very tough teams with Minnesota and Detroit. Dallas is sluggish this year, but their prime spot is obviously offensive, which made no print last Sunday against Chicago. Chicago has a very strong defensive interior. They are stacked at the linebacker position, and their secondary is hit or miss. We believe the secondary to be a hit here against Geno Smith, who’s already thrown 4 picks this season. We also believe Ben Johnson might have corked the lid to this offense and believe they are going to show out on Sunday. The run game is the Bears' weakest link offensively, but we saw some success last week. The biggest thing is going to be containing Crosby on the defensive side. We believe Ben Johnson will have the Chicago Bears ready here. Bears fans every single year say, “This is our year. This is our year.” With a win here, Chicago is back at 2-2 and contenders in the NFC North. This game could not have bigger implications for the Bears. For the first time in many years, I believe the Chicago Bears are up for the task. This is not a homer pick by any means. We have seen one team erratically flip the script upside down. We have seen 1 team sit as a falling knife with one win over a very unprepared Patriots team. We love the Bears here and believe they take this game personally.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7 Unit – Take #267 Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over SF 49ers (-115) (4:05p.m, Sunday, September 28th)Somehow, the 49ers come into this matchup 3-0 despite being riddled with injuries. Backup quarterback Mac Jones has helped them get off to the fast start, but the latest blow came with Nick Bosa now out for the season. This week, they face a 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars team that hasn’t exactly impressed either, edging out the Texans 17-10 last week. The 49ers are 2-0 in their division after squeaking past Arizona 16-15, but with a Thursday night divisional showdown against the Rams looming, this feels like a classic look-ahead spot. The injuries are piling up, the schedule is tight, and this group could be stretched thin. One glaring issue for San Francisco has been their ground game. Averaging just 89 rushing yards per contest, they rank 26th in the NFL forcing Mac Jones to shoulder too much of the offense through the air. That’s a dangerous formula in this league, especially against a quality defense. This matchup boils down to quarterback play, and I’ll side with Trevor Lawrence over Mac Jones every time. Lawrence has the talent and weapons to make a statement here, and Jacksonville has a chance to show they’re the team to beat in the AFC South. The Jaguars can keep this close throughout and even have a legitimate shot at the outright win. To play it safe, though, we’ll take the points with Jacksonville +3.5 against San Francisco.
Take #267 Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over SF 49ers (-115)
Nick Menken
4 Unit – Take #260 ATL Falcons (+1.5) over WSH Commanders (-110) (1:00p.m, Sunday, September 28th)
Washington enters this matchup riding high after a 41-24 win over the Raiders last week. Marcus Mariota looked sharp, completing 15 of 21 passes for over 200 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off an ugly 30-0 loss to Carolina, a game that made them look like an easy fade to the public. But don’t be fooled by last week’s result. Atlanta’s defense is far better than they showed against the Panthers. Through three games, the Falcons rank second in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (245) and first against the pass. That’s a massive step up in competition for Mariota after torching a porous Raiders defense. Washington could also be caught looking ahead with an unbeaten Chargers team on deck next week. That makes this a potential letdown spot, especially against an Atlanta squad that already showed what they can do at home in their Monday night win over Minnesota in Week 2. Expect quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to bounce back after a tough road outing, while Atlanta’s secondary keeps Mariota in check. This is a great spot for the Falcons to remind people they’re no pushover. We’re taking Atlanta +1.5 at home against Washington.
Take #260 ATL Falcons (+1.5) over WSH Commanders (-110)
Nick Menken
1 Unit – Take #258 New England Patriots (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers (-110) (1:00p.m, Sunday, September 28th)
The Carolina Panthers are coming off a blowout win over Atlanta, but now find themselves as 5.5-point underdogs on the road in New England. The Patriots, meanwhile, dropped a 21-14 game to the Steelers last week and are still searching for their first home win after starting 0-2 in Foxborough. It’s easy to see why many bettors will look at Carolina plus the points after last week’s performance. But digging deeper, this sets up as a great bounce-back spot for New England. The Patriots currently rank 11th in the NFL in total offense, averaging 362 yards per game. Against Pittsburgh, they dominated possession and did nearly everything right except finish the job on the scoreboard. With Mike Vrabel at the helm and a struggling Carolina team coming in, this is a prime opportunity for New England to reset their season. Expect the Patriots to be prepared, focused, and ready to finally notch their first home win of the year. We’re backing New England to win and cover against the Panthers.
Take #258 New England Patriots (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers (-110)
Nick Menken
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