Free NFL Props Predictions - Week 3
by Jay Horne - 9/24/2009
We kicked of our season for side bets at a profitable 2-1 mark last week in the NFL. Adrian Peterson failed to reach the century mark in somewhat of a letdown performance after racking up 180 yards in the opener. If not for Jay Cutler stepping up in Chicago, I may have had a perfect sweep considering the Cowboys and Giants battled in a back-and-forth affair without allowing three straight scores by a single team. However, we will quickly turn our focus to this week's earliest betting lines and try and jump on some of the side action before they are no longer available with hopes to have another advantageous week against the books. Call this the "Yes Week" based on the predictions:
Prop Bet#1 - Will Colts WR Reggie Wayne score a touchdown against the Cardinals?
Reggie Wayne is another player who had a big opener, catching 10 passes for 162 yards in the Colts' opening game, before suffering a letdown in numbers in Week 2. Wayne caught just three passes for 37 yards in a Monday night win over Miami. Peyton Manning and the offense now travel to Arizona in a classic battle between two of the best veteran quarterbacks in the game. Surely Arizona will have success through the air as they rely on the passing game and so should the Colts against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed over 220 yards passing each year since 2005. For the Colts, Wayne is expected to have a big year now the Marvin Harrison is out of the picture and this has to be the game he bounces back if he is going to post big numbers this year. Wayne has also played very well against NFC teams catching touchdown pass in 9 of his last 11 games against NFC opponents. Points are destined in this game and the Colts rushing game has reached the phase of extinction meaning the seven-point scores will likely come from the arm of Manning. The Colts wide receivers will have to catch some touchdown passes and Wayne will catch at least one if not more.
Pick - Yes
Prop Bet#2 - Will Tony Romo throw an interception against the Panthers?
If you are a Cowboys fan or even if you are not, you know Tony Romo has been subject to interceptions through his career. Romo has the risky gunslinger mentality of a Brett Farve who is another quarterback famous for not only throwing touchdowns, but interceptions as well. Romo threw three picks in last week's loss to the Giants along with some other dangerous passes. Dallas now gets the luxury of taking on the Carolina Panthers in a must needed win for both teams. The Cowboys trying to get back on foot in the NFC while the Panthers, who led the NFC at the end of the regular season in 2008 at 12-4, are trying to get their first win. The Panthers are sure to play well as they will be hungry for their first win. Carolina has struggled on offense, but what usually turns momentum around is their defense. Expect the Panthers defense to be a fierce bunch this week with some extra motivation to force turnovers. Given Romo's knack for throwing picks, the Panthers should be able to force a pick despite just having two interceptions all year. However, if Romo does not start making smarter passes the interceptions will take a toll once again this week. The Cowboys quarterback has also thrown a pick in three of four games following a three-interception performance throughout his career and has only not thrown an interception in just six games dating back to the 2006 season. The odds may not be profitable, but this should be a safe bet.
Pick - Yes
Prop Bet #3 - Jacksonville at Houston - Will either team score in the first 6½ minutes of the game?
The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored just 29 points in two games thanks to an offense that lacks playmakers. The slow start has resulted into a 0-2 record and a dismal outlook on the rest of the season. The Jaguars travel to Houston and take on one of the most underrated offenses in the league this Sunday. The Texans got their first victory of the season last week with a 34-31 win over Tennessee and have hopes of a breakout season. Despite Jacksonville's slow offense, when theses two AFC South teams collide they tend to put up points. In the last eight meetings, the Texans and Jaguars have averaged 47 total points per game in surprisingly high scoring affairs. Also, in four of the last six of those meetings a team has scored within the first seven minutes of the game. Considering how dangerous Houston is with the football, they can be expected to score on any possession. The Jaguars running game factors into the situation as well. Maurice Jones-Drew is yet to impress this year with only 163 yards a game over rushing defenses that ranked 16th and 24th in 2008. If the Jaguars get the ball first it is unlikely they will eat up the clock on the ground. Expect Garrard to go to the air early and if they do find success they should be able to pull out some points. However, the likely scenario is Houston's offense takes off or the Jaguars offense is shut out quickly giving the same dangerous Texans the offense in good field position.
Pick - Yes
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