Free NFL Props Predictions - Week 4
by Jay Horne - 10/2/2009
Our NFL prop bets took a step back last week hitting just 1-2 for the weekend putting us back to even on the season. However, there was a lot of exciting headlines from last week like Brett Farve the "magic man" clutch play against the 49ers and Detroit ending their 19 game winless streak to carry us forward. We have some exciting side action including Brett Farve's anticipated match-up with his former Green Bay Packers along with other profitable bets to consider heading into Week 4 of the NFL.
Prop Bet #1 - Brett Farve - Total Passing Yards Week 4 vs. Green Bay Packers
Over 205 ½
Under 205 ½
For starters, we have some side action for all the Farve lovers that will be tuning in to watch the highly anticipated Monday night battle as the Vikings quarterback takes on his former Green Bay Packers. The public will likely favor the over bet here expecting Farve to perform some more magic and have a season high performance against the team he spent 16 years serving. However, the Vikings remain a running team and last week's heroic performance from their quarterback was the first time he has thrown over 205 yards this season. In fact, Farve averaged just 132.5 yards in his first two games. The fact remains that Farve does not have to be superman for the Vikings to be successful, but rather effective when called upon. Adrian Peterson still carries this team with his legs and will face a Packers defense that has struggled stopping anyone this season. The Packers are allowing 128 yards per game this season against the run and ranked 26th in the NFL in 2008. Peterson will be without any doubt the best running back the Packers will face this season and expect him to have a great day especially since the Vikings tailback has failed to reach the century mark since their opener. Farve may not even attempt 20 passes in this game if the running game exploits the Packers defensive line. Expect Peterson to have a solid day and for Farve's arm to be much less a factor than anticipated.
Pick - Under 205 ½
Prop Bet #2 - Drew Brees - Total Touchdowns Week 4 vs. New York Jets
Over 1 ½ (-200)
Under 1 ½ (+160)
Drew Brees leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 9 on the season. The impressive aspect to that statistic is that all those touchdowns were thrown in the first two weeks of the season. Brees failed to find the end zone last week despite the Saints winning 27-7 and reaching 3-0 on the season. The Saints will now battle the New York Jets who also stand at 3-0 on the season. The Jets defense has looked very strong holding teams to just 11 points per game this season and more importantly has given up just 1 passing touchdown in 3 games. The Jets defense may just be strong enough to foil the Saints offense who is leading the NFL in total yards for the 2nd straight season in a row. However, they are not likely to post any huge numbers against the Jets defense that held Houston's offense to just 7 points. The game should stay rather low scoring and even if the Saints are to have success we bank that the running backs will be responsible for a few of those scores. The Saints running game came out of nowhere last week to record 222 yards on the ground and 3 touchdowns which may mean the Saints spend more effort on the ground again this week. The Saints were held to just 10 points for 3 quarters last week before scoring 17 in the 4th quarter against Buffalo. They will be facing a better defense this week and touchdowns should be rare in this game. The perception here is Brees will bounce back for multiple scores. However, the Jets defense should prevent that from happening in what could be the lowest scoring game the Saints will play to date.
Pick - Under 1 ½
Prop Bet #3 Team to Score First - New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
The New York Giants are undefeated at 3-0 this season as they travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs who are on the exact opposite end of the spectrum at a winless 0-3. The Giants offense has always played well during the first half of the season and is averaging 27 points per game. However, the reason the Giants remain successful throughout the entire season is the play of their defense. The Giants shutout Tampa Bay last week 24-0 and that is not a good indicator for a Chiefs offense who has scored just 24 points in the last two weeks. The Chiefs offense simply lacks the playmakers and they are the only team in the league without a single rushing touchdown this season. Therefore, the only way the Chiefs have been able to score is through the air. Kansas City will now have to accomplish scoring against the Giants pass defense which leads the NFL this season allowing just 124 yards per game. Not only will the Giants defense be too strong for the Chiefs to move the football, but they have also failed to score first in 4 of their last 5 games dating back to the end of 2008. The Giants defense will surely put the clamps on another struggling offense. The Giants have scored first in every game so far this season and that will be the safe bet again this Sunday.
Pick - Giants
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